黄世忠：报表分析切入点--复旦PE私募班教材.ppt

2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,1,厦门国家会计学院,报表分析新思维(之一)报表分析的逻辑切入点 黄世忠 Ph.D CPA.MBA 联系电话:0592-2577778 13906016965 电子邮件:单位邮址:,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,2,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆的垮台与财务报表的预警信号中石油的经营记录与业绩评价移动电信的辉煌业绩与潜在风险本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,研讨要点与目的,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,3,三大核心问题问题1M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？问题2M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？问题3如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,4,经营规模-雇员人数,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,5,经营规模-资产总额,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,6,经营规模销售收入,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,7,经营规模-CFFOA,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,8,股票市值(Capitalization),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,9,财务实力净资产,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,10,经营绩效净利润,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,11,财务数据：GFC v.s M(2002),新经济与旧经济的反差,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,12,1.科学管理(时间和动作研究)2.成本核算和差异分析3.商业研究实验室(科学产业化)(GE)4.(ROI&ROE)资本分析和资本预算5.品牌管理(P&G)6.大规模项目管理7.事业部制(GM)8.领导力开发(GE)9.产业内联合(多公司合作组织)(Visa)10.极度分权化(自我组织)(Google)11.正式化战略分析12.员工驱动问题解决法(Toyota),DuPontAnalysis,13.臭鼬工厂(内部攻坚小组)14.客户管理 15.业务流程再造,1900-2000年175项管理创新1.是否明显脱离以前的管理实践2.是否给率先创新的公司带来 竞争优势 3.是否在当今的组织中留下烙印,20世纪现代管理的12大创新,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,13,净资产收益率,(收入+利得)(成本+费用+损失)实收资本+资本公积+盈余公积+未分配利润,净利润ROE=净资产,做大分子:增收节支,做小分母:光明正道:资本结构歪门邪道:亏损挥霍,ROE陷阱,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,14,财务数据：GFC v.s M(2003),新经济与旧经济的强烈反差,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,15,盈利质量,现金流量,资产质量,财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,16,盈利质量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率,成长性,波动性,研发营销,盈利质量分析方法,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,17,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,18,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,19,利润质量(Quality of Profit),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,20,利润质量(Quality of Profit),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,21,Microsoft Settlement(Antitrust suit filed in 1998,settled in 2001),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,22,经营业绩:2005 vs.2004,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,23,2006:艰难的转折?,Chrysler Group2006 Operating Loss$152007 total Loss$29.2May 15,2007 sold for$74 May 10,1998 bought for$360,2007:-$3872008Q3:-$213,SE as of the end of 2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-20,2008Q3-$87,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,24,毛利率(Gross Profit Margin),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,25,M公司的成本费用结构,3 E StrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,26,R&D 占销售收入比重,2006年2248家企业集团R&D占比1.1%,GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,27,成本结构与风险传导,资产质量,资产结构,现金含量,退出壁垒,经营风险,财务弹性,潜在损失,资产质量分析方法,技术风险,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,28,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2001),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,29,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2002),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,30,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2003),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,31,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2004),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,32,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2005),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,33,如何解释市净率?,13.1,5.5,5.8,3.4,0.67,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,34,品牌价值,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,35,被忽略的“软资产”,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,36,何为风险?Risk is uncertainty风险的类别经济风险(Economic Risk)环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境）市场风险（市场结构、企业竞争优势）经营风险（Operational Risk)固定成本与变动成本比例财务风险（Financial