毕马威：解析中国能源业.ppt

Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,IND USTR IA L MA RK ET S,2,4,8,12,16,20,1Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer viewContents IntroductionUpstream oil and gas:Focus on performance and efficienciesOil and gas infrastructure:Redrawing the mapThe coal sector:Bedrock of the economyPower generation:The balancing actRenewable energy:Winds of change,242627,ConclusionsAbout KPMGContact us,2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,1,2,Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,Introduction,Peter Fung,Partner in ChargeIndustrial MarketsKPMG China,The growing sophistication of Chinas industrial base and the rising power ofdomestic consumers are critical factors shaping Chinas energy needs.AsChinas export markets weaken,domestic consumption is becoming a morecritical driver of growth.,No other economy in history has developed under the kind of internationalscrutiny that China faces today.In particular,this scrutiny has focused on thecountrys environmental record and its global ambitions to secure energy andnatural resources.As many as 350 million additional people are expected toinhabit Chinas cities in the coming decades1 and this will require extensiveinvestments in the energy sector.,China,like the United States,Britain and Germany,has relied on coal to generatethe power it needs to drive its economic growth.But as this report shows,Chinais diversifying its energy sources by adopting renewable energies and applyingclean-burning technologies to coal-fired power plants.,The interplay between different energy sources in China,not least the continuedreliance on coal for power generation,need to be fully understood before onecan consider how the sector may develop in the future.,“Preparing for Chinas urban billion,”McKinsey Global Institute,March 2008,2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,3Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,Chinas authorities are acutely aware of the countrys environmental challengesand its dependence on energy imports.They recognise that one way to managethese issues will be through greater efficiency and innovation in all areas of theenergy sector.They have also recognised that there are opportunities to attractinvestment through the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development Mechanism.Thisincreasingly complex backdrop of policy and investment considerations is makingit an ever greater challenge for companies and planners to build a modern andintegrated energy infrastructure.,The following KPMG report shares our observations on key trends in each areaof the energy sector,from upstream oil and gas through to power generation.We hope you will find it particularly relevant in light of the recent developmentsin the world economy.As always,we would welcome the opportunity to discussour findings with you.,2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,4,Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,Upstream oil and gas:,Focus on performanceand efficiencies,More than any other factor,Chinas thirst for oil and petroleum productshas shaped the countrys recent energy policy,particularly as its reliance onimports has increased since the mid 1990s.For this reason,it is logical to startany assessment of Chinas energy sector by looking at upstream oil and gasdevelopments.,China has never been an especially resource-rich nation,relative to the size of itspopulation.However,if oil consumption continues rising at recent levels,China islikely to import as much as three-quarters of its oil needs by 2025.2,In this context,sustaining output from domestic reserves has been an increasingchallenge,which has led to a greater focus on performance by the domesticoil giants PetroChina(the listed entity of China National Petroleum Corp)andSinopec(the listed entity of China Petroleum and Chemical Corp).Both havealready set targets to enhance the sustainability and efficiency of production,while taking steps to restructure and consolidate upstream divisions moreefficiently.3,The countrys achievements in maintaining domestic production levels areimpressive considering that several of the largest individual oil fields areapproaching depletion.Until the 1990s,China could comfortably rely on outputfrom a relatively limited number of established fields in the northeast as wellas further south in Shandong province.The largest of these,the Daqing field inHeilongjiang,has been exploited continuously for almost five decades.,2 The Energy Information Administration forecasts consumption to double to 15.7 million barrels per day in 2030 compared to 7.58 million per,day in 2007.The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also predicts that the country will consume 563 million tons of crude oil in 