海油工程(600583)：周期性、重资产业务估值溢价较高；首次评级为卖出0108.ppt

增长,3.92,2013 年 1 月 8 日投资决策卖出海油工程(600583.SS),潜在回报：(33%)周期性、重资产业务，估值溢价较高；首次评级为卖出(摘要),证券研究报告,建议理由,投资摘要,海油工程（COOEC）是中国唯一一家大型的海洋工程设计、采办、建造和安装服务提供商。我们对该股的首次评级为卖出，因我们认为与全球同业相比，该股,低,高,较高的估值溢价不具吸引力（2013 预期 EV/EBITDA 为 17 倍，全球同业为 6-7倍），尤其考虑到我们对以下方面持保守看法：运营效率目前较低、核心产能和技术有待改进、新管理层尚需制定行之有效的发展战略、利润率还处于低位以及,回报*估值倍数波动性百分位,20th,40th,60th,80th,100th,其周期性盈利风险较高。,海油工程(600583.SS)亚太能源行业平均水平,*回报-资本回报率,投资摘要指标的全面描述请参见本报告的信息披露部分。,推动因素我们认为通过进入陆上、下游业务及海外市场来改善利润率颇具挑战性。我们的2012-14 年每股盈利预测较市场预测低 10%-31%。我们预计，一旦公司业务多元化战略未能推动盈利强劲增长的情形日益显现，未来 6-12 个月海油工程盈利的市,主要数据股价(Rmb)12个月目标价格(Rmb)市值(Rmb mn/US$mn)外资持股比例(%),当前5.8122,597.6/3,627.1-,场预测将大幅下调。我们估算 2012-14 年每股盈利年均复合增长率为-40%，低于,12/11,12/12E,12/13E,12/14E,2002-2011 年+17%的增幅。估值我们的 12 个月目标价格为人民币 3.92 元，这是基于 8.0 倍的 2013 年预期EV/EBITDA 得出的，而该股 EV/EBITDA 的长期均值为 12 倍（不包括 CROCI 均值为 25%的 2007-2010 年）。我们的目标价格存在 33%的下行空间。我们预计,每股盈利(Rmb)每股盈利增长(%)每股摊薄盈利(Rmb)每股基本盈利(Rmb)市盈率(X)市净率(X)EV/EBITDA(X)股息收益率(%)净资产回报率(%)CROCI(%),0.05114.60.050.05124.92.423.50.62.010.8,0.14210.60.140.1440.22.312.50.65.812.8,0.169.80.160.1636.62.212.30.66.112.5,0.2346.00.230.2325.12.011.00.68.412.9,2012-14 年 CROCI 为 13%，略高于 2010-11 年的 9%-11%，但仍低于同业，也,远低于自身的峰值水平。,股价走势图,7.0,2,600,主要风险上行风险：中海油国内开发资本支出大幅上升、中海油拥有更多的海外海上项目作业权、原材料和钢铁价格大幅下跌、利率大幅下调。*全文翻译将随后提供,6.56.05.55.04.54.0,2,5002,4002,3002,2002,1002,000,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,所属投资名单,海油工程(左轴),上证A股指数(右轴),亚太卖出名单,股价表现(%)绝对相对于上证A股指数,3个月5.1(4.1),6个月(5.1)(7.6),12个月3.2(2.2),行业评级：中性闫建涛(研究助理)+86(10)6627-3054 北京高华证券有限责任公司金俊(分析师)执业证书编号:S1420511100003+86(10)6627-3467 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司,资来源：公司数据、高盛研究预测、FactSet（股价为1/07/2013收盘价）北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。投资研究,2,2013 年 1 月 8 日海油工程：财务数据概要,海油工程(600583.SS),损益表(Rmb mn)主营业务收入主营业务成本销售、一般及管理费用研发费用其它营业收入/（支出）EBITDA折旧和摊销EBIT利息收入财务费用,12/117,384.5(6,318.0)(232.1)-324.61,158.9(742.9)416.07.1(178.5),12/12E11,921.8(10,074.0)(357.7)-445.41,935.6(1,018.8)916.811.5(192.6),12/13E13,114.0(11,192.8)(393.4)-505.82,033.6(1,004.2)1,029.521.7(255.1),12/14E14,032.0(11,822.0)(376.1)-468.72,302.7(1,001.9)1,300.824.2(285.1),资产负债表(Rmb mn)现金及等价物应收账款存货其它流动资产流动资产固定资产净额无形资产净额长期投资其它长期资产资产合计,12/111,230.21,973.2708.41,191.65,103.57,881.01,201.6322.84,277.018,785.9,12/12E2,165.51,469.81,407.61,191.66,234.69,155.51,158.2322.84,277.021,148.2,12/13E2,421.51,616.81,533.31,191.66,763.210,444.71,114.9322.84,277.022,922.6,12/14E2,211.21,730.01,327.91,191.66,460.711,736.21,071.5322.84,277.023,868.2,联营公司,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,其它税前利润所得税少数股东损益,35.2279.9(93.8)(5.2),35.2770.9(192.7)(16.1),50.2846.2(211.6)(17.6),50.21,090.1(163.5)(25.7),应付账款短期贷款其它流动负债流动负债,2,373.6205.03,802.96,381.5,2,484.0205.03,612.86,301.7,2,759.9205.03,612.86,577.6,2,915.0205.03,612.86,732.8,长期贷款,1,546.3,3,546.3,4,546.3,4,546.3,优先股股息前净利润优先股息非经常性项目前净利润,181.00.0181.0,562.10.0562.1,617.10.0617.1,900.90.0900.9,其它长期负债长期负债负债合计,1,354.92,901.19,282.6,1,354.94,901.111,202.9,1,354.95,901.112,478.8,1,354.95,901.112,633.9,税后非经常性损益,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