第二季度世界黄金需求趋势.ppt

04,02,22,22,29,28,20,18,14,15,17,1,600,1,200,600,400,0,Q208,Q408,Q209,Q409,Q210,Q410,Q211,Jewellery,Technology,as demand by category Read and,1,400,1,000,200,London PM offset by,Source:GFMS,and World Gold Council,0,Gold Demand TrendsSecond quarter 2011,August 2011OverviewSecond quarter global gold demand was919.8 tonnes,worth US$44.5bn thesecond highest quarterly value on record.Year-on-year growth was broad-basedacross sectors and geographies.Indiaand China were the major contributors togrowth in both jewellery and investmentdemand.We view the prospects for bothmarkets for the remainder of the yearGold optimistic.in tonnesmorethe gold price(US$/oz)Tonnes,US$/ozThe VIST countries of Global gold market South East Asia second quarter 2011 review800Chinas gold-consuming neighbours,The second quarter witnessed healthyVietnam,Indonesia,South Korea and levels of demand across all sectors.Thailand,have a long and important In year-on-year terms,solid growth inrelationship with gold,which we expect jewellery and technology demand in thewill be further deepened by increased Investmentsecond quarter wasx(US$/oz)a decline inliberalisation LBMA,growing regional ETF demand from the exceptional levelsprosperity.Read more of Q2 2010.Read moreGold demand by category in tonnes and the gold price(US$/oz)Tonnes,US$/oz1,6001,200800400,www.gold.orgContentsOverviewThe VIST countries ofSouth East AsiaGlobal gold market second quarter 2011 reviewJewelleryTechnologyInvestmentSupplyGold demand statisticsDemandHistorical data for gold demandAppendixContributorsLouise Streetlouise.streetgold.orgJohan Palmbergjohan.palmberggold.orgJuan Carlos Artigasjuancarlos.artigasgold.orgEily Ongeily.onggold.orgMarcus GrubbManaging Director,Investmentmarcus.grubbgold.org,Q208,Q408,Q209,Q409,Q210,Q410,Q211,Jewellery,Technology,Investment,London PM x(US$/oz),Source:GFMS,LBMA,World Gold Council,OverviewSecond quarter global gold demand was 919.8 tonnes,worth US$44.5bn the second highest quarterly valueon record.Year-on-year growth was broad-based acrosssectors and geographies.In volume terms,demand was17%below the remarkably strong levels of demand seenin Q2 2010,while in value terms demand grew by 5%.Healthy growth in jewellery demand and modest gainsin demand from the technology sector were offset by ayear-on-year decline in investment,principally from ETFsand similar products.Although they attracted sizable netinflows in Q2 2011,ETFs were unable to match the levelsof investment recorded in Q2 2010,which saw the secondhighest quarterly inflows on record.,The gold price reached a series of new record highs duringthe second quarter and the average price for the period wasup 26%year-on-year and up 9%on the prior quarter.Similarto Q1 however,the price did not rise in a straight line and themovement in the quarterly average masks some notableintra-quarter price action.After reaching a high of US$1,541/ozin early May,aided by soaring commodity prices and continuedconcerns over the outlook for western economies,goldcorrected back below US$1,500/oz.However,gold wasrelatively protected from the sharp sell-off that affected manycommodities and the dip provided jewellery consumers andinvestors alike with an opportune entry point.The gold price resumed its ascent during May and most of Juneas European policy makers wrestled with the potential prospectof a Greek default and equity prices around the world fell.Aftersetting a new record at US$1,552.50/oz,gold retreated backtowards US$1,500/oz,providing a final boost to demand at theclose of the quarter.Year-on-year growth in second quarter gold demand wasbroad-based across sectors and geographies.However,thetwo markets that stood out once again as major contributorsto overall growth were India and China.These two marketsaccounted for 52%of global bar and coin investment and 55%of global jewellery demand.Year-on-year volume growth intotal consumer demand was 38%in India and 25%in China,compared with a global growth rate of 7%.Gold Demand Trends|Second quarter 2011,Prospects for both markets for the remainder of the yearremain optimistic.Although momentum behind Indian jewellerydemand could slow in the seasonally quiet third quarter,weexpect demand in both countries to benefit from a range ofsupporting factors,including:relative economic prosperity;highinflation rates;a good monsoon in India;as well as a number offorthcoming festivals and holidays in which gold purchasing iscustomary.In line with our expectations,the second quarter markedanother quarter of positive demand for gold from the officialsector.Net purchases of 69.4 tonnes demonstrated that centralbanks continued to turn to gold to diversify their reserve assets.We maintain our view that the official sector will remain a netbuyer of gold throughout 2011.At 51.7 tonnes,demand for ETFs and similar products in Q2was solid when compared with historical averages.However,the year-on-year comparison is weakened by the exceptionalstrength of demand in