Risk)资本结构与金融市场利率,营业风险Business Risk,利润易变性Profit Volatility,传导,传导,成本结构与风险传导,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,37,+5%+14%+18%-5%-14%-18%经济风险 经营风险 营业风险 财务风险,经济状况政治社会环境,销售收入,息税前利润,税后利润,市场结构竞争优势,风险的传导与放大,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,38,XYZ公司风险评估测算表,风险传导放大效应,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,39,现金流量,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,“造血”功能,自由裁量,现金流量分析方法,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,40,广义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力狭义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出-现金股利用于评估企业的财务弹性利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求发展的能力,CFFOA vs.Free Cash Flow,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,41,现金流量趋势:G(12 vs.73),2007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:1844,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,42,2005.12.13,Cut 30,000 jobsClose 9 facilitiesBy 2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowest in 23 years,GM-不断恶化的信用等级,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,43,GM vs.Toyota,2008.11.7GM:27TM:1052,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,44,谁是老大?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,45,1.1 million of employees covered,pension and health care liability totaled$170 b,current Shortage$54 b,GM-不堪重负的医疗与退休债务,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,46,GAP:$2,300,GAP:$1,972,医疗及退休费用对制造成本的影响,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,47,汽车巨头盈利能力差异,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,48,S&P lowered Fords rating to B+on June 27,2006,现金流量趋势:F(69 vs.63),2007CF-O:171CF-CE:60,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,49,2006年F公司的生死之年?,Way ForwardTurnaround Program1.Cut North AmericaWhite-collar costs by 10%2.Eliminate up to 30,000Hourly jobs and close 14Plants by 20122006.9.15Buy out all 75,000 North American factory workers$140,000 per workerTotal$10.5 billion,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,50,现金流量趋势:C,2007CF-O:191CF-CE:164,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,51,现金流量趋势:M,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,52,Microsoft:股票期权的妙用,If you work for Microsoft,Microsoft does not pay you,you have to pay Microsoft,2003-2008166.40,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,53,市场成长性,市场占有率,高,低,高,By the Boston Consulting Group in 1968,波士顿矩阵(The Boston Matrix),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,54,Stars(现金明星)PLC处于高速成长阶段，市场占有率很高且仍呈上升趋势 销售收入和现金流量有很高的增长潜力 获利丰厚，但现金流量不很充裕,波士顿矩阵(The Boston Matrix),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,55,Cash Cows(现金奶牛)市场占有率很高PLC处于成熟阶段产品维持成本较低现金性收入很高经营性现金流量十分充裕,波士顿矩阵(The Boston Matrix),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,56,Dogs(现金瘦狗)PLC处于衰退阶段 市场占有率很低或不断下降经营性现金流量入不敷出产品需要大量维持支出,Is your product starting to embarrass your company?,波士顿矩阵(The Boston Matrix),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,57,Problem Child(问题小孩)PLC处于高速成长阶段，但市场占有率很低产品维持需要大量资金支出经营性现金流量可能出现负数未来潜力充满不确定性,Problem children worth spending good money on?,波士顿矩阵(The Boston Matrix),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,58,股票市场表现,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,59,Microsoft的崛起,1975年4月Bill Gates and Paul Allen创立了Microsoft,Microsoft staff photo from December 7,1978.From left to right:Top:Steve Wood,Bob Wallace,Jim Lane.Middle:Bob ORear,Bob Greenberg,Marc McDonald,Gordon Letwin.Bottom:Bill Gates,Andrea Lewis,Marla Wood,Paul Allen,IPO in March 13,1986,raising$61 mTo date,total capital raised is more than$62.8 b,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,60,Bill Gates的”裸捐”,Warren Buffett donated$37 billion,mainly to the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation,+$50,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,61,谁是美国高科技的最大功臣?,中美经济改革的不同价值取向,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,62,三大逻辑切入点,盈利质量,资产质量,现金流量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率高低,成长性,退出壁垒,潜在损失,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,波动性,资产结构,现金含量,”造血“功能,自由裁量,研发营销,报表分析三大逻辑切入点,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,63,盈利质量与资产质量相互背离案例,NPL Ratio2005:4.62%;2006:4.04%,NPL Ratio2001:27.51%;2002:22.49%,拨备覆盖率2001:16.80%2002:22.09%,拨备覆盖率2005:80.55%;2006:96.00%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,64,盈利质量与资产质量相互背离案例,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,65,第一次不良贷款剥离,Carved-outOrCovered out?