环保行业投资策略—寻求主题投资与业绩确定的平衡.ppt

110104,110204,110304,110404,110504,110604,110704,110804,110904,111004,111104,2,0,-10,-20,/,2011,12,7,201209,79.0%,2015,021-S1010510120063,07,10,2012,021-,PM2.5POPs SPOCProductization20P/E,2012SPOC,7SolutionOperating Cashflow201220 25,P/E,10-30-40,S1010510120066300,SPOC,10,40%2011P/E=43,10A,EPS11E,12E,10A,P/E11E,12E,P/B,PEG,48.1827.939.10,0.550.600.20,1.030.660.50,1.631.120.58,884746,474218,302516,5.23.02.9,1.51.00.9,28.5929.0053.6218.3225.4925.49,1.100.500.630.360.350.40,1.160.700.850.430.580.65,1.320.921.640.660.760.93,265885517364,254163434439,223233283427,2.78.24.85.35.53.6,2.91.71.71.51.41.3,12,.2011-11-1011.0%2011.2011-11-04,53.3610.2511.12,0.850.350.21,1.090.510.29,1.530.610.32,632953,492038,351735,3.32.13.1,2.01.12.0,3,2011,10,2011-11-02,2011,11,25,SPOC,SPOC,SPOCer,2012,.1.1.2,.2.3.3.4.4,.8.8.11.14.15,.15.15.16.17,.17,.17.19,4,9 36,CPI,20,21,24,25,26,27,28,P/E,2012,1 2005 20102 2005 20103 2005 2010,SO2,COD,.1MW.1.1,.3,5 2005 20106 20107 2010,.4.4.5,8 201010 2005 201111 201112 201113 201114 201115 2006 201116 2001 2011M917 2001 2011M918 2001 2011M919 2001 2011M9,SO2CODNOx,10%GDP,.5.7.8.8.8.9.9.10.10.10.10.10,.13.13,22 2005 2011M923 2005 2011M9,.14.14.15.16.16.16.16,29 20113031 201132 2006 2011,3002011,.17.17.18.18,1,2,3,4,6,12,13,19,20,22,23,24,25,2012.1.2.2.2,5 20117 20088 20119 201110 2011,.3.4.5.5.6.7,11 SNCR,SCR,660MW,.9,.9.11,14 201115 201116 2011,.11.12.12,1718,2011H1,mg/m3,.13.14,.14.17,21 2012,.18.19.19.20.22,/,2012,SO21 2005 2010SO2,CODCOD,14.3%,12.5%,3,0002,500,2,549,2,589,SO22,468,COD2,321,2,214,2,185,2,000,1,500,1,414,1,428,1,381,1,321,1,278,1,238,1,0005000,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2 2005 2010,MW,3 2005 2010,700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000,(,),90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000,(,),90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,1,4,200,/,19.1%,1616%,SO2CODNOx,14.3%12.5%,8%8%10%10%,2011,12,7,1,20122,SO2,COD,NOx,20102015,2,267.82,086.4-8.0%-181.4,2,551.72,347.6-8.0%-204.1,2,273.62,046.2-10.0%-227.4,264.4238.0-10.0%-26.4,-277,-280-140,-358,-30-10,-276,-420,-358,-40,20113,05.11.2305.12.2207.05.30,400,09.02.2009.07.2311.06.04,20,4,322,66,55,11.07.21409.07.2909.08.1611.05.0311.06.2211.09.29,261532277,168,50,200,5,000,2015,2011,11,12,2,APEC,2011,12,7,2,2012425,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E,5 2011,1989,20,201120112011,234,201120112011201120112011201120112011,455667888,2011,2011GDP3,201120112011,999,92011,1,3,2011,12,7,3,(,),20126,2009200920102010,91223,2005,133,2010,2,442,79.0%5 2005 20103,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500,21.5%3.00%2.50%2.00%1.50%1.00%0.50%,6 201040.9%,2008 20092.8%,0,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,0.00%,56.3%,Wind,Wind,25%,2008,2008,2010,2011,12,7,4,201215%,7 201030.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%Wind1123,2008,8 201025.