2020,whichis 62.5 percent more over 2006;see“Chinas oil consumption to hit 563M tons in 2020,”China Daily,April 2008,3 China Mining Association:“CNPC,Sinopec integrate upstream sector to sharpen competitive edge,report,”10 March 2008,2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,Thousandbarrelsperday,0,4,5Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer viewFigure 1:Growing dependence on crude oil,12,000 10,000,Import dependence69.4 percent,2015Import dependence,58.3 percent,20108,000,6,000,Import dependence,46.0 percent,20074,000 2,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010F 2015F,Net imports,Crude oil production,Source:Historical production up to 2007 and import and export data up to 2006 from the National Bureau of Statistics;2007 import and export data from Xinhua;forecasted production taken as the difference between consumption and importdata from Wood Mackenzie cited by Dow Jones News Wire,available athttp:/www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca/chinainstitute/nav03.cfm?nav03=48264 EIA data shows CAGR of 2.8 percent for the same period 2001-07 2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,Billioncubicmeters,5,6,7,6Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer viewTo support development of new oil and gas-producing regions,the governmenthas encouraged major international players to pursue joint production with thedomestic oil companies.5 In addition to PetroChina and Sinopec,CNOOC Ltd(thelisted entity of the China National Offshore Oil Corp)has been particularly activein sharing concessions with foreign companies that offer advanced explorationand production technologies.More so than with oil,foreign companies have been invited to participate ingas exploration and production,particularly in offshore locations.In terms ofreserves and production,PetroChina is the largest natural gas supplier by virtueof its assets in the central and western regions of China,while CNOOC has beenparticularly active in offshore exploration and production.According to BP,Chinas natural gas reserves amount to a relatively modest 1.88trillion cubic metres,but due to increasing demand,the reserve-to-productionratio has fallen from 58 years in 1998 to 27 years in 2007.Over the past decade,natural gas consumption has increased more than threefold,from 20.3 billioncubic metres in 1998 to 67.3 billion cubic metres in 2007.6 However,thisrepresents just 3 percent of the countrys total energy consumption,far belowthe world average of 23 percent.7Figure 2:PetroChina remains the largest producer of natural gas among oilmajors80,70,7.3,60,8.4,8.0,50,8.1,7.3,40,6.4,6.3,30,4.0,5.95.0,5.35.1,4.25.3,5.8,20,3.9,10,18.3,22.5,22.5,24.7,28.6,36.1,43.9,54.0,0,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,PetroChina,Sinopec,CNOOC&others,Source:CNPC,Sinopec and CNOOC annual reports from 2000 to 2007“International energy companies activities in China over 30 years,“available in Chinese at http:/Statistical Review of World Energy,2008Energy Information Administration:World Consumption of Primary Energy by Energy Type and Selected Country Groups,available at www.eia.doe.gov 2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,8,9,7Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,The extent to which Chinas dwindling oil output leads to higher importdependence will be determined to a large degree by the future role of oil intransportation.According to the China Statistical Yearbook 2007,vehiclesaccounted for about 30 percent of total oil consumption in 2006 and this figurecould rise to 59 percent by 2020,if vehicle use continues to rise at current rates.8The big question will be the speed and extent to which hybrid vehicles may beadopted more widely as this could dramatically alter that equation over the nextfew years.,Impact of the export slowdown,The global economic downturn has hit manufacturing enterprises across China with many sectors seeing dramatically lowerorders from their normal export markets.The knock-on effect for oil and gas companies is likely to be felt in contrastingways on the upstream and the downstream sides of the business.,In many parts of China,demand continues to outstrip the domestic availability of oil and gas,so in the first instance,anyslowdown in demand is likely to curtail the need for imports,as well as slowing domestic production.Pricing is likely to fall,reflecting the decline in global oil prices from their highs in mid-2008.While this will gradually erode the operating marginsfor many upstream units,vertically-integrated companies such as PetroChina and Sinopec stand to benefit from strongermargins on their refining operations,particularly as prices for refined products in China are set significantly above worldaverages.9,Natural gas is consumed by