移动通信行业分析报告.ppt

Fragmentation of Mobile CarriersValue Chain will change the role of,Operators in Mobile Multimedia,Communications,Momuc,October 6-8,2003 Munich,Dr.Arnulf Heuermann,Partner,Member of,1.,2.,3.,4.,Content,Strategic TrendsThe end of the classical Value ChainEvolution along the Value Chain LayersCore Business and Roles of Future Players,5.,Summary,Page 2,1.,1.1,1.2,1.5,Contents,Strategic TrendsSize and Market Consolidation in a 2G WorldSize and Market Consolidation:Example Asia,1.31.41.6,Platform ConvergenceNGN Service OpportunitiesStrategic Dilemma:Demand driven Differentiation vs.Cost driven StandardizatiSummary,Member ofPage 3,CountryAverageEBITDAMargin(%),1.,1.1,50%,55%,40%,35%,30%,Strategic TrendsSize and Market Consolidation in a 2G World,In a 2G world only large operators are profitable.In a saturated market smaller,operators are now forced to leave the market or to grow through strategic,decisions like internationalization,M&A or switching to new technologies.,45%25%20%,Market Power and Profit go Hand in Hand,2G networks and services(90%telephony)are notseparated.Large Economies ofScale of the mobile accessnetworks lead to decreasingmarginal and average cost persubscriber.All successful MNOwere therefore forced to followcost leadership strategy,inparticular trying to maximizemarket share.,15%35%,45%,55%,65%,75%,85%,95%,But even in the growth phaseonly operators with high market,Combined Market Share of Top Two Mobile Players(%),share(usually 1st and 2ndmarket player)were profitable,Member ofPage 4,NumberofMobileOperators,1.,1.2,1,2,6,4,2,Strategic TrendsSize and Market Consolidation:Example Asia,We expect two major consolidation movements:,In-country consolidation up to a threshold of 4 profitable MNOs andacquisition of operators in Growth Markets.16,1412,India,Subscriber DrivenGrowth Markets,10,MaturingMobile Markets,1,8,Indonesia,2,Sri LankaVietnam,ThailandMalaysiaPhilippines,Japan,Hong KongAustraliaSingapore,Taiwan,Critical Threshold,0,China,New Zealand,Korea,0%,20%,40%,60%,80%,100%,120%,Mobile Penetration Rate(%,year end 2002),Sources:EMC-Database,2003,Detecon ResearchPage 5,Member of,1.,Strategic Trends,1.3,Platform Convergence,TelCos are aiming on Next Generation Networks in order to bring down,operating costs by ceating a single platform serving most of their technical,requirements.,MarginDeclinesShareholderDemands,CostPressure,Platform strategyaccording tochanged marketand technologyconditions,TechnologyOpportunities,“Everythingover IP”Unifiedsignalling,PSTNPlatform,MobilePlatform,IPPlatform,ATMPlatform,Platform MigrationNetCo platformServicesTransportMember ofPage 6,Service,Network,1.,Strategic Trends,1.4,NGN Service Opportunities,In a 3G World Differentiation and Innovation Strategies on the Service Level w,become a strategic opportunity;cheap introduction of new services possible.,VPN,Commerce,MMS,Service Layer Voice,WAP,Portal,Mail,Middleware,Access Network2G,CircuitSwitchedCS,PackedSwitchedCS,HSS MM-CSControl LayerCSCF,IP-CS,Access NetworkWLL,2.5G,W-LAN,3G,GW,Network Layer,GW,Satellite,Physical and Transport LayerMember ofPage 7,ROI,1.,1.5,TP,CA,NCP,+,0-,-,Strategic TrendsStrategic Dilemma:Demand driven Differentiation vs.Cost driven Standardization,In Future Integrated Network and Service Operators will have to focus on Cost,Leadership and Differentiation Strategies.,Uniqueness perceivedby the customer,Low cost position,MNOs have to concentrate on a costleadership strategy for the network,Service Innovation&DifferentiationBrandSales,Overall Cost LeadershipEfficient scale facilitiesCost reduction fromexperience,specific part of the value chain,and on ainnovation and differentiation strategy forthe service provisioning part of the valuechain.In future