麦肯锡-公司增长的思考(1).ppt

,Thinking about GrowthTechnieken van Strategische AnalyseProf.Wouter De Ploey,I.Why growII.The evolution of growth portfoliosIII.What great growers do,Profitable growth drives principal business objectives,Organisational vitality,Competitive sustainability,Shareholder value,Job creation,Value-creating revenue growth drives principal business objectives.Growth is not an end in itself.,Growth is pure oxygen.It creates a vital,enthusiastic corporation where people see genuine opportunity.They take bigger chances.They work harder and smarter.In that way growth is more than our single most important financial driver,its an essential part of our corporate culture.Its why so many talented leaders want to work for PepsiCo rather than lots of other fine corporations.Wayne Calloway,former PepsiCo CEO,Growth drives organisational vitality,I.Why growII.The evolution of growth portfoliosIII.What great growers do,Three key concepts,Balancing growth across 3 Horizons,Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives,A company as a portfolio of staircases,Concurrent management across 3 Horizons,Time frame(years),Profit,Horizon 3,Create viable options,Horizon 2,Build emerging businesses,Horizon 1,Extend and defend core businesses,3 Horizons of growth,Horizon 1Extend and defend core businesses,Horizon 2Build emerging businesses,Horizon 3Create viable options,Types of businesses,Core businesses underpinning current profitability,New businesses and extensions of existing businesses fuelling revenue growth,Options to build future businesses,Managementimperative,Unlockincremental growth,then manage for value as the business declines,Exercise options,assemble required capabilities,and drive business-building initiatives,Source options(ideas,relationships,assets)for future growth and test viability of business concepts,Primary focus,Bottom-line performance and profitability,Top-line growth and capital efficiency,Future potential and robustness across multiple scenarios,Balanced growth at Coca-Cola Amatil,Time frame,Australasia1965 Australia(69)1988 New Zealand(55)Western Europe1982 Austria(42)1995 Switzerland(35),Profit,Year of entry(consumption of Coca-Cola Amatil products in litres per capita),Horizon 3Create viable options,Horizon 2Build emerging businesses,Eastern Europe1991 Hungary(30)1991 Czech Republic(14)1992 Slovakia(11)1994 Slovenia(25)1995 Poland(8)1995 Romania(15)1995 Croatia(14)Southeast Asia1991 Indonesia(2)1997 Philippines(15),Former Soviet republics1994 Belarus(2)1994 Ukraine(1)China/IndiaOption with Robert Kuok?Option with San MiguelOther(e.g.,further franchises,smart cards,new products),Horizon 1Extend and defend core businesses,Financial characteristics Horizons 2 and 3:Coca-Cola Amatil example(Dec 96),Forecast cash contribution 19961996 A$Millions,192,71,-12,Forecast cash contribution 20151996 A$Millions,334,727,228,Capex,Low,High,Medium,Real growth in pre-capex cash flow19962015,55%,227%,911%,Estimated market value,30%,50%,20%,Time frame,Profit,Horizon 3Former Soviet republicsChina/AsiaOther(e.g.,further franchises,smart cards,new products),Horizon 2Eastern EuropeIndonesia,Horizon 1AustralasiaWestern Europe,Challenge of simultaneously managing 3 Horizons,Profit,ROIC,Revenue,NPV,Option value,Business maintainers,Business builders,Champions and visionaries,Fully assembled capability platform,Capabilities being acquired or developed,Capability requirements may be unclear,Metrics,People,Capabilities,Horizon 1Extend and defend core businesses,Horizon 2Build emerging businesses,Horizon 3Create viable options,Profit,Time frame,Unsustainable patterns,Weak,Strong,Strong,but under attack,Running out of steam,Ideas but not building businesses,Failing to seed for the future,Losing the right to grow,Lots of exciting options but nobody building a business,Building next generation of businesses,but not securing long-term future,Overfocused on core business,restricting future prospects,Excessive focus on growth at expense of core business,Core business under serious threat with no emerging new businesses,Under siege,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,Three key concepts,Balancing growth across 3 Horizons,Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives,A company as a portfolio of staircases,Growth staircase dynamics,next step,Capability platform,Business-specific competences,growth-enabling competences,privileged assets,special relationships,New,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Existing,capabilities,Existing,capabilities,capabilities,New,New,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Aspiration,Coca-Cola Amatils European staircase,Capabilities development,Strong brands,I have a vision that by the year 2000,CCAs output in Europe will go from 400 million unit cases at the moment to 1 billionMuhtar Kent,CCA European Managing Director,1964-72,1982,1991-93,1987-91,1994-96,Acquires 4 Australian Coca-Cola franchises,AcquiresAustrianfranchisesGrazVienna,Acquires