CompetitiveLandscapemoto.ppt

Competitive LandscapeWork Stream 1FT Motorola Strategic Partnership,Charles M.H.NobletSeamless MobilityMotorola NetworksUpdated:01/06/2005,2,Contributors,MotorolaMaritza MoralesUma Murty,Chand GundechaSteve Moore,Amanda BlameyFT OrangeThomas Boutreux,Serhii Heraschenko,3,Notes,Data collected up to April/May 2005Sources/Information from FT Orange,Motorola,and Analysis ReportDeliverables available100 slides pack Competitive Landscape Analysis25 slides pack Executive Summary,This symbol indicates“Hot Topic”,4,Agenda,IntroductionAnalysis Work FlowPart I:Telecommunication LandscapePart II:Seamless Mobility ConceptPart III:Evolution Enabling TechnologiesPart IV:Seamless Mobility:Operators InitiativesPart V:AnalysisConclusionWhats Next?,5,Analysis Workflow(1/2),Overview of the Competitive Landscape AnalysisPart I,II,III.Enabling Environment:provides a description of the environment,from both a market and technology perspective.What are the enabling factors which are driving the network convergence,seamless mobility.Part IV.Operators Initiatives:provides a summary of the players in todays and tomorrows convergence.Part V.Analysis:based on all,previous sections,an analysis is conducted leading to learning lessons,recommendations,views on Market evolution.,6,Analysis Workflow(2/2),Telecommunications Landscape,Technologies RoadmapManufacturers(Networks/Handsets),Analysis,Service InitiativesOperators/Others,Value PropositionGo-to MarketFinancialsTime Frame,Residential,Enterprise,2 years View,Operators Initiatives,Part I,Part II,Part III,Part IV,Seamless Mobility Concept,Part V,Enabling Environment,Analysis,Offer,Criteria,Market,Whats Next?,Market,Part ITelecommunications Landscape,Market Growth Services&Applications Network Convergence Fixed-to-Mobile Substitution,8,Introduction,This section presents an analysis of the telecommunication market,cellular,Internet.This section reviews:New Access Technologies Core Network EvolutionHandset EvolutionNew Protocols,or technologies breakthrough The strongest playersObjective:understanding why we are working on Seamless Mobility!Why there is a move towards network convergence,seamless mobility.,9,Changing Landscape,WLAN access is prevalent Strong broadband and home networking growth projected VoIP communications is gaining momentum End-users are demanding service ubiquity Service Providers are competing for consumer share of wallet Traditional wireline usage is dropping,10,ConvergenceDrivers and barriers,Source:visiogain,Bluephone Report,11,European Broadband GrowthBroadband is Key enabler for SM,Growth Forecast:Europe Broadband Market(000s Of Lines,%Households),Broadband adoption is reaching critical massBroadband transforms the Internet users experience with faster access and always-on capability.Multiple concurrent services,Source:ABI Research,Broadband Wireless:Last Mile Solutions,1Q 2004,12,WLAN AdoptionNatural Expansion of Internet Broadband,Source:Gartner Dataquest per UBS Investment Research,January 2004,WLAN adoption is rapidly gaining momentum in the residential/consumer market segment.,Global WLAN Home Gateway Spend:2001 07(US$Millions),US$Millions,%of notebook PCs shipped with WLAN,2003,Source:In-StatEmbedded-WLAN Notebook PCs:%of total sales,55%,13,WLAN PenetrationBusiness WLAN Coverage,Source for US:InfoTech,press search,OBS estimationsSource for Europe:IDC,industry experts,OBS estimations,%of companies that have implemented at least one WLAN solution,%of employees with WLAN accessibility at their work position,Source:Jupiter Research,2003,Which of the following are major barriers to your companys deployment of WLANs(please select up to 3 barriers only(n=475)?,Barriers to WLAN deployments,Enterprise Market is different from ConsumerSlow Take-up which can jeopardize UMA,14,European Cellular GrowthPeople want mobility,Europe Middle East And Africa(EMEA)Cumulative Cellular Subscribers,Source:EMC October 18,2004,Note:includes iDEN,9.1%CAGR,15,Organic&Displacement GrowthBroadband plays a key role,Broadband displaces traditional media,Fixed broadband market soars,they are replacing other forms of communication media,Millions of households,Asia-Pacific,Latin America,North America,W Europe,Percentage of Media Time,Television,Radio,Newspaper,Internet,Not only are the Wireless and Broadband markets growing,Source:Arbitron(2003),Source:eMarketer(2003),64%CAGR,16,Handset MarketA view from Japan,Subscriber Forecast,Handset Forecast,Source:Motorola Japan strategy office,Steady 3G Market Growth Upcoming Wireless Broadband Market,17,Fixed-to-Mobile SubstitutionHow to maintain the use of copper?,Source:visiongain,Bluephone Project,2005,Fixed line business is dropping!,18,CONVERGENCE DATAPOINTS,Around 5%of Europeans only have a mobile phone at home and dont use a fixed phone.A further 20%are predicted to follow suit.