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%WindCO2,10%,100%100%50%7 2008,-,-,-,30%,-,-,50%,-,30%,-8 2011100%,-,-,2011,12,7,5,/,/,/,2012100%-,80%,50%,-,3,-,PVC,PET,0.5,/g,1%,1ug/g,-20119 2011,11.01.2611.01.27,20112010,1,1,5,483,2011,2,11.02.17,11.04.0111.04.2511.05.1711.05.17,42011,1,5,/,1036,5,11.05.23,7,1,0.37,/,11.05.27,155,11.06.13,7,1,13,/,6,/,11.06.13,7,5,/,11.06.22,7,1,10,/,11.06.29,13,/,15,/,11.06.30,11.06.30,7,1,11.07.11,3,/,11.07.22,10,1,10,/,11.07.2811.08.18,89,11,8,9,/,11.08.2611.09.2911.10.14,3,0.84,2011,12,7,6,200601,200604,200607,200610,200701,200704,200707,200710,200801,200804,200807,200810,200901,200904,200907,200910,201001,201004,201007,201010,201101,201104,201107,/,2012,11.10.2511.11.0211.11.0410,2011,0.8,20122012/,1,1,10,/,2011,9,11.03.14,0.2,/,0.6,/,11.03.2111.06.1311.09.28,11.10.12,0.8,/,1.2,/,11.10.13,4.25,/,4.95,/,10,1,11.11.109 362.502.001.501.000.500.00,SO2,0.010 0.012,/kWh,1,/,CPI,2011,10,5.5%,2011,12,7,7,200501,200504,200507,200510,200601,200604,200607,200610,200701,200704,200707,200710,200801,200804,200807,200810,200901,200904,200907,200910,201001,201004,201007,201010,201101,201104,201107,201110,2012,10,2005,2011,CPI,10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%,2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%NOx,2012,5.5%,20116.17%-0.73%NOx,2012,SO2 COD NOx1.5%,-1.74%-1.63%-8%-8%-10%-10%NOx,11,2011,SO2,12,2011,COD,15.0%10.0%5.0%,2.0%1.0%0.0%,0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%,-1.74%,-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%-5.0%,-1.63%,-25.0%,2011,12,1,0.008,/kWh,SCR,NOx,0.010 0.012,/kWh,2011,12,7,8,2012,13,2011,NOx,14,2011,20.0%15.0%,3.0%2.0%1.0%,10.0%5.0%,6.17%,0.0%-1.0%,-0.73%,-2.0%,0.0%-5.0%,-3.0%-4.0%,11 SNCR,SCR,660MW,SNCR,SNCR-SCR,SCR,MW,6605,500,6605,500,6605,500,NOxNOx,mg/Nm3mg/Nm3/KW/kWh,4002802,4009183451271,605360.0044,4001204,7921,6314052542,636730.0073,400805,2262,0734392773,216790.0089,12,2012,2012,2014,2012,2013,2014,20,18,21,59,MW,9,820,8,910,4,340,23,070,2012LNB+SCR,2011,GDP,3.50%,2011,12,7,9,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2007Q1-3,2008Q1-3,2010A,2011Q1,2006H1,2007Q1,2007H1,2008Q1,2008H1,2009Q1,2009H1,2010Q1,2010H1,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2001,2002,2003,2011H1,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2011M9,2010,2010,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2011M9,2009,2011M9,2011M9,2012,15,2006,2011,GDP,4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%-1.00%-2.00%-3.00%,-4.00%-5.00%-6.00%,-3.50%,16,2001,2011M9,17,2001,2011M9,80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%,Wind,80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%,Wind,18,2001,2011M9,19,2001,2011M9,70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%,Wind,70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%,Wind,4,20152 3,201020,000MW,3,5,2,2012,2011,12,7,10,/,/,2012,2012,7,1,GB5749-2006,1062010,2,/,2.762012,/,50,/,0.90,/,13,1411.03.22,2011,2012,11.05.1611.07.1811.08.12,152,/,0.54.79,PVC,-2012,7,1,2012,2011,11.09.1311.08.2611.09.16,102055,/,0.35,11.11.012011,1 