Q2 2010 when,primarily western,investors sought protection in huge numbers against Europesburgeoning debt crisis.During the second quarter of this year,demand was concentrated in Europe,again related to fears overEuropean stability and contagion from a potential Greek default,and in India,where ETFs have rapidly gained in popularity duringrecent months.,Investment demand for bars and coins was a robust307.7 tonnes(with a value of US$14.9bn),benefitting from abroad geographical base of demand.Year-on-year growth wasconcentrated in the non-western markets,largely reflective of agreater acceptance of higher price levels and the anticipation offurther price rises among investors in Asian and Middle Easternmarkets.Although western markets generated substantiallylower investment than in Q2 2010,this is far more indicativeof the strength of demand in Q2 2010 than of any weakness indemand in the second quarter of this year.Investment demand in Europe has undergone a distinct shiftin the last three years,establishing itself at average levels thatwould have seemed completely unattainable even as recentlyas 2007.This is demonstrated by the case of France,where the,years as French investors increasingly choose to preserveand add to their holdings of gold bars and coins as protectionagainst the difficult prevailing economic and financial marketconditions.Indications are that demand in European marketswill remain elevated over the coming quarters as regionalcontagion fears continue to circulate and western economicgrowth remains fragile.Mine production rose again in the second quarter,up 7%to708.8 tonnes from 659.4 tonnes in the comparative period.Growth in production was widespread,with increases notedacross all geographical regions due to a number of new startups as well as improved output at existing operations.Gold mineproduction is expected to increase throughout the remainder of2011,in a continuation of the recent gentle uptrend.,long-established trend of disinvestment has inverted over recent02_03,The VIST countries ofSouth East AsiaRanked by total gold demand,China is a clear leader inSouth East Asia with annual tonnage exceeding that ofthe next four combined:Vietnam,Indonesia,South Koreaand Thailand(hereafter referred to as the VIST groupof countries).,While these four countries may be overshadowed in manyaspects by their giant neighbour,they are,and have beenfor thousands of years,key gold consuming countries.Recent developments point to a changing landscape asinvestment demand outpaces jewellery demand.However,this development will not alter the close cultural,religious andeconomic ties the group of countries has with gold.They willcontinue to be key gold consuming countries in the future.Central bank activity among the VIST countries in H1 2011has seen 28%increase in gold holdings in a sector whichhas remained largely dormant in the last ten years,partlyreflecting concerns over major reserve currencies and alsoproviding a seal of approval,to other investors,on the meritsof holding gold.The recent launch of the VIST countries first physicallybacked gold Exchange Traded Fund(ETF)in Thailand,one ofonly a handful in Asia,is indicative of the changing landscapeof investment vehicles as the regions prosperity grows andfinancial markets mature.The reaction of recycled gold to price rises in the VISTcountries has diminished,suggesting an exhaustion of near-market supply or at the very least,a growing acceptance ofhigher prices ahead.Despite a drop in total tonnage for the VIST countries over thepast ten years,the amount spent on jewellery and investmentgold products per capita has remained remarkably steady.,Stepping out of Chinas golden shadowChina,along with India,has understandably been one of thefocal points in the gold market over the last decade as its shareof total global demand has climbed from 6%in 2000 to 18%in 2010.This remarkable shift in the global demand balancehas come about as the combined forces of growing wealth,deregulation,increased access,but also heightened economicconcerns have compelled consumers to act on their deepaffinity for gold.The extent of Chinas rise has also pushed some of Chinasgold consuming neighbours into the countrys shadow.As of year-end 2010,total gold demand in China reached706.7 tonnes,more than twice that of the VIST countriescombined.However,an affinity for gold is not exclusive toChina.The VISTs have a long and important relationship withgold,one which is both cultural and economic in nature fromThailands gold-clad temples and Buddhas to Vietnams use ofgold,along with zinc,silver and copper,1 as means of exchangeover the last 2000 years.Despite this historical bond,a cursory glance at gold demandstatistics covering the VISTs,paints a somewhat discouragingpicture.In tonnage terms total gold demand in all but one ofthe group was lower in 2010 than ten years prior(the exceptionbeing Vietnam),and jewellery demand has fallen in all fourcountries over the same period.This steady