2011_global_wealth_report—瑞士信贷.ppt

,GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2011_36,Wealth,of nations,Countries differ greatly in the levels and pattern of,wealth holdings.The following pages provide a picture ofthe variety of country circumstances and the range ofexperiences.,While data quality is good in the rich countries that have most of the worlds wealth,when welook more broadly,quality is far from uniform.On the following pages,we highlight some ofthe most interesting countries.All of these have data on mean household wealth andevidence on the distribution of wealth across the population.,Data quality is rated as no worse than“fair,”meaning that there is at least a recent householdsurvey on wealth.In most of the selected countries quality is“good,”meaning that there is anofficial household sector balance sheet as well as an acceptable way to estimate wealthdistribution.A“satisfactory”rating is given when the data are good but somewhat out of date.The accompanying charts summarize some of the most important facts,giving wealth valueson a per adult basis and mainly in terms of US dollars(using official exchange rates).The firstchart shows changes in mean wealth over 200011.Since exchange-rate fluctuations canalter the apparent trend,for each country,we provide an alternative series using its averageUSD exchange rate over the twelve years.A typical pattern is a mild decline in mean wealthfrom 2000 to 2002,an increase to 2006 or 2007,a drop in 2008 and then recovery.Generally,wealth in 2011 is higher than in 2000,but about the same as in 2007.Also,sincemost currencies appreciated against the US dollar over the period,growth of a countryswealth usually does not appear as strong using the average exchange rate.,Countries that show typical features over 200011 include the United States itself(exceptthere is no exchange rate issue),Canada,Denmark,France,and the United Kingdom.Somecountries,notably China,India and Indonesia,show significantly above-average growth.Atthe other extreme,although Japan shows some growth in US dollars it has had a long slowdecline in yen.Experiences after 2007 vary,with the United Kingdom for example showing avery large drop,and Switzerland no decline in 2008 in US dollars.Wealth in most majorOECD economies,including the UK and the USA,has still not reached its 2007 level inconstant exchange-rate terms.Australia,Canada and Germany provide exceptions.Our second chart shows countries breakdown of assets between financial and real(non-financial)forms,as well as mean debt and net worth.On average internationally,financialassets are 52%of total assets,and debt is 15%.There are several countries,however,where financial assets are more important notably the USA and Japan.At the otherextreme,real assets dominate heavily in India and Indonesia,and in Australia and Franceamong rich countries.,Our last chart shows wealth distribution.There are some interesting contrasts.For example,43%of adults in India have less than USD 1,000,whereas this fraction is only 6%in China.Also,some developed countries have significant percentages in the very low wealth ranges,while others have very few.This reflects such factors as availability of credit,includingstudent loans,as well as how many young adults live separately from their parents,makingtheir low wealth more apparent.,USD 0,USD 0,30,0,GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2011_38,United StatesLand of fortunesThe United States has seen fluctuating wealth levels since theyear 2000.Average wealth was close to USD 200,000 at the,Figure 1Wealth per adult over timeUSD 300,000USD 250,000USD 200,000USD 150,000USD 100,000USD 50,000,turn of the century and rose fairly steadily until 2006,before,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,falling as a result of the financial crisis(Figure 1).There hassubsequently been a recovery,but wealth per adult remainsbelow the 2006 level.It is yet to be seen whether recovery willcontinue or if the wealth level in the United States will declineagain in the face of slower growth or a“double-dip”recession.The United States is unusual in having a very highproportion of assets(68%)held in financial form,partlybecause it has a larger number of active shareholders thanother countries.Also,compared with many other OECDcountries,the United States has more economic activity in theprivate rather than public sector,and more outward foreigninvestment both of which rely partly on financing byhouseholds through their ownership of bonds,stocks and otherfinancial instruments.Debts of USD 59,000 per adult are notextreme by international standards.Compared to the wealth distribution in the rest of the world,the US distribution has a high proportion of the population withwealth above USD 100,000.The fraction with wealth at higherlevels is even more disproportionate.The United States has by,Wealth per adultFigure 2Composition of wealth per adultUSD 300,000USD 250,000USD 200,000USD 150,000USD 100,000USD 50,000-USD 50,000-USD 100,000,far the greatest number of members of the top 1%global,Financial,Real,Debts,Net worth,wealth group,accounting