MONTHLY_GEMS_EQUITY_FLOWS：A_SUMMARY_OF_2012_EM_EQUITY_FLOWS-2013-01-30.ppt

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MONTHLY_GEMS_EQUITY_FLOWS：A_SUMMARY_OF_2012_EM_EQUITY_FLOWS-2013-01-30.ppt

,0%,-5%,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abcGlobal Research,Monthly GEMsequity flowsA summary of 2012 EM equity flows,Emerging market equity funds sawsolid inflows in 2012 mainly led by GEMs and Asia exJapan equity funds Allocations to Egypt,Hungary,Colombia and Peru were increasedsignificantly,Yearly flows into EM and DM equities(%of AuM)20%15%10%5%-10%,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Wietse Nijenhuis*StrategistHSBC Bank plc(UK)+44 20 7992 John Lomax*StrategistHSBC Bank plc(UK)+44 20 7992 Ritika Chhabra*Associate,BangaloreView HSBC Global Research at http:/*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsIssuer of report:HSBC Bank plc30 January 2013Disclaimer&DisclosuresThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certificationsin the Disclosure appendix,and with theDisclaimer,which forms part of it,In this monthly note,we analyse the liquidity flow trendsand fund manager positioning around emerging market(EM)equities.Data was obtained from EPFR Global andthe latest data point pertains to December 2012.Throughout 2012,we continued to see investorspreference for EM over DM equities.The following chartshows that EM equities regained the flows they lost in2011,supported by increased global central bankinvention.During December,EM equity funds receivedtheir highest inflows in 26 months.At an EM regional fund group level,analysis of yearly datashows that solid inflows into EM equity funds were mainlyled by GEM funds(with a broad mandate to invest acrossEM)and Asia ex Japan equity funds,which registeredstrong positive flows over the year.On the other hand,EMEA and LatAm equity funds suffered redemptions(chart on page 35).,EM Equities DM EquitiesSource:EPFR Global,HSBCIn terms of single-country dedicated equity funds,2012proved to be good year for China equity funds,whichattracted huge inflows in Q4(top-right chart on page 26).Other countries that received strong investor interest wereColombia,Poland,Thailand and Turkey.However,Egyptequity funds saw the highest level of outflows(in terms ofpercentage of AuM),against the backdrop of ongoingpolitical uncertainty(see page 35).On the other hand,GEMs fund country allocation datashowed that during 2012,investors increased theirexposure(measured in terms of GEM fund weightrelative to the MSCI benchmark weight)significantly inEgypt(45%),Hungary(39%),Colombia(34%)andPeru(21%).On the contrary,the Czech Republic andBrazil faced cuts in their allocations by 23%and 14%,respectively(page 12).,5,19,6,22,33,7,8,23,24,8,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013Contents,abc,Funds flows,3,Egypt,17,Thailand,29,Cross-sectional comparison of Flow of Funds(%of AuM)4Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds(%of AuM)6Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds split by,PolandHungaryCzech Republic,1818,PhilippinesGEM SectorsFinancials Materials,293132,ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),LatAm,21,Energy,Telecoms,32,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds(%of,Brazil,Consumer Discretionary,Consumer Staples,AuM)Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds split byETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),7,MexicoChile,2223,IndustrialsUtilities,Information TechnologyHealth Care,3334,AuM of EM regional equity fundsAuM of EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-,ColombiaPeru,Disclosure appendix,37,ETFsGEM fund positioningGEM Equity Fund Allocations,1113,EM AsiaChinaIndia,252626,Disclaimer,39,Korea,27,CEEMEARussiaSouth AfricaTurkey,15161617,TaiwanMalaysiaIndonesia,272828,2,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,30 January 2013Funds flows3,Indonesia,S.Africa,India,S.Korea,Colombia,Brazil,Thailand,Czech,China,Chile,Russia,Peru,Poland,Philippines,Malaysia,Taiwan,Mexico,Turkey,Egypt,S.Africa,Indonesia,India,S.Korea,Colombia,China,Brazil,Peru,Philippines,Thailand,CzechRep.,Russia,Poland,Chile,Malaysia,Taiwan,Utilities,Mexico,Turkey,Egypt,HealthCare,Industrials,Cons.Disc.,IT,Materials,Cons.Staples,Financials,Telecom,Energy,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013Cross-sectional comparison of Flow of Funds(%of AuM),abc,Flows into dedicated emerging country equity funds over the past month and three-monthaverage(%of AuM)25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%,Flows into dedicated emerging country equity funds over the past month and 12-monthaverage(%of AuM)25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%,Last Month Flow(%of AuM),3 Month Av erage,Last Month Flow(%of AuM),12 Month Av erage,Source:EPFR Global,HSBCFlows into