China's private express delivery market opportunity analysis 13159.doc

China's private express delivery market opportunity analysis      Abstract: Because of China's express delivery market, large and lucrative, has become the express delivery companies eager to see them playing field. Article on China's express delivery market in the development and changes to a certain degree of qualitative and quantitative forecasts to help enterprises of all types to understand the market conditions and changes in social needs, timely adjustment of business activities, to enhance competitiveness.      Key words: Express; market opportunities; qualitative analysis; quantitative analysis      CLC number: F618 Abstract: A           Abstract: Due to its' huge potential demand and highly profitable prospects, China's express delivery market has become the arena which each express enterprise struggles to chase. So certain qualitative and quantitative forecast about the future changes of China's express delivery market will help enterprises understand various types of market conditions and social changes in demand and adjust business activities to enhance their competitiveness timely.      Key words: express service; market opportunities; qualitative forecast; quantitative forecast           A qualitative analysis of           Forecast of China's express delivery market from both demand and supply analysis. The demand for evaluation of the Express need to establish an appropriate indicator system, indicators must be able to direct or indirect response to the courier needs. In this paper, an integrated economic indicators, for example the demand for express delivery to evaluation, and gross domestic product indicators and express the amount of correlation was analyzed.      Comprehensive economic indicators including GDP, the proportion of secondary industry, tertiary industry proportion. Gross domestic product is a country (region) of all resident within the territory of units produced within a certain period of time and the provision of end-use value of products and services. As the demand for express delivery industry, growth in gross domestic product is growing, its growth rate was significantly higher than the gross domestic product growth rate. Industrial structure in the primary industry (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries) express needs of relatively small factors in the study selected only the second and tertiary industries share of GDP. Gross domestic product indicators associated with the express demand analysis, gross domestic product and domestic demand for the data courier shown in Table 1.      First come the gross domestic product and courier traffic shown in Figure 1. And then using SPSS statistical analysis software, the demand for express delivery, associated with the gross domestic product, test and, based on observation of gross domestic product, with the express business volume scatter, express demand and gross domestic product, showing a linear increase in integrated trend. Application of Pearson correlation relationship between research data, draw the following conclusions: the gross domestic product and courier traffic correlation coefficient of 0.952, the GDP volume of business and delivery are highly correlated. Therefore, we can express the gross domestic product and the related traffic prediction. From 2001 to 2004, overall gross domestic product for every 1% growth in business volume on the growth of express delivery of 3%. From 2006 to 2010, GDP growth rate will remain above 8%, whereby a preliminary estimate, express delivery business volume growth rate should be 25%.      From the supply side, market development affect the delivery main factors: transportation network development, especially aviation and highway capital investment, technical constraints and the supply of such personnel. Tong Cheng express delivery services for the run, the main factors affecting their development of urban road traffic indicators, which includes the end of the year there is a paved road area and per capita area of paved roads. Tong Cheng express industry to the time limits for very high traffic flow is an important guarantee of delivery time.           2 Quantitative Analysis           Regression analysis is the use of a sample of the regression equation parameter estimation, testing, and to predict or control variable's value. Will explore the correlation structure between variables, especially for describing the structure of causality, the two variables X and Y correlation between the models generally used to describe the following: Y = fX u.      Select the following five models to express the amount of curve fitting (y for the delivery volume, x is time, the base period in 1991 is defined as 1.):      Logarithmic model: y = b blnx; power model: y = bx; exponential model: y = be; quadratic model: y = b bx bx; three model: y      = b bx bx bx.      2.1 Forecast of the Post Express      First, application of regression analysis to predict the amount of postal delivery, curve fitting shown in Figure 2.      SPSS statistical analysis software, according to the results of regression analysis, five models of the F test was significant water on average is less than 0.0001, but the three model R2 = 0.996, F = 995.117, were greater than the value of other models, so the three models more reasonable. Three models fit equation: Y =- 1 832.290 1 999.440t      -176.109t 10.225t.      2.2 Forecast of non-postal courier      First, application of regression analysis to predict the amount of non-postal courier, curve fitting shown in Figure 3.      SPSS statistical analysis software, according to the results of regression analysis, five models of the F test was significant water on average is less than 0.0001, but the exponential model R2 = 1.000, F = 50 043.625, is greater than the value of other models, so exponential model more reasonable. Index model fitting equation: Y = 207.99e.      Three of the Post model and non-postal index model results to carry out curve fitting, fitting shown in Figure 4. And use the model of China's express delivery market in the next 10 years, the demand for express delivery to predict the results shown in Table 2.      Forecast data from our point of view, in the next few years, the postal delivery business volume and non-postal courier business volume will gradually increase, but the non-postal courier business volume growth rate than the postal delivery business volume in the next 10 years, non-postal express delivery business, the annual average growth rate of 46.81% is far higher than the 15.01% postal courier services. As shown in Table 3.           3 Conclusion           (1) The express industry market continues to develop and mature, market competition becomes increasingly fierce. Express delivery industry, the continuous improvement of service quality and value-added services increased each day, will boost the rapid growth of corporate e-commerce trade, which brought about rapid growth of express distribution Youji broader market space.      (2) growth and GDP growth are closely linked. China's gross domestic product for each additional one percentage point increase of two percentage points on the logistics, express delivery, an increase of three percentage points. Such a high rate of development, coupled with localized advantages, in order to win the development space for private enterprises. The industry believes that China's express delivery market in 20 years will not be saturated. Although outside the Express predators embrace capital, brand and business model advantages to attack the Chinese market, but its localization process that requires time, which is the development of the domestic courier industry consolidation opportunities. Express the past two years, small and medium business will be the trend of consolidation.      (3) regression analysis for China's express delivery industry, market demand analysis can be seen mainly in the private non-postal express delivery company's growth potential is considerable. Same time, because the current market share of private enterprises accounted for 75% of delivery over the next 10 years of non-postal express delivery services above the annual average growth rate of the postal delivery business, the average growth rate of 3 times.      (4) The rapid development of logistics industry in China today, China's private courier company that can fully utilize its advantages to overcome its own limitations, will be in the future play an important role in the logistics field.           References:      1 Weng Xin-gang. In the reform and opening up the development of China's logistics industry J. China Logistics, 2008,22 (6) :16-19.      2 Ling-Yun Zhou, Mouthon. Based on SWOT analysis of the private courier business development strategy research J. Logistics Technology, 2008,27 (4) :38-45.      3 Xie, such as crane, Zhi-Feng Li. The competitiveness of China's private express delivery companies to explore and Empirical Analysis Indicator System J. Guangzhou University Journal: Social Sciences Edition, 2008,7 (6) :41-44.      4 Liu Yi. Private courier business model analysis J. Modern commerce, 2008 (5): 15.      5 Li Qian, Lulli level, Yanjing Dong. China's express delivery industry, industrial environmental analysis J. Business Economics, 2008 (8) :110-111.