中国房地产市场的发展【外文翻译】 .doc

本科毕业设计（论文）外 文 翻 译原文：Development of Chinas Real Estate MarketOver the past two decades, real estate has evolved from government controlled to a commercial product, emerging and developing into an important component of Chinas financial markets. Although the overall gross domestic product (GDP) and income levels have been growing rapidly, the even-faster rising housing costs have exacerbated the problem of housing affordability. Real estate development has become a key factor in Chinas economic growth, as real estate has become an essential part of the overall functioning of the economy. Recent signs following the global financial crisis suggest that Chinas real estate market has bottomed and may be on its way to a rebound. In the long run, this market offers lucrative investment opportunities for domestic and foreign investors.The government owned, controlled, and managed all real estate in China under a socialist central-planning system until 1988, when reform in this sector started (Fung, Huang, Liu, and Shen 2006). Since then, a market-based real estate industry has gradually developed, related legislation was enacted, and various types of real estate services have emerged. During this period, real estate in China has changed from a public to a commercial product. Although the state remains the owner of land in name, the rights of land use and land improvements are now commonly privately owned. The privatization effort has driven the growth of the real estate industry, and has made it possible for many modern business practices to be introduced into China.In recent years, Chinas real estate market has demonstrated increasing integration with real estate markets in other parts of the world, with almost synchronous ebbs and flows. This gave rise to imbalances between supply and demand, increasing real estate price volatility. In addition, the Chinese economy has been growing at one of the fastest rates in the world, leading to rising disposable income levels.The increase in housing prices have actually outpaced income growth, thereby exacerbating the affordability problem. A comparison between the inland area and the more affluent coastal area finds that the latters housing affordability problem has been more severe.Nevertheless, since 1997, the heavy investment in the real estate sector has provided an important impetus for overall economic growth, by stimulating the demand for many other industries, including machinery, steel, electronics, chemical products, and architecture. This is especially important for the economy of a country like China, where savings rates are high and consumption share in the GDP is relatively low.Another important development in recent years is the real estate markets increasing integration with its counterparts in other countries. For instance, the real estate bubble between early 2003 and late 2007 and the ensuing rapid cool-off coincided with many other markets. The global financial crisis exacerbated the decline, giving rise to a host of problems including widespread mortgage loan defaults, negative net worth families, and aborted construction projects. This global integration both poses serious challenges and brings opportunities to domestic and foreign investors.Challenges Although Chinas real estate market is still in a relatively early stage of development in comparison to the United States and other developed markets, Chinas real estate boom between 1998 and 2007 was one of the biggest in the world. During this period, the average annual growth rate for real estate investment was 22.1 percent, more than double the average GDP growth rate of 9.4 percent. In particular, theaverage annual growth between 2000 and 2007 exceeded 20 percent, and surpassed 30 percent every year between 2003 and 2007 (Pan 2009). However, beginning in the second half of 2007, Chinas real estate market took a big tumble, resulting in substantial losses for real estate investors.The recent cyclical changes in the real estate market and the global financial crisis exemplify the inherent risk in real estate investments. However, much like the Chinese word “crisis,” composed of the signs for “danger” and “opportunity,”challenges and opportunities go hand-in-hand.OpportunitiesDue to the special features of its political decision-making system, the Chinese government has quickly formulated and put into effect numerous policies and regulations to address the sharp decline in the real estate market.