major regional equity funds over the past month and three-month average(%ofAuM)2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%,Source:EPFR Global,HSBCFlows into the EM sector equity funds over the past month and three-month average(%ofAUM)3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%,Asia ex,GEM,All EM,Japan,Lat-Am Western,USA,EMEA,Global,Japan,Europe,Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,Last Month Flow(%of AuM),3 Month Av erage,Last Month Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,3 Month Av erage(RHS),4,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013Monthly Flow(%of AuM),abc,All Equity Funds1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBCAsia ex Japan Equity Funds6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,All Emerging Market Equity Funds6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBCLatin American Equity Funds15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,GEM Equity Funds4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%Source:EPFR Global,HSBCEMEA Equity Funds10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Monthly Flow(%of AuM),5,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-12,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-07,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds(%of AuM),abc,Cumulative flows to the EM and DM equity funds since 200280%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%,Cumulative flows to the EM and DM equity funds since 201016%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%,Emerging Market Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals,Emerging Market Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals,Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),ETFs600%500%400%300%200%100%0%,Non-ETFs50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,Emerging Market Fund Totals ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals ETF,Emerging Market Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals ex-ETF,6,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-12,Jan-12,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-10,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jan-11,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds(%of AuM),abc,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds since 2002120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds since 201030%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),ETFs1000%800%600%400%200%0%-200%,Non-ETFs80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,GEM Fund Totals ETFsLatin America Fund Totals ETFsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ETFsEMEA Fund Totals ETFs,GEM Fund Totals ex-ETFLatin America Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ex-ETFEMEA Fund Totals ex-ETF,7,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-12,Jan-12,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-10,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jan-11,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013AuM of EM regional equity fundsAssets under management of EM regional equity funds since 2002600 USD bn5004003002001000,Assets under management of EM regional equity funds since 2010600 USD bn5004003002001000,abc,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,AuM of EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs,ETFs160 USD bn140120100806040200,Non-ETFs450 USD bn400350300250200150100500,GEM Fund Totals ETFsLatin America Fund Totals ETFsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ETFsEMEA Fund Totals ETFs,GEM Fund Totals ex-ETFLatin America Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ex-ETFEMEA Fund Totals ex-ETF,8,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013Thematic map showing 2012 flows(%of AuM)into the dedicated country equity fundsColour Legend,abc,-45%,-45.0%to-30.0%,-30.0%to-15.0%,-15.0%to 0.0%,0.0%to 15.0%,15.0%to 30.0%,30.0%to 45.0%,45.0%,Source:EPFR Global,HSBC9,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,30 January 2013This page has been left intentionally blank10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,30 January 2013GEM fund positioning CEEMEA LatAm EM Asia GEM Sectors11,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013GEM fund manager positioning in the GEM countries,abc,Country,Fund manager wt.rel.tobenchmark,1-month change in relative weight,3-month change in relative weight,6-month change in relative weight 12-month change in relative weight,BrazilChileChinaColombiaCzech RepublicEgyptHungaryIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaMexicoPeruPhilippinesPolandRussiaSouth AfricaSouth