8,11,30,/,2.659,-,2012,1.52011,2011,12,7,11,/,2012,15,2011,2015,11.02.1811.03.17,20072011,6,15%,1,000,2010,10%11.03.17,11.03.18,927,595,2008,70%,11.04.08,2015,10%,80%,70%,11.06.162015,11.07.2111.08.0111.08.29,15%,111,200737,11.08.30,51,719,21,1340,14,370,18,810,11.08.31,2015,100%,1411.09.22,16,2011,18,11.03.24,3.6,42,134,17,11.04.2911.07.0811.07.19,2.2,0.8,2011,TM,11.08.02,65,0.11,27,38,11.08.26,1,/,1,2012,2006,2008,11.09.1311.11.1111.11.18,F,15.22,/,1.2,3.8,2011,12,7,12,8,1,1,2012,202010,17.2%,21,PM2.5,30%50%,11,16,PM2.5PM10,17,3mg/m,0.020,0.060,SO2NO2CO,2424241,0.0500.1500.0400.0800.2004.010.0,0.1500.5000.0400.0800.2004.010.0,O3PM10PM2.5,12424,8,0.1000.1600.0400.0500.0150.035,0.1600.2000.0700.1500.0350.075,POPsPCBsPCB,2011,12,7,13,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2011M9,2010,2011M9,-,-,-,-,-,-,20122009 2010,2006,2012,22 2005 2011M9,23 2005,2011M9,1,0008006004002000-20018,2011H1,4.00%3.50%3.00%2.50%2.00%1.50%1.00%0.50%0.00%-0.50%-1.00%,180160140120100806040200,10%,10%,9.00%8.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%10%,45,09427,673120,52875,04823,99191,52831,00712,06622,11819,145169,176,27,27215,61664,43242,52815,77146,21518,2086,69913,74011,27381,994,15,67020,84131,8181,98421,61155,52021,0623,6637,61836,657,23,72057,18563,51634,3366,9645,3631,6887,89497,640,5,1374,16316,04013,7675,43727,9987,8343,0233,7193,97579,271,25.9%42.5%14.9%1.1%29.8%16.9%20.2%10.3%17.4%3.9%,39.2%26.7%34.6%10.4%6.7%15.1%3.9%16.9%10.5%,65.2%42.5%41.6%35.7%29.8%27.3%26.8%25.4%21.3%16.9%14.4%,19,2010,325,/,130,/,126,/,15,/,1,111,2009,2.7,1.1,2008,10,124,2011,12,7,14,2012SPOC,2011,9,24,SPOC,2011,4,“,”,SPOCSPOCSolution+,2011,12,7,15,2012,2527,ProductizationOperating Cashflow,2628,SPOCer,50,EPC,100,EPC,BOT,Solution,Productization,Operating Cashflow,2011,12,7,16,11-1-4,11-2-4,11-3-4,11-4-4,11-5-4,11-6-4,11-7-4,11-8-4,11-9-4,11-10-4,11-11-4,2012SPOC20+,+,+,EMC,EMCBOT+zzzz,2011,11,251.6,2,72011,30010 11,18.6%13.7%10.8%,5.9%,15%,29,2011,300,%,30,2011,10.05.00.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0-35.0,Wind,300,20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%-50.0%-60.0%,Wind,2011,12,7,17,061013,070209,070615,071019,080215,080613,081017,090220,090619,091016,100212,100618,101015,10,11,110610,110211,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,2012,31,2011,32,2006,2011,P/E,15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%,Wind,300,60.050.040.030.020.010.00.0,Wind,20122012NOx,20,P/E,2012,/,2012,7,1,20 25,P/E,21PM2.5POPs,2012,2012,-,SPOC,-,2011,12,7,18,/,/,201222,10A,EPS11E,12E,13E,10A,11E,P/E,12E,13E,P/B,PEG,48.1827.939.1028.5929.0053.6218.3225.4925.4953.3610.2511.12,0.550.600.201.100.500.630.360.350.400.850.350.21,1.030.660.501.160.700.850.430.580.651.090.510.29,1.631.120.581.320.921.640.660.760.931.530.610.32,2.161.820.671.421.192.120.851.191.341.910.710.43,884746265885517364632953,474218254163434439492038,302516223233283427351735,221514202425222119281426,5.23.02.92.78.24.85.35.53.63.32.13.1,1.51.00.92.91.71.71.51.41.32.01.12.0,2011,11,25,1,000,350,200,400,230,2012,7,1,4MBR,2011 