further Austrian franchises,HungaryCzech RepublicSlovakia,Acquires franchises in,BelarusUkraineSloveniaPoland(66%)Romania(50%)CroatiaSwitzerland,Acquires franchises in,MdlingSt PoltenLandeggSteyrGmundenKlangenfurtDombirnSalzburg,Seed growth options,Test business model,Replicate proven business model,Manage for profitability,Source and secure options for future growth,Test commercial viability of business concept,Realise growth potential through business-building initiatives,Maximise growth potential by unlocking incremental growth,then manage value in decline,Generic growth staircase,HungaryCzech RepublicSlovakia,Acquires franchises in,Seed growth options,Test business model,Replicate proven business model,Manage for profitability,Coca-Cola Amatils European staircase,1964-72,1982,1991-93,1987-91,1994-96,Acquires 4 Australian Coca-Cola franchises,Acquires Austrian franchises,Acquires further Austrian franchises,BelarusUkraineSloveniaPolandRomaniaCroatiaSwitzerland,Acquires franchises in,MdlingSt PoltenLandeggSteyrGmundenKlangenfurtDombirnSalzburg,GrazVienna,Sources of value creation:Coca-Cola Amatil,Superior front-line execution,Positional advantage,Insight/foresight,Seed growth options,Replicate proven business model,Manage for profitability,Test business model,Although the current level of soft drink consumption is lowthe local soft drink market is expected to grow dramatically in the 1990sDean Wills,Chairman1991 annual report,Example:In 1991,CCA started a new staircase in Indonesia,where per capita soft drink consumption was 2%of Australias consumption,The advantages of operating in two territories adjoining one another,versus two in isolation,are tangibleDean Wills,Chairman1994 annual report,Example:In Europe,CCAs growth formula is based on securing contiguous franchises and driving out cost via rationalisation,The Coca-Cola Company measures the performance of its bottlers against 3 simple criteria(expanding sales of Coca-Cola products,boosting per capita consumption,investing in Coca-Cola brands).Coca-Cola Amatil is a star performer on all three counts.The Australian company is the current darling of the Coke systemBRW,13 September,1991,Example:CCAs front-line marketing skills are among the best in the world,Three key concepts,Balancing growth across 3 Horizons,Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives,A company as a portfolio of staircases,Mapping staircases to Horizons,Time frame,Profit,Horizon 1,Horizon 2,Horizon 3,Create viable options,Seed growth options,Replicate proven business model,Manage for profitability,Test business model,Build emerging businesses,Extend and defend core businesses,3 Horizons as a portfolio of staircases,Horizon 1Extend and defend core businesses,Horizon 2Build emerging businesses,Horizon 3Create viable options,Time frame,Mature staircases,Developing staircases,Embryonic staircases,Profit,Coca-Cola Amatils portfolio of staircases,4 more franchises in,Austria,199091,Horizon 1,Horizon 2,Horizon 3,Coca-Cola Amatil Horizons,Coca-Cola Amatil staircases,Acquisition and,operation of,4 Australian,franchises,Australian,franchises,Fiji,NZ,franchise,Remainder,of NZ and,Australian,franchises,PNG,196485,198688,198990,1991,2 joint,ventures in,Indonesia,Control,of JVs,Jakarta,and North,Sumatra,franchises,Consoli-,dation,into 1,national,franchise,1991,1992,1993,1995,Vienna and Graz,4,Austrian,franchises,Switzerland,1982,198789,199596,Czech and,Hungary,Slovakia,Slovenia,Poland,Croatia,Romania,1991,1992,1994,199596,Ukraine,Belarus,Infra-,structure,Former Soviet,republics,Eastern,Europe,Western,Europe,Indonesia,Australasia,Western Europe Australasia,Eastern EuropeIndonesia,Former Soviet republics,1994,1995-96,Disneys portfolio evolution,Animation,1920,1930,1940,1950,1960,1970,1980,1990,Disney,channel,ABC TV,network,Disneyland,Walt Disney,World,EPCOT,Disney/,MGM,Studios,Animal,Kingdom,Disney,America,Hotel,development,Disney,Institute,vacations,Resorts,Cruise lines,planned,communities,Tokyo,Disney-,land,Euro,Disney,KCALTV,Hockey,Baseball,Live theatre,Filmed,entertainment,Theme parks,Vacations,resorts,&property,development,Live,entertainment,Broadcasting,Merchandising,music,and,publishing,I.Why growII.The evolution of growth portfoliosIII.What great growers do,Characteristics of successful growth companies,Commit to growth,Cultivate entre-preneurship,Buildgrowthengines,Commit to growth,Theright to grow,Stretch targetsand values,Commit to growth,Cultivate entre-preneurship,Buildgrowthengines,Earn the right to grow,Achieve and sustain operational excellenceDivest unprofitable or distracting businessesBuild the faith of investors and financiers,Commit to growth,Cultivate entre-preneurship,Buildgrowthengines,Theright to grow,Stretch targetsand values,Divest unprofitable or distracting businesses,90%of the Sara Lee Corporation of 1974 is gone.