KoreaTaiwanThailandTurkey,0.950.610.840.500.831.311.531.150.950.610.971.171.180.641.160.830.830.691.341.53,-3%1%2%-4%-9%11%30%2%-2%3%-1%11%6%2%-3%-1%-1%-2%-3%0%,-6%-1%0%-15%-11%72%47%6%-4%-4%3%18%0%6%-2%-1%-4%-2%-2%-4%,-6%11%-6%7%5%93%30%8%6%3%7%20%12%7%3%-5%-4%-6%-3%1%,-14%-6%-4%34%-23%45%39%16%-7%-1%15%21%16%13%12%-9%-4%-5%-7%-5%,Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBCTable explained:Benchmark weight represents the current weight of that particular country in the MSCI Emerging market index.GEM Fund Manger weight represents the current allocation in the GEM equity funds.Fund Manager positioning relative to benchmark=GEM Fund Manager weight/Benchmark weight.The fourcolumns that follow to the right showing the change in relative weights are calculated using the changes in C over the respective time frames.Working example:Any relative weight below 1 signifies an underweight,above 1 an overweight and an exact 1 is neutral.2%in the 1 month change column signifies that the relative weight of Poland was increased to the current level of 0.64 from 0.625 over the last month.Therefore,the fund managers have decreased theirunderweight position in Poland by 2%during December 2012.GEM Fund manager positioning in the GEMs sectors,Country,Fund manager wt.rel.tobenchmark,1-month change in relative weight,3-month change in relative weight,6-month change in relative weight 12-month change in relative weight,EnergyMaterialsIndustrialsConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesHealth CareFinancialsInformation TechnologyTelecom ServicesUtilities,0.860.881.001.361.131.660.960.960.820.64,-1%2%2%3%-2%-3%0%-1%0%3%,-4%2%4%4%0%12%-2%-3%-2%11%,-6%8%0%3%10%13%-1%-7%-3%14%,-4%4%4%2%8%18%-2%-2%-10%-5%,Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBC12,SouthKorea,SouthAfrica,Indonesia,India,Peru,China,Russia,Chile,Colombia,Thailand,Poland,Brazil,Philippines,Hungary,Egypt,CzechRepublic,Malaysia,Taiwan,Mexico,Turkey,SouthAfrica,OtherLat-Am,SouthKorea,India,Indonesia,China,Brazil,Russia,Thailand,Poland,GCC,Egypt,CzechRepublic,Hungary,Philippines,Malaysia,Taiwan,Mexico,Turkey,Discretionary,Technology,HealthCare,Information,Consumer,Industrials,Materials,Financials,Telecom,Consumer,Services,Energy,Staples,Utilities,Mar-96,Sep-96,Mar-97,Sep-97,Mar-98,Sep-98,Mar-99,Sep-99,Mar-00,Sep-00,Mar-01,Sep-01,Mar-02,Sep-02,Mar-03,Sep-03,Mar-04,Sep-04,Mar-05,Sep-05,Mar-06,Sep-06,Mar-07,Sep-07,Mar-08,Sep-08,Mar-09,Sep-09,Mar-10,Sep-10,Mar-11,Sep-11,Mar-12,Sep-12,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013GEM Equity Fund AllocationsCountry weights in GEM equity funds20%15%10%5%0%,HSBC country weightings21%18%15%12%9%6%3%0%,abc,Fund Manager Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),HSBC Recommended Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBCSector weights in GEM equity funds30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%,Source:MSCI,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBCDispersion*in country allocation of the GEM equity funds a measure of country rotation0.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0,Fund Manager Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),GEM Equity Funds Allocation Dispersion,LT.Av erage(all history),*dispersion is calculated as the sum of squared deviations of the current weight of all countries from their three month averages,Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBC,Source:EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBC,13,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,30 January 2013This page has been left intentionally blank14,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,30 January 2013CEEMEA15,Jun-04,Jun-05,Jun-06,Jun-07,Jun-08,Jun-09,Jun-10,Jun-11,Jun-12,OW,Nov-10,Dec-12,Dec-12,Feb-12,Jan-10,Jun-10,Sep-11,Apr-11,Jul-12,Jul-12,UW,N,OW,Jun-04,Jun-05,Jun-06,Jun-07,Jun-08,Jun-09,Jun-10,Jun-11,Jun-12,Nov-10,Feb-12,Jan-10,Jun-10,Sep-11,Apr-11,UW,N,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets30 January 2013RussiaActive weight in GEM equity funds2.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5Activ e w eight in GEM Equity Funds(ppt)Activ e w eight in GEM Equity Funds rel.to av g.since Jun 2004(ppt)Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBCSouth AfricaActive weight in GEM equity funds2.01.00.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0Activ e w eight in GEM Equity Funds(ppt)Activ e w eight in GEM Equity Funds rel.to av g.since Jun 2004(ppt)Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBC,Cumulative flows into single-country dedicated equity funds since 20109,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000Cumulativ e Flow into Russia equity funds(USD mn)Source:EPFR Global,HSBCCumulative flows into single-country dedicated equity funds since 20102001000-100-200-300-400-500Cumulativ e Flow into South Africa equity funds(USD mn)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,abc16,OW,Jun-04,J

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