,净利润,181.0,562.1,617.1,900.9,优先股,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,普通股权益,9,442.3,9,868.3,10,349.2,11,114.0,每股基本盈利（非经常性项目前）(Rmb),0.05,0.14,0.16,0.23,少数股东权益,61.0,77.0,94.6,120.4,每股基本盈利（非经常性项目后）(Rmb),0.05,0.14,0.16,0.23,每股摊薄盈利（非经常性项目后）(Rmb),0.05,0.14,0.16,0.23,负债及股东权益合计,18,785.9,21,148.2,22,922.6,23,868.2,每股股息(Rmb),0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,股息支付率(%),75.2,24.2,22.1,15.1,每股净资产(Rmb),2.43,2.54,2.66,2.86,自由现金流收益率(%),4.7,(4.1),(2.7),(0.3),增长率和利润率(%)主营业务收入增长率EBITDA增长率EBIT增长率净利润增长率每股盈利增长毛利率EBITDA利润率EBIT利润率,12/113.511.639.3114.6114.614.415.75.6,12/12E61.467.0120.4210.6210.615.516.27.7,12/13E10.05.112.39.89.814.715.57.9,12/14E7.013.226.446.046.015.816.49.3,比率CROCI(%)净资产回报率(%)总资产回报率(%)平均运用资本回报率(%)存货周转天数应收账款周转天数应付账款周转天数净负债/股东权益(%),12/1110.82.01.02.646.1103.4124.15.5,12/12E12.85.82.86.638.352.788.015.9,12/13E12.56.12.86.748.043.085.522.3,12/14E12.98.43.98.744.243.587.622.6,EBIT利息保障倍数(X),2.4,5.1,4.4,5.0,现金流量表(Rmb mn),12/11,12/12E,12/13E,12/14E,估值,12/11,12/12E,12/13E,12/14E,优先股股息前净利润,181.0,562.1,617.1,900.9,折旧及摊销少数股东权益运营资本增减其它经营活动产生的现金流,742.95.21,496.3310.12,735.5,1,018.816.1(85.4)(190.1)1,321.5,1,004.217.63.20.01,642.1,1,001.925.7247.30.02,175.8,基本市盈率(X)市净率(X)EV/EBITDA(X)企业价值/总投资现金(X)股息收益率(%),124.92.423.52.50.6,40.22.312.51.80.6,36.62.212.31.60.6,25.12.011.01.40.6,资本开支收购剥离其它投资活动产生的现金流支付股息的现金（普通股和优先股）借款增减普通股发行（回购）其它筹资活动产生的现金流,(1,491.4)0.010.95.4(1,475.1)(136.1)(586.8)0.0(66.1)(789.1),(2,250.0)0.00.00.0(2,250.0)(136.1)2,000.00.00.01,863.9,(2,250.0)0.00.00.0(2,250.0)(136.1)1,000.00.00.0863.9,(2,250.0)0.00.00.0(2,250.0)(136.1)0.00.00.0(136.1),总现金流,471.3,935.3,256.0,(210.3),注：最后一个实际年度数据可能包括已公布和预测数据。,资料来源：公司数据、高盛研究预测对此报告有贡献的人员闫建涛金俊高华证券投资研究,4,5,6,9,11,13,15,15,20,3,2013 年 1 月 8 日Table of contentsCyclical,low-margin asset heavy business yet premium valuationHeavy customer concentration,restricting its pricing power and increasing its exposure to cyclical earningsLack of expertise and capacity,reducing operational efficiency and leading to lower marginsAbsence of future strategy to play its offshore strengths by management-in-transition,reducing marginsCNOOCs moderate production growth,leading to muted earnings growth for COOECHeavy fixed assets and rising costs,leading to low marginsWhat would make us more constructive?Our 12-month target price is Rmb3.92,on 8.0X 2013E EV/EBITDAKey risks to our viewCompany profile:a major offshore E&C provider,primarily owned by CNOOC GroupDisclosure Appendix,海油工程(600583.SS)1922,The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of January 6,2013,unless mentioned otherwise.Exhibit 1:COOEC trades at a premium to its peers based on EV/EBITDA,but has lower CROCIAsia Energy Research Global oil services companies key valuation data 2011-2013ENet debt/,Price,Mkt cap,P/E(X),EV/DACF,EV/EBITDA,CROCI(%),Equity,Yield(%),Ticker,Jan 6,Rating,(US$mn),2011 2012E 2013E,2011 2012E 2013E,2011 2012E 2013E,2011 2012E 2013E,12E(%),2013E,US integrated oilfield services,Baker