“China is unusual in that it has this incredible capacity to mobilize all its institutions,” said Vikram Nehru, the World Banks chief economist for Asia (Batson 2009). Because the downturn that began in the second half of 2007 caused many economic and social problems, many policies and regulations favorable to real estate market participants were enacted by both the central and local governments and took effect in 2008.These included reducing mortgage interest rates, lowering payment requirements, extending mortgage loan terms, relaxing or eliminating the caps on loans from the housing Public Accumulation Fund, conversion of commercial mortgage loans to government-backed ones, reducing or removing the housing deed tax, offering direct subsidies to house buyers, relaxing regulations on second-house purchases, and eliminating the real estate stamp tax (Fung et al. 2006).By the end of the first quarter of 2009, the real estate market in China had started to show signs of recovery. Although housing prices still remain at a relatively low level, Cheng (2009) reported that many cities saw increases in housing transactions as compared to the same period last year, including Beijing (6.28 percent), Shanghai (27.89 percent), Tianjin (15.77 percent), and Nanjing (9.17 percent). This recovery can be attributable to the aforementioned stimulative policies and regulations and, more importantly, to the recent rapid expansion of the money supply. According to statistics released by the Peoples Bank of China, as of the end of February 2009, various loan balances at financial institutions were RMB33.06 trillion, a 24.17 percent increase over one year ago. In particular, the balances rose by RMB1.07 trillion in the month of February alone, a whopping jump of 441 percent over the increase in the same month a year ago. In addition, a good portion of the recently announced RMB4 trillion (US$585 billion) economic stimulus program was aimed to boost fixed assets and housing investments and expected to further revive the real estate market. By the end of February, real estate-related stocks traded on the 90 The Chinese Economy.Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges recorded considerable gains, and Chinas real estate stock index gained over 40 percent.It is uncertain how long the world financial crisis will last and how much impact it will have on Chinas real estate market, but the market appears to have bottomed out. Some economists have predicted that China will be among the first to come out of the global downturn. Batson (2009) argued that Chinas economy will turn a corner as the RMB4 trillion stimulus program kicks in, as evidenced by rising crude oil and iron ore imports, record monthly car sales figures, improved manager confidence, a 34.24 percent rise in the Shanghai Composite stock index, and rising real estate sales. Anderlini (2009) also reported a rebound in real estate capital spending and transaction volumes, and the first slight rise in month-on-month prices in March 2009 since July 2008.From our perspective, there might still be considerable fluctuations and risks in the long run, however, Chinas real estate market is expected to offer lucrative returns and rewarding opportunities for domestic and foreign investors.The Real Estate Industry and the Overall EconomyChinas economy has been growing at one of the fastest rates in the last decade. There are many reasons for this growth, and real estate development is one of them. Unlike in many Western developed economies, where consumption accounts for 60 to 80 percent of the overall GDP, consumption only constitutes about 40 percent of the Chinese economy.Thus, investments, especially those in real estate and infrastructure, play a critical role in Chinas economic development. Chinas GDP grows at an annual rate of 10.9 percent, while real estate capital, or the newly-created value of real estate through investment, expands at a faster rate of 13.0 percent. Real estate capital as a percentage of GDP increased from 36.7 percent in 1997 to 42.6 percent by 2005. These percentages are at about the same level as the weights of consumption in the economy, suggesting that consumption and real estate investment are of approximately the same importance to the overall economy. Actually, real estate investment has risen during this period, in view of its steadily increasing weight in the GDP, in contrast to the decreasing share of consumption.Second, as urban areas dominate Chinas economy, urban fixed-asset investments account for the majority of real estate capital, growing at an annual rate of 18.6 percent. In the mean time, over 60 percent of these investments are construction and installation projects, expanding at an even faster annual rate of 18.8 percent. Thus, it can be argued that construction and installation projects drive the growth of urban fixed-asset investments. These drive the growth of the overall real estate industry, which, in turn, drives the growth of the overall economy.Third, the construction of new urban areas (roads, bridges, and other infrastructure) and housing represents the main component of construction and installation projects. New urban areas, completed between 1997 and 2005, and comprising 12,307 square kilometers, accounted for 37.8 percent of the total urban area as of the end of 2005. The new urban housing comprising 10.34 billion square meters, completed during