for 41%of those with wealthexceeding USD 10 million and 32%of the worlds billionaires.The number of UHNW individuals with wealth above USD 50million is six times that of the next country(China).Figure 3Wealth distribution relative to world(in%)50,Country summary 2011,40,34.4,36.3,PopulationAdult populationGDP,32123466,756,millionmillionUSD per adult,2010,13.9,15.5,Mean wealthMedian wealth,248,39552,752,USD per adultUSD per adult,Total wealthDollar millionaires,58.110,061,trillion USDthousand,USD 1,000,USD 1,000-USD10,000,USD 10,000-USD 100,000,USD 100,000,Top 10%of global wealth holders,94,213,thousand,Top 1%of global wealth holders,12,584,thousand,United States of America,World,Quality of wealth data,good,Source:James Davies,Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks,Credit Suisse GlobalWealth Databook 2011,USD 0,50,0,GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2011_39,JapanContinuing to stagnate,Figure 1Wealth per adult over timeUSD 300,000USD 250,000USD 200,000USD 150,000USD 100,000USD 50,000,In growth terms,Japan has had the least impressive wealthrecord of any G7 country in recent years.It began the centurywith wealth per adult of USD 190,000,almost the highest level,USD 0,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,in the world.Average wealth today is higher in US dollar terms,but about 10%lower when measured in Japanese yen.Thisdecline is due to the combined effect of a lacklusterperformance of equities,low interest rates and investmentincome,a housing market which has been on a downwardtrend since the 1990s,and a reduced saving rate.The decline in property values means that financial wealth isnow the major component of household assets.Debts amountto 15%of total assets,which is about average internationally.Japan has a relatively equal wealth distribution byinternational standards,which together with its high averagewealth means that few individuals have assets below USD10,000.The proportion of the population with wealth aboveUSD 100,000 is almost seven times the global average.At thestart of the decade,the number of Japanese in the top 10%and top 1%of global wealth holders was a close second to thenumber of US members.Japan still retains second place,butlooks set to be overtaken by China in the near future.,Wealth per adultWealth per adult at constant exchange rateFigure 2Composition of wealth per adultUSD 300,000USD 250,000USD 200,000USD 150,000USD 100,000USD 50,000-USD 50,000-USD 100,000,Financial,Real,Debts,Net worth,Figure 3Wealth distribution relative to world(in%),Country summary 2011,7060,59.3,Population,127,million,40,35.7,Adult populationGDPMean wealthMedian wealth,10455,533248,770128,688,millionUSD per adultUSD per adultUSD per adult,302010,0.0,5.0,Total wealth,25.9,trillion USD,Dollar millionairesTop 10%of global wealth holders,3,12168,894,thousandthousand,USD 1,000,USD 1,000-USD10,000,USD 10,000-USD 100,000,USD 100,000,Top 1%of global wealth holders,5,642,thousand,Quality of wealth data,good,Japan,World,Source:James Davies,Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks,Credit Suisse GlobalWealth Databook 2011,USD 0,0,GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2011_40,ChinaStar performer,Figure 1Wealth per adult over timeUSD 25,000USD 20,000USD 15,000USD 10,000USD 5,000,Wealth per adult in China has grown vigorously since the year2000,more than tripling from USD 6,000 to USD 21,000 in2011.Wealth fell by approximately 20%as a result of the,USD 0,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,financial crisis,but has subsequently risen above its pre-crisispeak.The level has increased more in US dollars than in yuan,due to the slow appreciation of Chinas currency,but the mostimportant source of wealth increase is growth in real terms.Chinas total household wealth is now the third highest inthe world,22%behind Japan and 44%ahead of France(infourth place).Due to a high savings rate and relatively welldeveloped financial institutions,a high proportion(51%)ofChinese assets are in financial form compared with other majordeveloping or transition countries.At the same time,privatizedhousing,new construction and rural land are very importantforms of wealth in China,accounting for much of the USD10,470 in real assets per adult.Debt averages just USD 630,which is very small in international terms and more similar tolevels seen in developing rather than developed countries.Although significant inequality is created by the strongurban-rural divide in China,in the year 2000 overall wealthinequality was low both by broad international standards andin comparison to other transition countries.This was due to,Wealth per adultWealth per adult at constant exchange rateFigure 2Composition of wealth per adultUSD 25,000USD 20,000USD 15,000USD 10,000USD 5,000-USD 5,000,such factors as the virtual absence of inherited fortunes,and,Financial,Real,Debts,Net worth,relatively equal division of both rural land and privatized housing.Wealth inequality has been rising,strongly however,with theincreasing wealth of successful entrepreneurs,professionalsand investors.This year,China had over a million