ServCos will have the,Products,Tight cost and,opportunity of a Differentiation and,Customer Care,overhead control,Innovation Strategy.,Network Operations,Service Provisioning,ServiceProvicer?,T-MobileUK,T-MobileGermany,ACC-ESSCost Leadership Area,CCP C&A OS DeviceDifferentiation Area,T-Mobile,NL,Market Share,TP=Transport CCP=Customer Centric ProcesCA=Communication Applications C&A=Content&ApplicationsNCP=Network Centric Processes OS=Operating System,Member ofPage 8,1.,Worldwide,Strategic Trends,1.6,Summary,Technical,social,political and economic trends will dramatically the change o,traditional mobile value chains and push the emergence of new entrants.,Regulation,Deregulation,Industry Politics,ScientificDevelopmentsApplicationsInfrastructureDevicesMobilizationRationalOverchoiceIndividualizationAgingSocieties,StandardizationMobileMarketsBusiness ModelsValue ChainsNew EntrantsMarkets,New Value ChainsNew Entrants,Member ofPage 9,2.,2.1,2.3,2.4,Contents,The end of the classical Value ChainFragmentation of the Value Chain,2.2,Frontiers are fading,Different layers of the value chain require a focussed strategic positioningCross-Value Chain alliancesMember ofPage 10,2.,2.1,The end of the classical Value ChainFragmentation of the Value Chain,New players will take over certain parts of the mobile value chain.This will lea,to increased competition with each single part of the value chain.,Vertically integrated mobile operator,Vertical integration used to be a well working business model for mobile playersIt helped building high market entry barriers for new players,Basic,Customer,Value-,CRM/PoS,Networks,Transport,Access,Applica-,Care/,added,Content,Devices,Manage,tions,Billing,Services,ment,Supplier,Network Operator,Service ProviderResellerRetailerThe importance of reaching competitive advantages over the whole value chain will decline,Horizontal Strategies become more and more suitable alternativesCompetition will increase on each single part of the value chain.Mobile operators must become“best-in-class”with each element of the mobile value chainMember ofPage 11,BusinessLayerValueChain,2.,The end of the classical Value Chain,2.2,Frontiers are fading,The frontiers between different positions on the value chain are fading;new,competitors start to form:,CRM/PoS-Management,Operator/Carrier,Devices,Device Manufacturer,ContentValue-addedServicesCustomerCare/BillingBasicApplications,Media CompanysBSS/OSS Supplier,IT-Service Provider,Content/ApplicationPlatforms&Provider,SK Telecomlaunches full scalemobile ASP Busines(NATE ASP),2002.,AccessTransportNetworks,Telco Supplier,Operator/Carrier,Cisco VoIP-Devices,Legend:future Migration,Plan,BuildComponents/Resources,Run,Member ofPage 12,BusinessLayerValueChain,2.,2.3,The end of the classical Value ChainDifferent layers of the value chain require a focussed strategic positioning,Mobile operators will come under pressure by new service providers and the,backward and forward integration of manufacturers and Content&Application,Providers,CRM/PoS-Management,Operator/Carrier,Devices,Device Manufacturer,SalesCo,ContentValue-addedServicesCustomerCare/BillingBasicApplicationsAccessTransportNetworks,Media CompaniesBSS/OSS Supplier,IT-Service ProviderTelco Supplier,Content/ApplicationPlatforms&ProviderOperator/Carrier,ServCoNetCo,Plan,Build,Run,Components/ResourcesMember ofPage 13,2.,2.4,UK,The end of the classical Value ChainCross-Value Chain alliances,Some examples for new constellations along the value chain:,Broadcasting Companies+Access,GermanyGermanyIsrael,Providers=TV-based Internet access ande-tailingContent Providers+Network Carriers=Distributed Content delivery and HostingMobile Operators+Financial Institutions+Software Firms=Mobile e-PaymentsEnergy