(22 significant divestments in past 15 years)John Bryan,CEO,.We divest any part of the business we are not happy with.we are very disciplined.We are convinced that the benefits of worldwide leadership are so great that we cant afford to waste time,money,and management talent where that leadership is not achievable.Alfred Zeien,CEO,We have divested in the eighties$10 billion worth of marginal businesses and made$19 billion of acquisitions.Jack Welch,CEO,We do not hang onto businesses where we cannot be Number 1 or 2.Richard Gibb,President,Signal Division,Winning confidence of shareholders at Disney,Strategy,Target audience,Example,Major shareholder,Sid Bass,Eisner and Wells flew to meet Bass after 2 days on job to gain his support,Broader investment community,Active participation in Disney magic,Individual shareholders,Concerned investment community,One-on-one discussions,Roadshow presentations,Targeted press conferences,Eisner,Wells,&Katzenberg held brokers meetings to gain support for Silver Screen film financing,Annual general meetings are a big family event at Anaheim(1984 attended by 8 000),When Disney faced a series of disruptions(Wellss death,Katzenbergs departure,Eisners heart surgery),it held press conferences,Raise the bar through stretch targets and values,Set stretch targetsKiller financial targetsInspiring aspiration that evolves over timeBalance with strong values,Commit to growth,Cultivate entre-preneurship,Buildgrowthengines,Theright to grow,Stretch targetsand values,Inspiring aspiration,You really need to articulate a vision and will it to happen.Our people get intoxicated with a vision.That vision is charged by something that is dream-driven and gives the organisation direction for the future.,One key objectiveto be the worlds premier packaging company.,Be the worlds premier entertainment company.,To better humanity as the worlds leading health care company.,I want to build a business that can grow forever.,Build growth engines,Commit to growth,Cultivate entre-preneurship,Buildgrowthengines,Opportunitypipeline,Platform of capabilities,Expansive mindset,Embrace an expansive mindset,Recognise and utilise 7 degrees of strategic freedomBreak constraining mindsetsBroaden traditional market definitionsIndustry boundariesGeographic boundariesBusiness system boundaries,Commit to growth,Cultivate entre-preneurship,Expansive mindset,Opportunitypipeline,Buildgrowthengines,Fan organisational passion,Platform of capabilities,Moves into new competitive arenas,Existing competitive arena,vs,Expansion into new geographies,Existing geography,vs,Improve-ment of industry structure,Existing industry structure,vs,Innovation in value delivery system,Existing value delivery system,vs,Innovation in products and services,Existing products and services,vs,New customers,Existing customers,vs,Seven degrees of strategic freedom,Currentbusiness,Gillettes seven degrees of strategic freedom,Drove consolidation of stationery industry with acquisitions of Papermate,Waterman,and ParkerAcquired Wilkinson Sword outside US and EC in 1991,Use of dual sales channels with Oral-B and Braun both selling electric dental care systemSale of Waterman pens through Parkers corporate gift channels,Successfully migrated consumers to newer,higher margin shaving productsLeveraged Gillette brand in adjacent products,Toiletries,stationery,small electrical appliances,oral care,and now batteries,70%of sales and profits generated outside USDominant and profitable positions in most emerging markets,Built female customer base with Sensor technology,Moves into new competitive arenas,Existing competitive arena,vs,Expansion into new geographies,Existing geography,vs,Improve-ment of industry structure,Existing industry structure,vs,Innovation in value delivery system,Existing value delivery system,vs,Innovation in products and services,Existing products and services,vs,New customers,Existing customers,vs,Currentbusiness,Massive brand and volume building through advertising and promotion,Broaden traditional market definitions,5%of the personal use/personal care consumer products market,20%of mens grooming products market,60%of the bladeand razor market,Blades and razors,Blades and razors Shaving creamDeodorant/antiperspirantAftershave,Mens grooming productsWomens shaving and grooming productsShampoo/haircareOral care,CCAs expansive mindset with focused product offering,From,Non-beverage sales decreased from$1.4 billion to 0,Poultrysold 1989,Beverages,Packagingsold 1990,Printingsold 1990,Tobaccosold 1989,Diversified Australian conglomerate in 1985,Snack foodssold 1992,To,Beverage sales increased from$0.3 billion to$3.0 billion,Specialist global beverage leader in 1996,16 countries,368 million consumers,Indonesia,PNG,Europe,Fiji,Australia,Fill the opportunity pipeline,Resource processes to fill the opportunity pipelineDesign competitively defensible business concepts,Commit to growth,Cultivate entre-preneurship,Platform of capabilities,Expansive mindset,Opportunitypipeline,Buildgrowthengines,Capital Ones Golden Gate process,Growth opportunities(GO)group,Idea generation,Initial evaluation,Led by VP