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,66,NPL transferred to AMC,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,67,414亿元可疑类贷款227亿元核销冲销贷款,2787亿元可疑类贷款,2460亿元损失类贷款4590亿元可疑类贷款,交行2004.6,中行和建行2004.6,工行2005.5;2005.6,信达,信达,四大AMC,不良贷款二次剥离,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,68,“纸面富贵”的D公司,2004:S 26.3;NI(A)-641;2005:S 15.6;NI(A)-7.112006:S 21.4,2004:NI overstated by 3719,30 fined by CSRS,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,69,乐极生悲的四川长虹,净利润2001 0.89 1.76 2.41 2004-36.81,2004 Q1-Q3CFFOA-3.12,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,70,权责发生制会计管理当局动机,盈利质量,现金流量分析,资产负债质量,核心盈利可持续性、成长性、现金流量,调整与调节应计制向现金流动制的转换,确认和计量资产、负债、股东权益,决 策财务契约设计估值与投资信贷分析财务风险评估审计风险评估,差错,歪曲,报表失真问题,报表分析纬度,报表分析用途,财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,71,三大报表的功能区分资产负债表利润表现金流量表从“德隆系”的垮台看证券监管的误区基于新疆屯河的案例分析,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,72,现金流量表的“妙用”,经营活动产生的现金流量,投资活动产生的现金流量,筹资活动产生的现金流量,造血功能,抽血功能,输血功能,现金流量表经常被忽略的报表,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,73,IPO的条件3年连续盈利上市前一年末的净资产比率不低于30%SEO的门槛配股：ROE不低于6%增发：上一年的ROE不低于10%ST或退市的标准ST：连续两年亏损，或NAPS低于1元退市：连续三年亏损复市的条件恢复盈利,以利润表和资产负债表的监管导向,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,74,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,75,中国电信的运营资本,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,76,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,77,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,78,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,79,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,80,德隆的死因既不是被郎咸平“搞死”的，也不是被监管部门“整死”的而是自己“搞死”的战略管理的失误理财策略的失误短借长用“造血”功能不足，靠“输血”维持，且不懂得“节制”初步启示证券监管出现方向性“偏差”CSRC和两个SE都不关心现金流量表，CPA也不例外理性回归牢记理财学中的“万有引力定律”Cash is king!Cash Flow Statement is a king without cloth!,简短结论,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,81,燃料工业部石油管理总局(1950.4),石油工业部(1955.7),燃料化学工业部(1970.6),石油化学工业部(1975),石油工业部(1978),中国石油天然气总公司(1988.9),中国石油天然气集团公司(1998.7),中国海洋石油总公司(1982.2),中国石油化工总公司(1983.7),中国石油化工行业的沿革,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,82,2000.4上市200亿2005.9增发196亿,1999.11.5重组,中石油(0857.HK)股价周线图,发行40亿A股,发行价16.70元，募集688亿元,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,83,中石油上市以来股价表现,发行价格1.26 vs.16.7,巴菲特撤退?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,84,中石油业绩因何突出?-业绩角度,2008Q3S:8537NI:987,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,85,中石油业绩因何突出?税收角度,2008Q31883,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,86,中石油业绩因何突出?资产结构角度,2008Q3TA:10594;FA:6935,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,87,中石油业绩因何突出?财务状况角度,2008Q3TA:11227;SE:7853DR:30.05%,DR:28.07%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,88,中石油业绩因何突出?现金流量角度,2008Q3OA:1499;IA:-1196;FA:-269,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,89,中石油业绩因何突出?自由现金流量角度,2008Q3:197,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,90,中国石油业绩报告(可控与不可控因素分析),油价影响?,EVA影响?,改制影响?,中石油业绩因何突出?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,91,业绩飙升的动因,2007接替率原油:1.104天然气:3.238,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,92,原油价格走势图(2000-2008),2008.10.31收盘$67.81,2008.7.11最高$147.27,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,93,“暴利税”(300亿),政府的重大决定(2006.3.26)国务院关于开征石油企业收益特别金的决定、财政部石油收益特别金征收管理办法,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,94,EVA vs.NI 中石油EVA=NOPAT ICxWACC 或EVA=净利润-净资产资金成本率,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,95,资本成本导致经营业绩锐减,EVA vs.NI 中石化(2002),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,96,ValueCreation,ValueDestruction,EVA vs.NI 四川长虹(2002),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,97,CNPC vs.PC 的比较及涵义,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,98,SINOPEC少数股东损益165,有何涵义？,中石化集团vs.