millionairesfor the first time,and more than 5,000 residents with wealthabove USD 50 million.Only the United States has more,UHNW individuals.,Figure 3Wealth distribution relative to world(in%),6050,54.9,Country summary 2011,40,37.0,PopulationAdult population,1,340975,millionmillion,3020,GDPMean wealth,6,63920,711,USD per adultUSD per adult,10,5.8,2.3,Median wealth,7,496,USD per adult,Total wealthDollar millionaires,20.21,017,trillion USDthousand,USD 1,000,USD 1,000-USD10,000,USD 10,000-USD 100,000,USD 100,000,Top 10%of global wealth holders,28,950,thousand,Top 1%of global wealth holdersQuality of wealth data,1,602,thousandfair,China,World,Source:James Davies,Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks,Credit Suisse GlobalWealth Databook 2011,USD 0,10,0,GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2011_41,IndiaUnlocking wealth,Figure 1Wealth per adult over timeUSD 6,000USD 5,000USD 4,000USD 3,000USD 2,000USD 1,000,Wealth in India has grown strongly in the last decade or so,with wealth per adult rising from USD 2,000 in the year 2000to USD 5,500 in 2011.Given the 29%rise in adult population,USD 0,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,aggregate wealth has more than tripled.In US dollar terms,there was a significant contraction in 2008,although much ofthis was due to changes in the rupee exchange rate.When thisis taken into account,wealth growth in India has been fairlysteady.Along with most countries in the developing world,in Indiapersonal wealth is heavily skewed towards property and otherreal assets,which make up 88%of estimated householdassets.Personal debts are recorded at only USD 258 peradult.However,it has been claimed that the large and well-established household survey on which the debt for India isbased suffers from significant under-reporting of householdliabilities,so that this figure may be an underestimate.While wealth has been rising strongly in India,and the ranksof the middle class and wealthy have been swelling,noteveryone has shared in this growth and there is still a greatdeal of poverty.This is reflected in a high proportion(43%)ofadults with wealth below USD 1,000,well above the worldaverage(27%).,Wealth per adultWealth per adult at constant exchange rateFigure 2Composition of wealth per adultUSD 6,000USD 5,000USD 4,000USD 3,000USD 2,000USD 1,000-USD 1,000,At the other end of the scale,a very small proportion of the,Financial,Real,Debts,Net worth,population(just 0.4%)has net worth over USD 100,000.Ifcurrent growth continues,that number will rise:in 2011 alone,India acquired 34,000 new millionaires.However,details ofIndian billionaires and similar high profile UHNW individualssuggest that a higher-than-normal proportion may be moreproperly regarded as residents of other countries.Figure 3Wealth distribution relative to world(in%),6050,43.0,49.9,Country summary 2011PopulationAdult population,1,231735,millionmillion,403020,GDPMean wealthMedian wealthTotal wealthDollar millionaires,2,3155,5481,2914.1204,USD per adultUSD per adultUSD per adulttrillion USDthousand,USD 1,000,USD 1,000-USD10,000,6.6USD 10,000-USD 100,000,0.4USD 100,000,Top 10%of global wealth holders,4,138,thousand,Top 1%of global wealth holders,306,thousand,India,World,Quality of wealth data,fair,Source:James Davies,Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks,Credit Suisse GlobalWealth Databook 2011,USD 0,10,0,GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2011_42,FranceRobust and resilient,Figure 1Wealth per adult over timeUSD 350,000USD 300,000USD 250,000USD 200,000USD 150,000USD 100,000,After the turn of the century,wealth per adult grew verystrongly in France,tripling in value between 2000 and 2007.Itthen fell back by 15%and has not yet regained its 2007 value.,USD 50,000USD 0,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,Much of the earlier rise can be attributed to appreciation of theeuro against the dollar,a factor which affected all Eurozonecountries.However France also experienced a rapid rise inhouse prices as a result of which real property now accountsfor two thirds of household assets.Personal debts are 12%ofhousehold assets,which is a relatively low ratio in developedeconomies.In both euro and US dollar terms,the total wealth of Frenchhouseholds is very sizeable.Although it has just 1.1%of theworlds adults,France ranks fourth among nations in aggregatehousehold wealth behind China and just ahead of Germany.Europe as a whole accounts for 40%of the individuals in theglobal top 1%,but France itself contributes a quarter of theEuropean contingent.This reflects not only the high averagenet worth of French households,but also greater inequality ofwealth than is seen in most other EU countries.Very few households in France are recorded as having lessthan USD 1,000 per adult.The proportion with assets overUSD 10,000 is double the world average,and the proportion,Wealth per adultWealth per adult at constant exchange rateFigure 2Composition of wealth per adultUSD 350,000USD 300,000USD 250,000USD 200,000USD 150,000USD 100,000USD 50,000-USD 50,000-USD 100,000,with more than USD 100,000 is four times