households,power generation companies and a range of industrial sectors including chemicals,fertiliser and glass producers.The slowdown in manufacturing is sure to have an impact on the demand for these productsand consequently the demand for gas.The availability of natural gas for power generation has been somewhat constrained inrecent years,so there remains room for continued growth in many regions,albeit at slower rates than previously anticipated.,“Where will the power of China automobile come from in the era of post-oil,”Xinhua News Agency,30 May 2008Deutsche Bank:China Oil and Gas report,19 November 2008,2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,8,Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,Oil and gas infrastructure:,Redrawing the map,Over the past decade,the shift in reliance towards imports has required manynew investments in pipeline infrastructure,import terminals,storage facilities andrefineries.The geographical focus of this investment has inevitably moved awayfrom Chinas traditional oil-producing regions to coastal regions.Examples of newinvestments include a crude oil pipeline connecting the port city of Ningbo toShanghai and Nanjing,and a pipeline linked to a major storage facility at Yizhengin Jiangsu province.10 The governments new economic stimulus measures,announced in November 2008,allow for further investment in a number ofenergy projects(see box,page 11).,The market dominance of Sinopec and PetroChina has historically made,downstream oil and gas a challenging area for foreign companies.Compoundingthese challenges,high crude prices over much of the past decade have squeezedmargins.,While margins have been tight,they have not proved a deterrent to investmentby the domestic oil giants.Refining capacity has grown steadily from 4.6 millionbarrels per day in 1997 to 7.6 million barrels per day in 2007,while consumptiongrew from 4.2 million barrels per day to 7.9 million barrels per day during thesame period.11,The countrys accession to the WTO has reduced tariffs on imported petroleumproducts and eased the rules on investments.In June 2007,a number ofinternational oil companies,including Shell,BP and SK Energy,revealed interestin acquiring private refineries.12,10 HKTDC:Post WTO entry petroleum and chemical industry,1 January 200711 BP Statistical Review of World Energy,2008,12 Sohu Business,8 March 2008,available in Chinese,2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,(000km),(milliontones),9Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,Figure 3:Chinas total pipeline length120,Figure 4:Chinas total refinery capacity500,100,110,400,440,806040,44,48,60,300200,270,318,329,342,200,1000,2005,2006,2007,2010(E),2005,2006,2007,2008,2011(E),Source:Deutsche Bank:China Oil&GasWoori Investment&Securities:China Research China Oil RefiningMarket Avenue:2008 Report on Chinas Pipelines3E Information Development&Consultants:China Refining and Ethylene Capacity Survey(2007-2008)National Bureau of Statistics of China:China Statistical Yearbooks 2004-2007Several foreign companies are making significant investments in large-scaleintegrated refining and cracking projects.In 2007,Chinas largest joint venturedeal worth USD 5 billion was signed between Kuwait Petroleum and Sinopec.Other investments include a USD 4.3 billion Huizhou petrochemicals complexbeing built by Shell and CNOOC in Guangdong province and a major ethyleneplant being developed jointly by Sinopec,ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco in Fujianprovince.1313“Asia petchem expansions to 2015 increase demand for naphtha,”Oil and Gas Journal,15 December 2008 2009 KPMG,a Hong Kong partnership and a member rm of the KPMG network of independent member rms afliated with KPMG International,a Swiss cooperative.All rights reserved.,14,15,16,17,10,Chinas Energy Sector:A clearer view,Sinopec has teamed up with ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco to develop anintegrated refining and petrochemicals project in Fujian province that couldultimately involve USD 4 billion of investment.14 In June 2008,PetroChina hassigned agreements with Qatar Petroleum International and Shell to developa new refinery and petrochemicals complex.15 Shell said that all parties areleaning towards to locate the complex in Eastern China.Shell also squashedthe speculation that the project might be shelved amid current global economiccrisis.16,Infrastructure developments are equally dramatic in the gas sector.Until recently,all of Chinas natural gas was produced domestically and no infrastructure existedfor gas to be imported,either by pipeline or in the form of liquefied natural gas(LNG).,Major investment in domestic gas transportation infrastructure is crucial,asChinas domestic gas reserves are also located far from the main areas o