毕业论文（设计）… 过程的地闪特征分析……………………… 冯桂力郄秀书袁铁等(211) 北京市大气细粒子质量浓度与能见.doc

第64卷 第2期目 次论文定常条件下感热和地形影响的Rossby波 段安民 吴国雄 刘屹岷 (129)非线性平衡方案在三维变分同化系统中的应用庄照荣 薛纪善 朱宗申 等(137)北半球副热带中纬度太平洋大气季节内扰动的纬向传播与东亚夏季旱涝韩荣青 李维京 董 敏 等 (149)梅雨锋结构的数值模拟 陈丽芳 高 坤(164)特大眼台风Winnie（1997）的高分辨率数值模拟张庆红 (180)山脉地形对热带风暴Fitow结构和运动影响的数值试验 段丽 陈联寿 徐祥德(186)热带与副热带地区高度异常对长江流域和华北旱涝影响的数值模拟分析黄燕燕 钱永甫 万齐林 (194)利用MODIS的多通道信息估计中纬度降雨 延昊 吴门新 刘桂青 等 (205)一次冷涡天气系统中雹暴过程的地闪特征分析冯桂力 郄秀书 袁 铁等(211)北京市大气细粒子质量浓度与能见度定量关系初探王京丽 刘旭林(221)臭氧吸收参数数据库精度检验和验证 黄富祥 徐永福 王维和 董超华（229）东北地区月平均大气环流型与哈尔滨气候关系的初步研究 贾丽伟 李维京 陈德亮等(236)黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析赵芳芳 徐宗学(246)ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICAVol.64 No.2CONTENTSARTICLESSteady wave-like solution of the Rossby wave with sensible heating and topographic effects Duan Anmin Wu Guoxiong Liu Yimin(129)Application of nonlinear balance scheme in three-dimensionalvariational data assimilation Zhuang Zhaorong Xue Jishan Zhu Zhongshen et al(137) The impact of 30-60 day oscillations over the subtropical Pacific on the East Asian summer rainfall Han Rongqing Li Weijing Dong Min et al(149)The simulation of the uneven characteristics of meiyu front Structure Chen Lifang Gao Kun(164)High resolution numerical simulation of very-large-eye typhoon Winnie (1997) Zhang Qinghong(180)The numerical simulation on the impact of topography on the structure change and motion of tropical-storm Fitow(0114) Duan Li Chen Lianshou Xu Xiangde（186）Simulation and analysis about the effects of geopotential height anomaly in tropical and subtropical region on droughts or floods in the Yangtze River valley and North ChinaHuang Yanyan Qian Yongfu Wan Qilin（194）Overland rainfall estimates in midlatitude by using MODIS multi channelsYan Hao Wu Menxin Liu Guiqing et al（205）A case study of cloud to ground lightning activities in hailstorms under cold eddy synoptic situationFeng Guili Qie Xiushu Yuan Tie et al （211）The discuss on relationship between visibility and mass concentration of PM2.5 in BeijingWang Jingli Liu Xulin（221）Checking and validating the absorption coefficients of ozone in the UV bandHuang fuxiang Xu yongfu Wang weihe et al （229）A monthly atmospheric circulation classification and its relationship with climate in Haerbin Jia Liwei Li Weijing Chen Deliang et al（236）Long-term trend and jump change for major climate processes over the upper Yellow river basin Zhao Fangfang Xu Zongxue（246）定常条件下感热和地形影响的Rossby波段安民 吴国雄 刘屹岷中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG）, 北京， 100029摘要通过在非绝热准地转线性模式中引入波动形式解，并确定适当的定解条件，用正交模方 法求得了感热波的波动解。结果表明由于感热加热集中于近地层附近，其波动解具有与山脉 波类似的波动垂直结构，波动等位相线随高度向西倾斜，波动能量向上传播。对NCEP/NCAR 资料的分析验证了理论推导结果的合理性。大尺度大气定常波随纬度和季节有明显变化。热 带地区定常波主要受潜热加热影响，副热带地区大气波动常表现为地形、潜热和感热加热的 综合效应，而中纬度地区大气定常波则主要由地形和感热加热决定。关键词：定常波，感热加热，东亚，地形。初稿时间：2005年4月6日；修改稿时间：2006年3月15日。 资助课题：国家自然科学基金项目（40405016，40475027，40135020）。 作者简介：段安民，男，1973年生，助理研究员。主要从事青藏高原气象和气候动力学研究 。E-mail: amduan.STEADY WAVELIKE SOLUTION OF THE ROSSBY WAVE WITH SENSIBLE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTSDuan Anmin Wu Guoxiong Liu Yimin(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling Atmospheric Sciences andGeophysica l Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)AbstractBased on the classical atmospheric wave theory, we derive the wave-lik e solution of the steady Rossby wave with sensible heating and topographic forci ng by the normal mode method. Results show that since the sensible heating is confined in the surface layer, the equal phaselines of its solution tilt westward with increasing height and thereby the wave energy transfers upward, and the ve rtical structure of the solution of sensible heating wave therefore presents sim ilar to that of mountain wave. Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, features of the large-scale steady atmospheric waves along three latitudes, i.e., 15°N, 30 °N , and 45°N, in East Asia are further investigated to verify the rationality of t his solution. The large-scale steady waves vary obviously with season and latit u de change. In the tropics, latent heating is the key factor of the formation of atmospheric steady waves. In mid latitudes, both sensible heating and topograph y can generate the steady waves. In the subtropics, however, large -scale steady waves depend on the combination of topography, latent heating, as well as sensibl e heating.Key words: Steady wave-like solution, Rossby wave, Sensible heating, Orographic forcing.非线性平衡方案在三维变分同化系统中的应用庄照荣1，2 薛纪善 1 朱宗申 1 李兴良 1，31 中国气象科学研究院，北京，1000812 中国科学院研究生院本部，北京，1000493 南京信息工程大学，南京，210044摘 要文章考虑气流出现明显的弯曲和辐合时，资料变分同化方案中的风压场间动力学约束问题。在强涡旋、锋面等剧烈变化的系统中，地转平衡和线性平衡方程均不能很好地描述风压场关系，非线性平衡方程考虑了流场曲率的作用，能更恰当地反映风压场的关系。把非线性平衡方案应用于三维变分同化分析系统中，可以得到和天气形势相关联的模式变量背景误差协方差，因而对热带气旋进行同化试验后得到的分析场更协调。结果表明，非线性平衡方程的应用，可以提高强涡旋系统中三维变分同化分析场的质量，因而对热带气旋强度预报有一定的改善。关键词：变分同化，非线性平衡方程，背景误差协方差。初稿时间：2005年3月9日；修改稿日期：2005年7月10日。资助课题：国家自然科学基金“四维变分同化中物理过程的研究”（40175028），国家“十 五”科技攻关计划项目（2004BA607B）。作者简介：庄照荣，1978年生，女，新疆人，博士研究生，主要从事数值预报的研究。 Bouttier F，Derber J，Fisher M. The 1997 revision of the J b termin 3D/4DVarECMWF Technical Memorandum1997 Barker Dale. A general formulation for 3DVAR control1999 Fisher M.Background Error Covariance ModellingSeminar on Recent dev elopments in data assimilation for atmosphere and ocean20034564 薛纪善，庄世宇，朱国富等GRAPES 3D-VAR系统的科学设计方案(内部交流)中国气象科学研究院数值预报研究中心2001 万齐林，薛纪善曲率修正线性平衡方程与变分同化分析中风压平衡约束2005APPLICATION OF NONLINEAR BALANCE SCHEME IN THREE DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATIONZhuang Zhaorong 1,2 Xue Jishan1 Zhu Zhongshen1 Li Xingliang1,31 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 1000812 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 1000493 Nanjing University of Information Sciences & Technology, Nanjing, 210044Abstract In the multivariate analysis, for the practical solution, the variables are divi ded as the balance parts and the unbalance parts with the constraint between the variables. The unbalance parts are designed as analysis variables. So the balan ce operator is very important to analysis and it will be represented in backgrou nd error covariance. In simple analysis, the relationship of the wind and the ge opotential height field can be described by geostrophic or linear balance equati on. The wind and geopotential height field can obey geostrophic balance properly to synoptic scale in middle and high latitude and the difference of geostrophic wind and gradient wind is no more than 10%15%. However, the impact of nonline ar term in balance equation must be considered, for the geostrophic and linear b alance can not properly descript the relationship between wind and geopotential height in tropic cyclone system in low latitude where Coriolis parameter is smaller, shear wind is bigger and the curvature is bigger. The impact of nonlinear term in balance equation must be considered in other rapidly changing structures such as frontal structures.The impact of stream divergence and convergence in the relationship of balance b etween wind and geopotential height field is considered, the every term's contri bution in balance equation is compared, nonlinear balance constraint in 3D Var is applied and checking on nonlinear balance scheme and its adjoint scheme are pr ocessedFor comparing the