the same period, constituted 62.9 percent of total housing. Meanwhile, the cumulative newly constructed 744,700 kilometers of highways and 33,643 kilometers of new expressways represent 38.6 percent and 91.7 percent, respectively, of the total roadways at the end of the period. These high percentages demonstrate the exceptional efforts by the government to improve and expand housing and infrastructure during this period.Fourth, government expropriations of land, actually mainly of rural land, are the main source of supply. Cumulative land expropriations between 1997 and 2005 added up to 10,996 square kilometers, accounting for 89.4 percent of the new urban januaryfebruary 2010. As most of this is arable land, such fast urbanization did, to a certain degree, negatively affect agricultural production, and create some social issues. But on the other hand, as then-premier Zhu Rongji argued, it provided the indispensable foundation for further economic development.The construction of roads, highways, and expressways provides another impetus for economic growth by serving as a platform for local governments to utilize financial resources and stimulate local economies. China has one of the highest savings rates in the world, usually above 40 percent. Chinese banks, mostly owned and operated by the government, attract vast amounts of capital.The immature and volatile capital markets have not been able to provide outlets for this capital. In light of this, the government adopted the policy of “borrow to build, and use the toll to repay” in road construction. By 2006, 96 percent of expressways (about 39,500 km), 70 percent of Level 1 highways (about 26,900 km), and 46 percent of Level 2 highways (about 113,000 km) had been completed using this approach.Between 2004 and 2006, the highway administrations of several provinces provided net government investments of only RMB2.11 billion, but the total bank capital that road construction projects utilized amounts to RMB60.3 billion, with a ratio of bank capital to net government investments of RMB28.6 billion. This means that RMB1 billion of net government spending in this area results in RMB28.6 billion of bank capital being utilized, creating a sizeable ripple effect in the economy. The banks, in fact, often compete for such lending opportunities because of the role played by local governments and the lucrative toll funds that result from these projects. More important, most such government investments turn out to be profitable, with revenues of RMB16.01 billion far exceeding expenditures of RMB12.76 billion.ConclusionsOver the past two decades, Chinas real estate has evolved from government controlled to a commercial product. The real estate market has emerged and developed into an important component of Chinas financial markets. This market has quickly been integrated into the world market, as demonstrated by its cycle, which has generally coincided with those in other countries. The higher volatility in housing prices, a byproduct of such integration, could become an important issue that investors and authorities need to examine closely in the future.Although the overall GDP and income levels have been growing rapidly, the even-faster rising housing costs have exacerbated the housing affordability problem, appearing to be more serious in the more affluent coastal areas. Real estate development has become a key factor in Chinas economic growth and an essential part of the overall functioning of the economy. On the other hand, if Chinas economy can maintain healthy growth in the current world economic environment, it will be able to further stimulate the demand for bigger and better housing.The decline in Chinas real estate market since the second half of 2007 and the ongoing world financial crisis have posed serious challenges to market participants. But there have been signs recently that suggest the market has bottomed and may be on its way to a rebound. In the long run, we believe this market offers lucrative investment opportunities for domestic and foreign investors.SOURCE：Hung-Gay Fung,Jau-Lian Jeng,Qingfeng Liu，2010，“Development of China's Real Estate Market” ，The Chinese Economy,vol. 43, no. 1, JanuaryFebruary 2010, pp. 7192译文：中国房地产市场的发展在过去的20年里, 对中国金融市场而言，房地产市场已经从政府控制发展成为一项商业产品,演变与发展成一个重要组成部分。虽然整个国内生产总值(GDP)和收入水平一直在增长快速，导致了住房成本的持续上涨也加重了人们对住房的承受能力。房地产开发已成为一个关键因素,中国的经济发展，随着房地产已成为整个功能性经济的一个基本组成部分了。近年来全球金融危机影响中国的房地产市场陷入低谷，或者可能在某种程度上有所反弹。从长远来看,这个市场为国内外的投资者提供了有利的投资机会。从社会主义开始中央统筹直至1988年为止，当改革开放政策实行开始，政府就已经拥有、控制和管理了所有中国房地产行业。从那以后,以市场为基础的房地产业已逐步发展，相关的立法得以颁布，以及不同类型的房地产服务也出现了。在此期间,中国已发生了巨大变化，就是房地产从公共产品变为商业产品。尽管土地的所有权名字还是国家，但土地的利用权力与土地的使用现今都已经普遍私有化了。国有企业民营化的努力已驱动房地产业的增长,并使许多先进的商业运行模式被引进到中国。近年来,我国的房地产市场已经证实与世界其他地方的房地产市场日益一体化甚至于几乎同步衰退和进步。这引起了供给与需求之间的不平衡,提高了房地产市场价格的波动。此外,中国是经济发展速度最快的国家之一,导致了收入水平之间的巨大差距。房屋价格大幅度的增加脱离了收入增长的幅度,从而在实际上加剧了购买力的问题。和内陆较富裕的沿海地区比较后发现,国民的居住均衡问题更加严重。然而,自从1997年开始,大量投资房地产领域这一行为为全面的经济增长提供了一个重要的推动力,还刺激了国家内需,其中包括许多其他的工业，例如机械产业、钢产业、电子