Hughes(US$)Halliburton(US$)Schlumberger(US$)Weatherford(US$),BHIHALSLBWFT,43.5336.6572.0111.59,NeutralBuy*BuyNeutral,19,13133,92995,6198,871,10.410.919.726.6,13.612.117.317.0,12.69.514.810.8,7.18.012.18.5,8.67.811.413.2,6.16.29.66.3,5.15.810.46.5,6.16.09.56.1,5.04.88.15.1,12.716.114.78.8,9.614.414.15.4,11.515.314.79.9,23.817.325.281.7,1.41.01.70.0,Median,20.7,17.1,13.7,8.3,10.0,6.2,6.1,7.8,6.6,13.7,11.9,13.1,24.5,0.5,US offshore drillers,Diamond Offshore(US$)ENSCO International(US$)Noble Corporation(US$)Rowan Companies(US$)Transocean(US$)Hercules Offshore(US$)Atwood Oceanics(US$),DOESVNERDCRIGHEROATW,71.5162.7337.3434.2551.826.5548.40,SellNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral,9,94214,3829,4254,25018,4091,0073,159,10.819.427.428.733.3-9.811.5,15.111.817.617.915.3-10.712.0,14.69.69.815.510.217.49.4,7.618.013.3NM17.319.810.1,9.99.89.811.010.114.410.9,10.67.87.610.48.25.08.7,6.815.211.813.49.613.69.0,8.69.39.19.87.412.110.0,8.57.16.610.26.64.27.6,16.88.57.20.64.43.816.3,11.810.28.96.57.34.813.1,10.711.210.46.88.512.413.4,28.938.154.825.649.470.238.8,4.92.42.40.00.00.00.0,Median,19.4,15.1,10.2,15.3,10.1,8.2,11.8,9.3,7.1,7.2,8.9,10.7,38.8,0.0,European Engineering and Construction,Tecnicas Reunidas(EUR)Amec Plc(GBP)Fugro NV(EUR)Kentz Corporation(GBP)Petrofac(GBP)Subsea 7 S.A.(NOK)Aker Solutions(NOK)John Wood Group Plc(GBP)Saipem(EUR)Technip(EUR),TRE.MCAMEC.LFUGRc.ASKENZ.LPFC.LSUBC.OLAKSO.OLWG.LSPMI.MITECF.PA,36.191,035.0045.60381.301,660.00137.60117.90741.5030.0987.43,NeutralNeutralBuy*NeutralBuyNeutralBuy*NeutralBuyBuy*,2,5485,2234,7197269,1618,2005,6664,27517,23112,166,15.015.912.712.317.018.834.220.814.318.4,14.414.812.610.614.514.814.712.113.217.5,13.412.311.09.412.914.511.010.912.112.8,9.811.87.95.712.012.012.37.99.011.2,9.011.37.24.512.08.49.810.78.811.7,7.710.37.33.810.58.08.49.57.89.5,8.08.88.45.910.08.313.87.97.79.7,7.99.06.34.19.65.88.38.57.18.9,6.68.06.23.68.16.26.57.25.47.2,NM18.713.313.3NM14.39.520.815.514.9,NM17.913.113.1NM11.811.412.614.611.6,NM17.514.714.7NM11.312.012.512.413.7,(168.4)(15.7)32.8(101.8)(22.6)(1.0)43.81.060.5(11.1),4.3201.73.32.62.70.03.21.82.72.5,Median,16.4,14.5,12.2,10.5,9.4,8.2,8.3,8.1,6.6,14.6,12.8,13.1,-6.1,2.7,Asian drillers,Aban Offshore(Rs)(a)COSL H share(HK$),ABAN.BO2883.HK,39614.28,NCNeutral,3148,230,4.412.8,5.611.0,4.79.3,NA9.4,NA8.3,NA6.9,7.19.1,7.77.5,7.56.3,NA10.6,NA11.1,NA11.5,12.965.8,1.12.1,Median,8.6,8.3,7.0,9.4,8.3,6.9,8.1,7.6,6.9,10.6,11.1,11.5,39.3,1.6,COSL A share(Rmb)COOEC A share(Rmb),601808.SS600583.SS,16.535.84,NeutralSell,10,9523,646,18.4125.5,15.840.4,13.736.8,12.217.2,10.915.8,9.213.8,11.920.0,9.812.6,8.412.3,10.615.8,11.112.8,11.512.5,65.815.9,1.50.6,(a)For fiscal year-ended following March(i.e.,fiscal 2011E appears as 2010E).(b)Aban Offshore is based on Bloomberg consensus estimates.(c)*Denotes stockis on regional Conviction list.Source:Datastream,Company data,Bloomberg,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.高华证券投资研究,4,2013 年 1 月 8 日,海油工程(600583.SS),Cyclical,low-margin asset heavy business yet premium valuationWe initiate coverage on Offshore Oil Engineering Co.,Ltd.