Deloitte2005给AIPC做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案.ppt

,U.S.Energy&The Role ofRocky Mountain Natural Gas:Clean Domestic Energy For a Growing America(2005),There is no economy,be it new,old or even futuristic,that would exist without reliable,accessible and affordable energy,Basic Energy Facts,There is no economy,be it new,old or even futuristic,that would exist without reliable,accessible and affordable energy,Basic Energy Facts,Over the past 25 years U.S.demand for energy has increased by 35%while our supply has only increased by 17%,There is no economy,be it new,old or even futuristic,that would exist without reliable,accessible and affordable energy,Basic Energy Facts,We import 14%of the gas and 53%of the oil we use,Over the past 25 years U.S.demand for energy has increased by 35%while our supply has only increased by 17%,Polls demonstrate that the American public:,Source:COGA Flowline,Vol.17,#3,Basic Energy Facts,1.Takes energy for granted,Polls demonstrate that the American public:,Source:COGA Flowline,Vol.17,#3,Basic Energy Facts,1.Takes energy for granted,2.Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nations,Polls demonstrate that the American public:,Source:COGA Flowline,Vol.17,#3,Basic Energy Facts,1.Takes energy for granted,2.Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nations,3.Seems to believe the mistaken notion that energy production necessarily entails unacceptable environmental impact,In Colorado about 2,000 drilling permits are issued annually compared to about 50,000 housing permits,Source:COGA Flowline,Vol.17,#3,Basic Energy Facts,OIL,Total U.S.Energy Consumption byPrimary Energy Source 2001,Source:EIA,Petroleum39.4%,Natural Gas22.8%,Coal23.1%,Other-3.9%,Hydro-2.5%,Nuclear-8.4%,World Petroleum Demand,25.9%,76.0 MMbod,Source:EIA,In the last 5 years the world consumed 27 billion barrels/year,but the industry discovered only 3 billion barrels/yearTherefore:used 135 billion barrels of oil while discovering 15 billion barrels of oil,Source:USGS,Basic Energy Facts,World Top Oil Producing Countries in 2001,U.S.9.0 MMbo/dRussia8.8 MMbo/dSaudi Arabia8.0 MMbo/dNorth Sea(UK,Norway,Denmark)6.3 MMbo/dIran3.7 MMbo/dMexico3.6 MMbo/dChina3.3 MMbo/dVenezuela2.9 MMbo/dCanada2.8 MMbo/dIraq2.4 MMbo/d,Source:EIA,U.S.Petroleum Products Production vs.U.S.Petroleum Demand,Production-25%,Demand+24%,Source:EIA,U.S.Crude Oil Production&Crude Oil Imports,Source:EIA,0,5,10,15,20,25,1973,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,2001,Quadrillion Btu,Oil Production,Oil Imports,Top Suppliers of Crude Oil to U.S.in 2001,Saudi Arabia1,611 Mbo/dMexico1,394 Mbo/dCanada1,356 Mbo/dVenezuela1,291 Mbo/dNigeria842 Mbo/dIraq795 Mbo/d,Source:EIA,NATURAL GAS,Total U.S.Energy Consumption byPrimary Energy Source 2001,Source:EIA,Petroleum39.4%,NaturalGas22.8%,Coal23.1%,Other-3.9%,Hydro-2.5%,Nuclear-8.4%,U.S.Natural Gas Consumption in 200122.0 Tcf,Source:Groppe,Long&Littell,Residential22%,Commercial15%,Industrial26%,Electric Utilities26%,Chemicals and Materials3%,Other 9%,U.S.Natural Gas Consumption vs.Dry Production,Source:EIA,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,1973,1977,1981,1985,1989,1993,1997,2001,Bcfd,Consumption,Production,U.S.Shortfall in Production vs.Consumption,Source:EIA,Projected Natural Gas Demand,Source:EIA,Tcf per year,U.S.manufacturing is based on affordable and reliable supplies of natural gas.At these prices,it is unlikely the U.S.will attract new manufacturing capital.Todays gas prices are forcing manufacturers to consider production overseas.,Source:Industrial Energy Consumers of America,ELECTRICITY,U.S.highway fuel market totals 11-12 MMbopd making it the single largest petroleum market in the worldHowever the energy content creating Kilowatts in the U.S.is almost twice as large as the highway fuel market!,Electricity Basic Energy Facts,Basic Energy Facts,In 2001 nearly 42%of the energy consumed in the U.S.was used to generate electricity.,Source:Groppe,Long&Littell,U.S.Electricity Supply by Source in 2001,Source:EIA,Natural Gas,16.5%,Coal,51.5%,Other Gaseous Fuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro-5.8%,Nuclear,20.3%,From end of WWII to start of 2000 residential and commercial electrical use increased 51 out of 53 yearsYet no significant new power plants were built between 1990 and 2000,Basic Energy Facts,In 2000,PCs and electronics consumed 13%of our nations energy supply.By 2020,these uses are expected to consume 25%of the nations energy supply.40%of the countrys electricity is used to power air conditioners.,U.S.Electricity Net Generation,Source:Groppe,Long&Littell,0,1,2,3,4,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2001,Billion Kilowatt Hours,1.6%CAGR,U.S.Electricity Supply by Source in 2001,Source:EIA,Natural Gas,16.5%,Nuclear,20.3%,Coal,51.5%,Other Gaseous Fuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro 5.8%,U.S.Hydroelectric Power Production,Source:EIA,Over the past 25 years U.S.demand for energy has increased by 35%while our supply has only increased by 17%,Basic Energy Facts,Basic Energy Facts,Oil,gas and hydro production are flat to down so what has increased energy supply?,Over the past 25 years U.S.demand for energy has increased by 35%while our supply has only increased by 17%,U.S.Electricity Supply by Source in 2001,Source:EIA,Natural