linear and nonlinear balance scheme in 3D-Var, single observation test and the analysis in two tropic cyclone systems are processed. The conclusion as follows: （1） The large scale atmospheric flow obeys quasi-geostrophic balance in middle high latitude, but the term and the nonlinear term should be considered i n lo w latitude and vortex system. The nonlinear term in balance equation is the bigg est and more important when the vortex system is more intensive and the difference of geopotential height gotten from the wind by nonlinear and linear balance equation is the biggest. The nonlinear balance equation can more properly describe the relationship of wind and geopotential height. （2） In 3D Var system, the background covariance has no relationship with back gr ound field in linear balance scheme. As nonlinear balance incremental equation considers information of flow depend background, to some extend, Flowdepend background covariance with nonlinear balance scheme was given.（3） Result presents that application of nonlinear balance equation improves q ua lity of assimilating hurricane system，so has some positive to pressure intensit y prediction of hurricanes. Key words: Variational data assimilation， Nonlinear balance equation， Background covariance.北半球副热带中纬度太平洋大气季节内扰动的纬向传播与东亚夏季旱涝韩荣青1 李维京2 董 敏21 南京信息工程大学，南京，2100442 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京，100081摘要摘 要用时空滤波和Morlet小波方法，分析了1958-2000年夏季东亚（20°-45°N，110°-135°E）不同纬带（由南到北分为4个区域）的降水分别与太平洋同一纬带上大气30-60 d振荡（ISO）沿纬圈传播的关系及其成因机制。发现太平洋上经向风ISO向西传播的强或弱，是东亚夏季风区降水偏多或偏少的必要条件。对逐年夏季情况的分析表明，无论当年东亚夏季风强与否，在所划分的几个东亚季风区所有涝的年份里，太平洋同一纬带上大气ISO向西传播都明显较强，而在这些区域绝大多数旱的年份里，相应的ISO向西传播明显较弱。进一步分析发现，经向风ISO的纬向传播对应着大气经向型环流系统的移动，向西传影响东亚夏季风区降水的ISO有来自低纬中东太平洋东风流中的低频气旋（如副热带东风带中ISO的演变）；也有来自中高纬度阿拉斯加湾及鄂霍次克海一带低频低压（如洋中槽）和高压(如阻塞高压和东北太平洋高压)的向南向西频散。因此东亚夏季旱涝不但与热带季风有关，而且与中东太平洋副热带东风系统中ISO的向西传播、中高纬度长波调整时低频扰动向西南经北太平洋副热带的传播密切相关。关键词：太平洋大气，ISO（30-60 d振荡），纬向传播，夏季旱涝，时空谱分析。初稿时间：2005年5月30日；修改稿时间：2005年6月22日。资助课题：国家自然科学基金项目(40375025)；国家自然科学基金项目(90211011)。作者简介：男，1970年出生，博士生，主要从事季节内振荡和东亚季风的研究。E-mail: hrqTHE IMPACT OF 30-60 DAY OSCILLATIONS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC ON THE EAST ASIAN SUMMER RAINFALLHan Rongqing 1 Li Weijing2 Dong Min 21 Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology，Nanjing 2100442 National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081AbstractThe relationships between the precipitation over Eastern Asia (20°-45°N, 110°-135°E) and the 30-60 day intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) over the boreal Pacific during the summer are studied. The daily wind and height fields of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the 24 h precipitation data of China 687 stations during 1958-2000, and the pentad precipitation of CMAP/NOAA from 1979 to 2002, are all analyzed by the Space-time filter analysis. The analysis results, from every drought and flood summer for 4 different regions of East Asia respectively during 1958-2000, showed that the precipitation amount in the East Asian summer monsoon region is well correlated to the westward propagation of 30-60 day ISO via the north central eastern Pacific, and depends little on the intensity changes of the East Asian summer monsoon. And the westward ISO is usually the low-frequency low and high pressure systems from the Bay of Alaska in northeastern Pacific and the Okhotsk in the northwestern Pacific of mid high latitudes, and the ISO evolving in subtropical easterlies. In mid high latitude the phenomena are related to the westward propagating mid ocean trough and block high backing off. There fore the westward propagating ISO from the north central-eastern Pacificto East Asia is indispensable to sufficient rainfall occurring for East Asia in summer,which is resulted from long wave adjustment process in the mid-high latitudes and ISO evolving in tropical easterlies. Key words: Pacific atmosphere,ISO (30-60 day oscillations), Zonal propagations , Summer floods and droughts, Space-time spectral analysis. 