(COOEC)with a Sell rating and 12-month TP of Rmb3.92(based on 8.0X 2013E EV/EBITDA),with potential downside of 33%.Webelieve its substantial premium valuation at 17X 2013E EV/EBITDA does not look compelling vsglobal peers at 6X-7X.Our 2012-14E EPS estimates and EBIT margins are 10%-31%and 1-3pp below Bloombergconsensus,respectively.In our view,consensus estimates are not appropriately reflecting thebottom-line challenges that COOEC is likely to face in the coming years.We seeconsiderable risk to consensus estimates due to:Heavy customer concentration,which restricts its pricing power and increases its exposureto cyclical earnings.Lack of expertise and capacity,reducing operational efficiency and leading to lower margins.Absence of future strategy to play its strengths by a management team that is in transition,reducing margins.An increasing focus on onshore and downstream projects is likely to limitCOOECs longer-term margin outlook,in our view.COOECs overseas efforts also faceconstraints,leading to lower margins.CNOOCs moderate production growth,leading to muted earnings growth.Heavy fixed assets and rising costs,leading to low margins.In our view,COOEC will be unlikely to register medium-term sector outperformance due to itslow-end project pipeline,low margins,heavy dependence on CNOOC,and as it is in the earlystages of its learning curve for high-margin,more complex projects.We believe COOECsvaluation would need to fall back in line with its global peers before we could turn more positiveon the stock.In the longer term,any improvement in earnings would make COOEC more attractive.We thinkthis might be possible if its current restructuring drives catalysts such as more high-marginoffshore activities,increased critical deepwater capacities,a more diversified customer base,aclear global strategy,and higher margins.Exhibit 2:Our 12-month target price for COOEC is Rmb3.9212-month target prices and ratings summary,Potential,2012E,4-Jan-13,Rating,Target,upside%,Dividend,Potential,Valuation,E&P and Integrated oils,Ticker,price,Price,to TP,yield%,TSR,Methodology,Sinopec A share(Rmb)Sinopec ADS(US$)Sinopec H share(HK$)PetroChina A share(Rmb)PetroChina H share(HK$)PetroChina ADR(US$)CNOOC(HK$)CNOOC ADR(US$),600028.SSSNP0386.HK601857.SS0857.HKPTR0883.HKCEO,6.96118.499.149.0511.20145.6517.34224.90,BuyBuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNot RatedNot Rated,7.95121.009.359.9011.00142.00NANA,14%2%2%9%-2%-3%NANA,3.4%3.2%3.2%3.6%3.7%3.7%3.4%3.3%,18%5%6%13%2%1%NANA,A to H premiumDirectors CutDirectors CutA to H premiumDirectors CutDirectors CutNANA,Oil Services,COSL A share(Rmb)COSL(HK$)COOEC A share(Rmb),601808.SS2883.HK600583.SS,16.5316.485.84,NeutralNeutralSell,18.1016.603.92,9%1%-33%,1.3%1.6%0.6%,11%2%-32%,A to H premiumTarget EV/EBITDATarget EV/EBITDA,Source:Datastream,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.