Gas,16.5%,Coal,51.5%,Other Gaseous Fuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro-5.8%,U.S.Nuclear Electric Power Production,25,0,5,10,15,20,1973,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,Quadrillion Btu,Three MileIsland,2001,Source:EIA,U.S.Electricity Supply by Source in 2001,Source:EIA,Natural Gas,16.5%,Other Gaseous Fuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro-5.8%,U.S.Electric Power Production from Coal,Source:EIA,Coal,0,5,10,15,20,25,1973,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,Quadrillion Btu,2001,Cant store electricity like you can oil and gas so excess capacity is essential!The nation is now adding gas fired power plants at an unprecedented rate,Electricity Basic Energy Facts,Easier to permitMore cost efficientTake years less to constructDistributed locationClean(50%of coal and oil power plant emissions),Why Gas Fired Power Plants?,Source:EPA&AGA,Air Pollution Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides(NOx),Source:EPA&AGA,Air Pollution Emissions of Sulpher Dioxide(SOx),Source:EPA&AGA,Air Pollution Emissions of Particulate Matter,Source:EPA&AGA,Air Pollution Emissions of Carbon Dioxide(CO2),Rockies represent the single largest untappedonshore natural gas basin in the U.S.,Source:National Petroleum Council,Estimated Proven and Potential Gas Reserves in the U.S.(1,135 Tcf),Why the Rockies?,Source:AAPG Memoir 67,p.286.,Basin Center Gas(BCG),Rocky Mountain BCG,Huge and largely untapped“unconventional”natural gas resourceAbnormally pressured gas accumulations below normally pressured water systemCompartmentalized non-continuous gas columns,Usually low perm reservoirs but high perm areas do exist(sweetspots)Complex poorly understood system which represents tremendous opportunity,Rocky Mountain BCG,These accumulations have defied exploitation by conventional techniquesA deep basin high potential“frontier”exists in mature province,Rocky Mountain BCG,Unconventional resource1.4 TCFG produced annually 7%of U.S.gas productionOver 90%of CBM production came from Rockies in 2000,Coal Bed Methane,Coal Bed Methane,39.7 TCFG most likely recoverable from Rocky Mountain regionCBM potential of entire Rockies being reevaluated after success in Powder River,Uinta,Raton&Piceance Basins,Three of the four largest(?)U.S.onshore gas discoveries in last 25 years are in the RockiesProducingSan Juan Basin CBM(1986)2,000 MMcfdPowder River Basin CBM(1991)930 MMcfdBarnett Shale(1981)700 MMcfdJonah BCG(1995)650 MMcfd,U.S.Daily Gas Production 1972-1999,Source:2000 Potential Gas Committee Report,-24%,-36%,518%,0,10,20,30,40,Gulf Coast,Mid-Continent,Rockies,Pacific,N.Central,Bcfd,-24%,-36%,518%,-21%,700%,U.S.Gas Supply:Why the Rockies?,Discount to NYMEX,F=03(Actual Jan-Feb,Futures Mar-Dec),04&05 Futures 2-7-03,$/MMbtu,1.15,0.60,0.31,0.25,0.52,0.78,1.25,1.77,1.08,0.84,Volatile pricesExcessive regulationsInefficient permitting proceduresLack of land and lease accessibility,What is holding us back from growing our gas production?,Barriers to Meeting the Nations Demand for Natural Gas,Source:National Petroleum Council,U.S.Lower-48 Natural Gas Reserves Subject to Access Restrictions,Lack of infrastructureLack of impactful new technology(“silver bullets”)Lack of prospects?,What is holding us back fromgrowing our gas production?,Most of our gas supply and drilling activity in last 10 years has come from extremely successful exploitation efforts The problem is that this is a finite game,19727,551,198117,500,19867,156,20002,076,Source:API,History of U.S.Exploration Activity,Price uncertainty“Tired”mature basinsLack of creative new ideas where have all the prospectors gone?,Why are exploration efforts so anemic?,Quarterly financial“street”expectationsPerception that domestic projects cant compete with global opportunities,Why are exploration efforts so anemic?,Lack of consistent corporate commitment or fortitude,Why are exploration efforts so anemic?,We must explorefor the good of our countryand the survival of our industry,WANTED:A New Supply of“Silver Bullets”,IP/EUR Logs!Pipe set“dry holes”are tremendous waste of capitalCost Effective(Cheap)Onshore 3D Seismic Acquisition!Need“offshore-like”coverage in all of our basins,Needed:New“Silver Bullets”,BOPs That Can Drill With Air to Greater Than 5,000#Efficient air drilling in horizontallaterals“Canada-Like”Regulations Such That ALL Data Becomes Public Allowing Much More Efficient Data FarmingMore Subsurface Hole with Less Surface Impact,Needed:New“Silver Bullets”,Independents drill 85%of domestic oil and natural gas wells and produce approximately 75%of domestic natural gas This is not BIG OIL!,Source:Independent Petroleum Association of America,Independents Are the Nations“Energy Farmers”,Price“takers,”not price“makers.”Produce something that everyone needs.Heavily dependent on the weather.,Where are the majors?Majors need to step up and play a significant role in our nations gas supply growth efforts,The ability to produce clean burning domestic natural gas in adequate supply is critical to our nations economy andself-sufficiency,Source:COCA Flowline,Vol.17,#3,Conclusions:,The general public is clueless!Get informed and tell others of the crucial role the natural gas industry plays in Americas future,Basic Energy Fact,Project ManagerJim Lightner,Tom BrownFebruary 13,2005,