中石化股份的比较及涵义,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,99,PetroChina vs.ExxonMobile,2006.12.31,2008.10.31,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,100,PetroChina vs.ExxonMobile,3.41,2.07,1.78,1.24,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,101,PetroChina vs.ExxonMobile,Debt Ratio-2007PC:28%EM:50%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,102,Du Pont 分析体系,净资产收益率的分解 净利润 净资产收益率=净资产 净利润 销售收入 资产总额净资产收益率=销售收入 资产总额 净资产=销售利润率 资产周转率 财务杠杆系数,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,103,中国电信市场概览,市场总量2007年全国通信业务收入7120.6亿元其中电信业务收入7280.18亿元,增长10.9%邮政业务收入771.5亿元,增长21.2%电话用户总量2007.12.31,全国电话用户91,273.4万户其中移动电话用户54,728.4万户,约占60%固定电话用户36,545万户,约占40%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,104,移动电话一支独秀,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,105,发展趋势:冰火两重天,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,106,电信市场构成,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,107,移动通信案例分析市场占有率,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,108,王建宙:我举双手赞成!,常小兵:我想不通!,王晓初:我无话可说!,电信三巨头闪电换岗-中组部和国资委的灰色幽默,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,109,电信重组:走向实质竞争?,新中国电信=旧中国电信+CDMA网+中国卫通基础电信业务,新中国联通=旧中国联通GSM网+中国网通,新中国移动=旧中国移动+中国铁通,王晓初,常小兵,王建宙,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,110,电信三巨头的竞争实力,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,111,中国移动(0941.HK)股价月线图,1997.7 上市323亿元,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,112,中国联通(0762.HK)股价月线图,2000.6上市453亿,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,113,市场开拓？资本运作?,营业收入趋势图(Comparability),2008H11965,2008H1359,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,114,收入成长性,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,115,合并范围对中国移动营业收入的影响,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,116,中国移动营业收入曲线,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,117,经营业绩,中国电信5年财务概要,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,118,中国电信过去5年业绩成长,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,119,中国电信过去五年收入构成,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,120,中国电信经营成本构成,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,121,中国移动经营成本构成,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,122,EBIDTA 比率,2007,1,940,54.30%,324,33.2%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,123,中国电信EBIDTA比率,46.0%,54.0%,52.3%,51.3%,49.0%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,124,EBIDTA曲线,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,125,净利润变动趋势,2007:EVA 608,2007:EVA-8.8,2008H1中国移动:549中国联通:45,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,126,净利润变动趋势,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,127,中国电信过去五年净利润变动趋势,Impairment2002:1472003:1482004:13 2007:28,2008H1:127,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,128,合并范围对中国移动净利润的影响,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,129,中国移动净利润变动曲线,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,130,会计准则差异对净利润的影响,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,131,Daimler-Benz(1993,DM),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,132,销售利润率,2006,660,22.3%,37,3.9%,2007,871,24.4%,56,5.6%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,133,折旧占比,2006,646,21.8%,224,23.8%,2007,674,18.9%,227,22.6%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,134,销售费用及其占比,12.2%,14.7%,22.5%,24.7%,23.7%,20.5%,19.6%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,135,财务状况,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,136,资产结构（Impact of 3G),2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,137,84%85%85%82%84%,电信设施及设备占82%,中国电信的资产结构,2006:84%;2007:83%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,138,净资产收益率吸引竞争者?,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,139,现金储备,2006:31%2007:33%,2006:8.0%2007:0.5%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,140,经营性现金流量,中国电信2006:7482007:749,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,141,经营性现金流量占比,2006:51%2007:48%,2006:38%2007:32%,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,142,现金流量充裕率,2023/2/25,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,143,自由现金流量,2023/2/25,Xiamen National