Companies+xSPs=PowerlineInternet Access,Member ofPage 14,3.,3.2,3.3,3.4,3.5,Contents,Evolution along the Value Chain Layers,3.1,SalesCo,ServCo,NetCo,Vertically or horizontally structured(Mobile)CarriersBT and Nordic Countries are Trend SettersMajor Functions of SalesCo,ServCo,NetCoStrategic Threats for Mobile SalesCo,ServCo,NetCoMember ofPage 15,Convergence,3.,Evolution along the Value Chain Layers,3.1,SalesCo,ServCo,NetCo,Telcos will be forced to increasingly offer integrated products and services.,NetCos,ServCos and SalesCos will start to form.,Convergence,Actions,Integrated,Data/Voice,Data/Voice,Migration,services,Convergence(fixed),Data NetworksData,Convergence(mobile),Separate,Bundleservices,of services,servicesTime,SalesCo.,Offerings,Fixed NetworksVoice,Mobile NetworksVoice,ServCo.,Products,Fixed-Mobile Convergence,NetCo.,Production,Member ofPage 16,Sales,Services,Network,3.,3.2,Evolution along the Value Chain LayersVertically or horizontally structured(Mobile)Carriers,In 2010 the carrier will have a new structure to overcome the challenges of innovation,convergence and profitability.Especially vertically integrated carrier will have to chang,Vertically integrated carriere.g.Deutsche Telekom AG,Horizontally integrated carrierFuture carrier layout,SalesServiceNetwork,SalesServiceNetwork,SalesServiceNetwork,SalesServiceNetwork,ResidentialIP VPNFixed,SMEWLANMobile,MNUContentInternet,Those restructurings are expected to deliver large potentials for increasedprofitability and competitiveness against Value Chain SpecialistsMember ofPage 17,Sales,Sales,Services,Services,Network,Network,3.,3.3,Evolution along the Value Chain LayersBT and Nordic Countries are Trend Setters,British Telecom already started the transformation towards a SalesCo/ServCo/NetCo,organisation.Sonera already implemented a three-way split prior to the merger with Te,British Telecom GroupBT Retail,Sonera/Telia MergerSales&Marketing,BTIgnite,BTExact,BTopenworld,Products&Services,Fixed,BT Wholesale,IP,Production&Networks,Already in 2003 BT ended a year long trans-formation process and set up four main linesof business.,small domestic markets and little scale forcesrestructuring and final stimulated the merger,Expected EBITDA increase sums up to 3%in2003,Telia already sold its network construction,operations&maintenance to Flextronic,Market Cap could rise up to 90%,Current structure has been set up by Sonera,Member ofPage 18,3.,3.4,Evolution along the Value Chain LayersMajor Functions of SalesCo,ServCo,NetCo,In search of excellence:Through layered structures,customer needs can be,fulfilled more efficiently,cost can be reduced.,Create scope,Segmen-tation,SalesCo.Demand Service,Understand customer needs&lifestylesCreate brandEnsure quality,flexibility andresponse time,Management,Provisioning,Create innovative products/bundles,ServiceBundling,ServCo.Specification,Service,Ensure product functionalityControl lifecycle managementManage linkages to sales&production,Management,Provisioning,Lean production,Wholesale,NetCo.,Economies of scaleSLA and defined QoS,Cost&operational efficienciesMember ofPage 19,SetupOperationsupportsystem,Setupprofitmarginreporting,EnhanceCRM,Innovationmanagement,TransferPrices,3.,3.5,Evolution along the Value Chain LayersStrategic Threats for Mobile SalesCo,ServCo,NetCo,Elaborate strategic answers to all value chain element actions required for the,Future Mobile Broadband Markets and prepare Implementation Strategies.,Cross valuechain actions,Layered value chain,Value chain element actions,Contract Management,PartneringReduce churn through better custome,SalesServicesNetwork,servicesCreate Needs&Lifestyle oriented braPrepare for Media,IT,TK ConvergencShape product portfolio in line withmarket needsDemand focused