decline in aggregatejewellery buying from 226 tonnes in 2000 to just below70 tonnes during the last calendar year has been the main,contributing factor to aggregate gold demand dropping from324 tonnes to 253 tonnes over the same timeframe(Chart 1).However,a cursory glance does not reveal the changinglandscape of gold demand in these countries.Nor does itshow how real spending on gold has remained remarkablysteady even as tonnage has fallen and has recently picked upto approach decade highs.Furthermore,it fails to capture howglobalisation,regulatory changes and most recently,economicconcerns,are set to drive gold demand higher in the future.1 A literal translation of the Vietnamese currency dong means copper or bronze.Gold Demand Trends|Second quarter 2011,DemandJewelleryGrowth in demand has been exceptional across regions andcurrencies,and the metal has experienced a sea-change in howit is viewed by private as well as public investors.But the risein the gold price has also caused some traditional markets tochange.In the VIST countries,the notable shift has been fromjewellery demand towards investment demand.However,asis the case in many emerging markets,jewellery demand andinvestment demand are often fungible and the demand forgold as a store or accumulator of wealth,as an auspicious giftor as insurance against unforeseen risks,is to a large extentindependent of the form it takes.,Many of the developments in jewellery have taken placeon the caratage front,with shifts from high to lower purity.In Indonesia,10 carat jewellery has replaced 17 carat asthe purity of choice,as rural buyers on monthly salaries ofUS$120 per month are forced to trade down.In South Korea,where auspicious gold jewellery gifts are a regular feature ofbirth,first birthday,retirement and house-buying occasions,caratage has also fallen.In some cases jewellery has beenreplaced by gold bars.However,the 10%sales tax surchargelevied on gold investment bars often acts as a disincentiveto invest in them.Wedding gold in Korea,much like in itsneighbour Japan,has seen a shift from 18 to 14 caratswhich now accounts for 80%of sales.In Thailand,a similardevelopment has also been observed,although high-caratage,jewellery with its unique 96.5%purity(23 carat)is still beingbought as an investment.Chart 1:Aggregate VIST countries annual gold demandTonnes35030025020015010050,0,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,Investment,Technology,Jewellery,Source:GFMS,World Gold Council04_05,While the overall picture for the groups jewellery segmentis less than positive,there are signs that the decline may bebottoming.For example,spending on gold products has defiedthe aggregate tonnage drop.Gold demand measured as theproportion of income spent,aggregated over the VIST countries,has remained remarkably steady during the last ten years andhas picked up in 2010 to approach the highs reached in 2008during the global financial crisis(Chart 2).Furthermore,while demand for jewellery as an investment maycontinue to fall,demand for gold as an adornment should pick upas disposable income rises.One country where a recovery mayslowly be taking shape is Vietnam(Chart 3).Although,someof this demand,certainly during the last quarter may be due toconcerns over future imposition of legislative limits or caps onbar transactions,it is nonetheless a trend which appears to beincreasing with strong first quarter tonnage figures this year andlast.Caratage has dropped somewhat as prices have risen,but 24 carat gold still accounts for 35%of the market and therevival of chi rings(please see page 16),popularised in the1980s,could shift the balance back towards higher caratagegoing forward.,InvestmentInvestment and jewellery in Asia are often viewed as one andthe same.Auspicious buying of jewellery or gold bars hasa tendency to bear similar motives of wealth preservation,savings and“rainy day”insurance.However,the slow declinein jewellery purchases and the steady increase in investmentbuying are indicative of an evolving landscape.Jewellerypurchases have traditionally been the mainstay of the ruraldemographic segment with consumers outside urban areaslacking access to other channels of gold buying.As prices haverisen over the last few years,many of these rural buyers havebeen priced out of the market.By contrast,urbanisation andgrowing wealth has spurred increased gold investment productinterest among the emerging middle classes.The changing landscape should in the long term be goodfor gold demand,but this is likely to be a bumpy transitionas growing wealth and urbanisation may erode traditions.Disposable income,particularly among a younger demographic,could be directed towards consumer electronics and anexpanding array of financial and saving products will competewith gold.However,there will also be increasing need to,protect and diversify growing wealth and to manage the riskof a growing pool of assets.A rediscovery of gold is a highlyprobable outcome in such circumstances.Total bar