梅雨锋结构的数值模拟陈丽芳 1 高 坤 21 杭州市气象局， 杭州， 3100082 浙江大学地球科学系，杭州，310027摘要利用1999年6月下旬持续性梅雨锋降水过程的全程四维同化模拟结果，深入分析梅雨锋结构的时空不均匀变化特征及其与低涡降水强度的密切关系。结果表明，梅雨锋呈现明显的中层锋和边界层锋两段锋的特征，中层梅雨锋区对降水的影响比边界层锋更为关键，中层锋的加强、锋坡增大趋于垂直、锋区垂直环流的加强和与高空急流锋区的上下贯通，有利于梅雨锋降水的加强，强降水并不出现于中层锋区最强的时段，而是发生于大范围锋区强度达峰值之后约1624 h。中低层总变形加强与梅雨锋的加强有密切关系。组成低空急流的中低层 u，v 分量呈现不同的分布和演变特征，强南风中心位于900800 hPa，呈明显的低空急流状特征，贴近暴雨区还可能出现较小尺度的急流；而强西风中心出现于中层锋前700500 hPa，表现为高空强西风区沿锋区上界的向下延伸；低空南风急流通常与总变形同时加强。强锋段的锋前饱和高湿高能气柱、锋前中低层急流状南风区和中层西风均匀大值区等要素场呈现高度组织化的特征。梅雨锋的低层特性，如辐合、锋区强度、总变形和南风分量及降水强度等要素呈现显著的中尺度扰动特征，有明显的日变化且受长江中下游中尺度地形影响，扰动特征有随时间上传的趋势。关键词：梅雨锋结构，中层锋区，边界层锋区。初稿时间：2005年5月31日；修改稿时间：2005年11月24日。资助课题：973国家重点基础研究发展规划项目（G1998040907），国家自然科学基金资助项目（40075009），杭州市科技发展计划项目(200214 B03)。作者简介：陈丽芳，女，1978年生，浙江上虞人。硕士，现从事中尺度数值模拟和短期预报。 THE SIMULATION OF THE UNEVEN CHARACTERISTICS OF MEIYU FRONT STRUCTUREChen Lifang1 Gao Kun21 Hangzhou Meteorological Office, Hangzhou 3100082 Department of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University， Hangzhou 310027Abstract A simulation of the heavy rainfall process along meiyu front was conducted using the NCAR/PSU mesoscale model with a four-dimensional data assimilation. The model output of high temporal and spatial resolution was used to investigate the uneven characteristics of the structure of meiyu front, which was closely responsible to the heavy rainfall. The results indicate that the meiyu front consists of two segments vertically, the middle layer front and boundary layer front. The vortex and associated heavy rainfall along meiyu front were more sensitive to the middle layer front than to the boundary layer front. The intensified, steeper of the middle layer front and intensification of the vertical circulation across the frontin the middle layer are favorable to the later enhancement of precipitation along the meiyu front. The peak intense of prcipitation did not occurred at the same time while the middle layer front reaching its peak intensity, but the former has a lag of about 16-24 hours. The total deformation fields at middle and low layer were closely associated with the development of front. The distribution and evolution of u and v components were significant different. The southerly jet stream center was at 900-800 hPa, and the strong westerly flow was at middle level of 700-500 hPa ahead of the front, appearing as the downward extension of upper level westerly along the upper boundary of the front. The vertical saturated warm moist air column, southerly low layer jet and westerly middle level jet ahead of the front show highly organized features at the intense front segment. Some low layer fields along Meiyu front, such as convergence, front intensity, deformation and southerly wind, show evident mesoscale orographic features and with significant daily variation. Key words: Structure of meiyu front, Intermediate layer front, Boundary layer front.特大眼台风Winnie（1997）的高分辨率数 值模拟张庆红北京大学物理学院大气科学系，北京100871摘要台风Winnie 1997的眼直径为370 km，是有观测以来发现的最大台风眼之一。应用Penn State/NCAR高分辨率中尺度模式MM5, 成功地模拟了Winnie的路径、强度、台风眼及其双眼壁结构。由此根据模式输出结果分析了台风眼及内外眼壁附近的 流场和热力场特征。发现Winnie台风的眼壁及其周围风场都显示了明显的非对称性结构。Winnie的外眼壁对应一个极大风速环，也是暖湿环和正涡度环。内眼壁对应一个次极大风速环、暖湿环。上升运动控制整个内眼壁和海平面2 km以上的外眼壁区域，下沉运动则控制眼区和内外眼壁之间。径向入流集中在外眼壁和内外眼壁之间的边界层，流出则位于外眼壁