innovation mgmt.Converged offerings,PartneringAsset&bandwidth managementCarrier alliances&outsourcingReduce OPEX through automated,processesDefine transfer to NGNMember ofPage 20,4.,4.1,4.2,4.3,4.4,Contents,Core Business and Roles of Future PlayersNetwork Layer:Specialist in WholesaleService Layer:Diversification as a strategic optionService and Sales Layer:Differentiation and concentration on profitable SegmeService and Sales Layer:Intelligent Market SegmentationMember ofPage 21,4.,4.1,Core Business and Roles of Future PlayersNetwork Layer:Specialist in Wholesale,The NetCo will have to focus on internal and external wholesale business and,should specialize on all related services.Future organization has to reflect thi,Wholesale Products,Voice Services,Data Service,Call Origination,Peering,IP transit,Call Termination,Transit,IC link,VoIP,Internationalcapacities,Free phone,ISP dialing,Antenna and,International calls(inter-)nationalRoaming,Calls toVAS,Messaging,Collocation,Tower sharingLeased lines,Content,Node Bsharing,TypicalBottleneckServices,EnquiryservicesCollection,Services ClearinghouseThird party billing,Infrastructure sharin,Typical,CommercialServices,Enabling Services,Member ofPage 22,4.,4.2,Core Business and Roles of Future PlayersService Layer:Diversification as a strategic option,Only large MNOs can maintain their core business Provider of wireless,transport services“;small ones need to evolve to Integrated Service,Providers“.,MobileValueChain,Transport,Access&Comm.Connectivity Applications,NCP(billing,),CCP(customercare,),Content&Applications,OperationSystem,Device,Positioningof MNO,Old Core business,New revenues,Global Mobile Data Revenues 2006:USD 85 billion,Communications64,7%,Mobile Enterprise18%,MEA 3,4%,North America 22,9%,M-Commerce 1,3%Entertainment 4,3%,Asia-Pacific34,6%,LatinAmerica 4,3%,Information 11,6%b2c,b2b,CEE 3,4%,Western Europe31,3%,CommunicationsSMS,InformationYellow Pages,EntertainmentGames,M-CommerceBookings,Mobile EnterpriseInternal Processes,CEE.Central&Eastern EuropeMEAMiddle East&Africa,MMS,News,Music,Payments,mCRM,e-Mail,Sports,Pictures,Banking,mSCM,Source:Ovum 2003,Detecon Resea,Weather,Ring tones,Brokerage,Member of,Page 23,4.,4.3,Todays Focus,Long list,Core Business and Roles of Future PlayersService and Sales Layer:Differentiation and concentration on profitable Segments,Differentiation is a strategic option.Advanced marketing skills and technique,are pre-requisite for this approach.,Hybrid Market Segmentation,Combination of usage based and life style segmentation,Segmenting the market on the product and branding layer,differently and optimizing returnon marketing,Customer Value Oriented Marketing,Customer portfolio strategy based on value oriented customer,segmentation and propensity to churn,Optimized marketing by higher efficiency through targeted,marketing measures and reduced marketing costs,Product Portfolio Management,Two core strategies of streamlining your portfolioElimination funnel Modularisation,Product portfolio streamlining to improve internal,transparency and gain sustainable competitive advantage,Short List,Page 24,Fast cyclecost cutting,Member of,Mid-term efficiencysales and IT-system,Growthofsegment,4.,4.4,1,2,3,4,kids,Core Business and Roles of Future PlayersService and Sales Layer:Intelligent Market Segmentation,Hybrid segmentation approaches combining two or more segmentation,concepts are approaches to differentiate the Service Providers products,successfully from those of the competitors.,UnidimensionalSegmentation,MultidimensionalSegmentation,SegmentDescription,SegmentValuation,Customer segmentation Hybrid customer segmentation In-detail description of,Identification of portion,by different segmentation by consolidating