2013,1.03/1.63/2.16,1.21/1.92/3.09,P/E,47/29/222012,33,P/E,MBR,54,23,2009314,2010500,2011E982,2012E1,549,2013E2,022,YoY%YoY%EPS,EPS,6.91076.00.330.33,59.617765.10.550.55,96.233589.11.031.10,57.852857.91.631.75,2011,12,30.569731.92.162.527,19,/,/,2012,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,PEPB,%,ROE%,48.133.42.9214516.5,48.66.019.97882.4,43.910.99.49475.1,43.215.210.72294.5,41.417.512.33223.9,2011,11,25,2011,86.6%12.4%,28.4%,PVC,2008,PVC,75%,320201113,P/E,42/25/15,2011 2013,EPS,0.66/1.12/1.82,2012,30,P/E,33,33,24,2009232,2010336,2011E316,2012E660,2013E1,108,PEPB,YoY%YoY%EPS%,EPSROE%,64.97475.40.460.4648.734.83.55607.9,44.89528.60.600.6042.66.717.69471.6,-5.710610.70.660.7940.57.19.31423.0,108.417969.61.121.2939.911.110.09252.8,68.029363.31.821.9340.016.111.37152.5,2011,11,25,2011,12,7,20,2012,200923211948.74%041.59%2410.20%41.80%08034.47%108167.95%07432.02%,201033619342.56%141.14%288.33%41.13%010129.95%3010488.04%09528.44%,2011E31618840.48%131.00%278.50%-16-4.97%011235.50%2011497.50%010633.39%,2012E66039739.87%271.00%598.95%-18-2.78%020931.67%202113215.00%017927.17%,2013E1,10866540.01%3111.00%988.85%-18-1.61%034230.91%203445215.00%029326.42%,20091131671845343170120293715028801580001586047,20101,22323880531,594170112301,6241006339202044206801,137,2011E1,37315190571,671150112281,69950471052030442061601,057,2012E1,2393171881191,863760112891,9520992313300443331601,057,2013E1,1455323161992,19217401121872,37901663865520445561601,057,2130371,1,41901,624,1,49301,699,1,61801,952,1,82302,379,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,74,95,106,179,293,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,0,0,0,0,0,%,2-705,2-15510,2123-15,6-155-13,9-207-11,64.975.475.4,44.825.928.6,-5.711.710.7,108.486.069.6,68.063.963.3,11,-49,216,17,83,%,-9,-3,0,-66,-107,48.7,42.6,40.5,39.9,40.0,020-1,04-1,00-66,00-41,0091,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,36.837.532.0,32.833.328.4,30.731.333.4,29.730.627.2,29.930.726.4,10,0,-66,-107,-16,%,080,01,220,0-50,0-50,00,34.820.0,6.75.9,7.16.2,11.19.2,16.112.3,-10,-3,-32,-54,-88,%,-482242,-561,1621,113,16-6684,18-85-175,18-70-2,42.57.90.6,12.78.00.0,12.17.50.7,17.115.01.2,23.415.02.0,2011,12,7,21,/,/,/,/,2012,185,/,178,/,2011,11Q3,6.1,57.4%,BOT 15,2010,BOT 20,100,/,50,/,TOT BOT,400,2012,2012 2014,2011 2013,EPS 0.50/0.58/0.67,P/E,18/16/14,25,2012 20 P/E,11,YoY%YoY%,2009562223,20106128.82365.7,2011E1,902211.0577144.7,2012E2,17214.266715.5,2013E2,43912.377416.1,PEPB,%,EPS,EPSROE%,0.190.1956.215.24.86471.9,0.200.2055.214.43.56442.6,0.500.5148.614.13.56182.6,0.580.5949.314.34.05162.2,0.670.6849.314.54.62142.0,2011,11,25,2011,12,7,22,-,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report containedherein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analystabout the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.,000598,1%,/,(,),(1),(2)/20111.,300,20%,6,6,300300,5%-10%,20%5%,2.,6,300300,300300300300,10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China SecuritiesRegulatory Commission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securitiespursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6,and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,