美国度假村运营情况概览 (NXPowerLite).ppt

,Resort ConferenceMarch 21st,2006,Jan D.Freitag,VPSMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH,Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections,Total United StatesEstimated Revenue and ProfitabilityYears 1999 2005P,Life is good!,U.S.Lodging Industry-Key StatisticsLatest 12 Months-January 2006,%ChangeHotels 47,735 0.6%Rooms4.4mm 0.3%Occupancy63.3%2.9%A.D.R.$91.28 5.5%RevPar$57.76 8.6%Room Revenue$94B 9.0%,Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Cyclicality Clearly Visible Recent S/D Imbalance Spells Opportunity,0.3%,3.3%,Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Divergence,Divergence?,If History Repeats Itself,Strong ADR Gains are Here to Stay,Total United StatesOccupancy Percent,Average Daily Rate,RevPARTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,$86.36,$91.28,64.9%,63.3%,Robust OCC and ADR Gains post 9/11,STR Chain ScalesSelected chains from each segment,Luxury Four Seasons,Ritz Carlton,Fairmont,W HotelsUpper Upscale Doubletree,Hilton,Hyatt,SheratonUpscale Hilton Garden Inn,Courtyard,Crowne Plaza,RadissonMid with F&B Holiday Inn,Ramada,Best Western,Quality InnMid no F&B Comfort Inn,HI Express,Country Inns&SuitesEconomy Motel 6,Days Inn,ESA,Travelodge,Ramada Limited,Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Months Ended January 2006,Business Traveler Drives Demand for Big Boxes,Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Months Ended January 2006,Above Inflation Rate Growth Across all Chain Scales,Chain ScalesRevPAR/Room Revenue Percent Change Twelve Months Ended January 2006,Life is Good!,Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections,Resort Locations Key Statistics12 Month Moving Average January 2006,%ChangeHotels3,890-2.5%Room Nights214.6 m-1.8%Demand 143.3 m-0.8%Occupancy66.7%1.1%ADR$127.06 6.0%RevPAR$85.11 7.1%Room Rev$18.3 b 5.2%,Resort LocationsRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Supply Increase Used to be Somewhat Constant Until 9/11,-0.8%,-1.8%,Resort LocationsRoom Demand Percent Change PeaksTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Demand Peaks Every 48 months Or Does it?,48 months,48 months,42 months,Resort LocationsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Despite Decreasing OCC Growth,ADR Growth Should be Here to Stay,Resort LocationsOccupancy Percent,Average Daily RateTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,July 1997:69.1%,OCC&ADR Rebound after 9/11 but OCC still has a way to go,July 2001:$115,Jan 2006:$127,Jan 2006:66.7%,ResortsDay of Week Analysis Occupancy 2003-2005,Nice Increases Midweek-but Have Weekends Peaked?,ResortsDay of Week Analysis ADR 2003-2005,$8 Rate Growth Across the Board a Good Sign for 2006,ResortsGroup vs.Transient ADR 2003-2005,Group Rate Growth Lags Transient Rate Growth,ResortsDay of Week ADR-Group 2003-2005,2005 vs 2004:Moderate Daily Rate Growth(3%)For Groups,ResortsDay of Week ADR Transient2003-2005,2005 vs 2004:Healthy Rate Increases Across All Days(10%),Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections,Destination Resort Key Statistics12 Month Moving Average January 2006,%ChangeHotels3171.0%Room Nights57.7m-0.5%Demand 38.8 m1.2%Occupancy67.3%1.7%ADR$182.986.3%RevPAR$123.148.1%Room Rev$7.1 b7.6%,0.7%of US Hotel Supply generates 7.6%of US Rooms Revenue,Destination ResortsRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Segment Always Attracts New Supply Except in the Most Recent Past,1.2%,-0.5%,Destination ResortsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Above 6%Rate Growth Lasts Not Forever But for Now,Destination ResortsOccupancy Percent,Average Daily RateTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to January 2006,Still Room For Improvement Post 9/11 in Both Measures,May 1997:70.6%,July 2001:$171,Jan 2006:$182,Jan 2006:67.3%,Destination ResortsMonthly Occupancy2000 vs.2005,In the Off Season,Year 2000 Still Is the Benchmark To Beat,76.8%,75.8%,Destination ResortsMonthly ADR2000 vs.2005,December Rate Differential Still$6,-$6,+$14,Destination ResortsDay of Week Analysis Occupancy 2003-2005,Strong“Long Weekends”(Thu Sat)But Have Fr/Sat Reached Their Peak?,Destination ResortsDay of Week Analysis ADR 2003-2005,Second Part of the Cycle:Rate Increase 04/03:2%-Rate Increase 05/04:6%,Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections,Definitions,Condo Hotel Rooms:Rooms placed in Rental PoolResidences:Rooms not placed in Rental Pool,Total U.S.Summary of Condotel Pipeline March 2006,Source:STR Condotel Pipeline,part of the STR/TWR/Dodge Construction Pipeline,229 Projects with a total of 98,142 reported*rooms Rooms are broken out as follows(%of total):Hotel Rooms:34,166 35%Condo Hotel Rooms:48,678 50%Total Affecting Nightly Room Supply:82,844 85%Non-rental Residences:13,938 14%Timeshare Rooms:1,360 1%*Some projects have not yet reported room counts,Total U.S.Top 10 Condotel MSAsMarch 2006,Annual Occupancy 2003-2005Total US vs.Condo Hotels vs.Destination Resorts,%,Annual ADR 2003-2005Total US vs.Condo Hotels vs.Destination Resorts,$,Condotel:Data Reporting Topics,Reporting AvailabilityStatic vs.Fluctuating Rooms AvailableReporting Rooms SoldIssue:Owner Occupied,Non-Revenue Generating RoomsReporting Rooms RevenueThe Rule:No Restatements after 120 daysComp Set IssuesChoosing a Condotel in your Comp Set will likely do more harm than good,Agenda Total US Overview Resort Locations Destination Resorts Condo Hotels Total US Projections,Lodging Industry Issues,Supply Growth Remains Benign Construction Costs,Condo Conversions Higher Operating Costs Insurance,Labor,Amenities,Energy Solid Demand Growth Degrees of Good,Some Not So Good Changing Demand Experience Travel,Baby Boomers Occupancy Growth Slows Varies Widely by Market Aggressive Pricing Could Double CPI,Control of Internet Pricing Transportation Problems Troubled Airlines,Gasoline,Infrastructure Higher Industry Profits More Difficult for each Property Global Issues Terrorism,Bird Flu,Currency Fluctuations Outlook Great till 08?,U.S.Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators March 2006,2005A2006F2007FReal GDP+3.6%+3.4%+3.0%CPI(=Inflation)+3.4%+2.9%+2.4%Corporate Profits+17.1%+9.5%+4.6%Disp Personal Income+1.5%+3.5%+3.2%Unemployment Rate 5.1%4.8%4.7%,Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change2002 2006P,Total United StatesOccupancy Percent Change2002 2006P,Total United StatesOccupancy Percent2002 2006P,Total United StatesADR Percent Change2002 2006P,Total United StatesReal Room Rates(Base Year=2000)Year End 2000-2005,Total United StatesNominal Room Rates2000 2006P,If Yr.2000 Rate Had Grown at 3%over 6 years:,Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change2002 2006P,Thank You for Your Attention!,