高华证券投资研究,5,2013 年 1 月 8 日,海油工程(600583.SS)Our estimates are below Bloomberg consensus on EBIT,net income,EPS,and EBIT margin.We expect significant earnings downgrades by the market over the next 6-12 months,as it becomes clear that the companys strategy is not delivering earnings growth.Exhibit 3:We are more bearish than consensusOur earnings estimates are 10%-31%below Bloomberg consensus 2012E-2014E,(Rmb mn)GS,2012E,2013E,2014E,RevenueEBITNet incomeEPSEBIT margin,11,9229175620.147.7%,13,1141,0306170.167.9%,14,0321,3019010.239.3%,Consensus,RevenueEBITNet incomeEPSEBIT margin,10,7009476670.169%,13,4231,4259510.2211%,16,5932,0471,3270.3312%,GS vs.consensus,RevenueEBITNet incomeEPSEBIT margin,11%-3%-16%-10%-1%,-2%-28%-35%-29%-3%,-15%-36%-32%-31%-3%,Source:Bloomberg,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.Heavy customer concentration,restricting its pricing power andincreasing its exposure to cyclical earningsCOOEC depends heavily on its primary customer the CNOOC Groups domestic developmentCAPEX and production plan,restricting its pricing power and increasing its exposure to cyclicalearnings.COOEC mainly conducts its business offshore China.COOEC is the dominant engineering andconstruction services provider offshore China,with the CNOOC Group as its primary and moststable customer.CNOOC-related transactions has accounted for over 60%of COOECs totalsales(although the percentage has been falling),and we expect CNOOC to remain the majorcontributor to COOECs future revenues.COOEC benefits from CNOOCs status as thedominant oil and gas producer offshore China.In addition,COOEC often is a default serviceprovider to international oil companies that operate in China and are partners with CNOOC onits production sharing contracts(PSCs),as CNOOC has the exclusive right to jointly explore anddevelop offshore China with foreign oil companies such as Husky Energy Inc.As such,COOECs revenue is mainly driven by CNOOCs domestic development CAPEX.Therefore,we think the amount and timing of CNOOCs CAPEX and production plans are vitalto understand the revenue drivers for COOEC.高华证券投资研究,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2002,2003,2004,2012E,2013E,2014E,-,6,2013 年 1 月 8 日Exhibit 4:CNOOCs domestic development CAPEXmainly drives COOECs revenuesCOOECs revenue and CNOOCs domestic development CAPEX2002-2014E,海油工程(600583.SS)Exhibit 5:Related transactions have consistentlyaccounted for over 60%of COOECs total salesCOOECs revenue 2001-2011,14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-,250%200%150%100%50%0%,12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000,100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%,10%,Total sales(Rmb mn),2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,0%,COOEC sales as a%of CNOOC domestic development capexSource:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua,Total related transaction(Rmb mn)Source:Company data.,Related transaction revenue as a%of total sales,Securities Research estimates.However,such heavy customer concentration bears risks,as COOEC earnings arecyclical and dependent on CNOOC CAPEX and production plans.The high percentage of related transactions leads to COOEC suffering fromweak