(Forresters TechStrategy Report,Dec 03),Fixed telephony revenues are in decline,by rates between 2 and 10%over the past year,due to falling prices and lost traffic and lines.(Forresters TechStrategy Report,Dec 03),It is predicted that due to the complexity,scale and capital requirements it will take 10 to 15 years for wireline operators to develop a fully converged next-generation network.(Forresters TechStrategy Report,Dec 03),It is estimated that moving to a common network,supplier,product development and operational support will bring joint wireline and wireless operators savings of 15%to 20%and OPEX savings of around 30%.(Forresters TechStrategy Report,Dec 03),Forrester believe that the right convergence strategies could lower the mobile-only share of the population in 2008 to 33%.(Forresters TechStrategy Report,Dec 03),Over 30%of mobile use is now within the home and office.(Yankee Group),Half of mobile subscribers would like to use their mobile as their main phone,but are prevented by cost and coverage concerns.(Consumer Reports),Market AnalysisNetwork Convergence,19,Market AnalysisNetwork Convergence,Seamless MobilityServicesDevicesNetwork,Seamless MobilityWiFi/Cellular/ADSL,Growth in Cellular,Growth in HotSpot/WiFiBut slow in Enterprise,Growth in Broadband,Fixed-Mobile Substitution,Organic Displacement,Enterprise,Residential,20,ConvergenceWireless meet Wired,Growth in WiFi Emergence of WiMAX 3G Cellular Presence,ADSL Growth in Residential Enterprise Intranet,Mobility and Ubiquitous ServicesDemand,21,ConvergenceFixed-to-Mobile Convergence,The Fixed-Mobile Convergence(FMC)Alliance to accelerate the development of fixed-mobile convergence products and services.It is anticipated that the alliance will encourage other major operators around the world to drive the development of convergence services.The founder members are BT,Brasil Telecom,Korea Telecom,NTT Com,Rogers Wireless and Swisscom.BT is the first chair of the alliance,which will rotate every 12 months,22,Convergence Voice IP&WiFi-Is there a case?,Data ServicesUpstart carriers called WiFi ISPs or WISP-2,000 WiFi ISPs in the US!72,000 Hotspots by year 2007 in the US(Gartner).Data services convergence WiFi/Cellular already happeningNext logical step is the introduction of Voice ServicesVoice Services(what is needed?)Handset availabilityQoS:priority treatment on voice/dataConnectivity of WiFi and Cellular networks(MSC SIP-enabled Gateway)Mobility ManagementFor benefits see notes page,23,IP Packet based applications are replacing traditional CS-based application The internet is present in Residential and Enterprise Mobility is needed in Residential and Enterprise Growth of Broadband and WiFi users Convergence of SIP,WiFi and Voice technology Opportunities to use of WiFi access points/PAN But Low penetration in the Enterprise!Security&Mobility have to be addressed Opportunities to use the IP network as the unique Transport layer Opportunities to use multiple access networks from the same device,ConclusionConverging Networks&Services,Part IISeamless Mobility Concept,Concept Different Perceptions How is it happening?The players,25,Introduction,This section presents the Seamless Mobility concept as it is understood by both FT Orange and MotorolaThis section reviews:The conceptHow it will work?The Players;Network Vendors,Operators,ISP,DevicesObjective:understanding what seamless mobility is,and what it will provide to users.See also WS1.a8 on Use Cases.,26,Seamless MobilityMotorola Concept,“Seamless mobility will let you do everything everywhere.People want to stay connected to the ones they love,the information they need and the gadgets that keep their lives humming.Peoples connections dont end at a doorway;they need smooth transitions from home to car to office and everywhere in between.Ed Zander,27,Seamless Mobility Marketing Requirements,Best NetworkSeveral access networksHandover between access networksAutomatic selection of access networkHandover between the Access Points of a WLAN network,Single Customer ExperienceSingle handsetSingle numberSingle authenticationSingle set of services from the operatorSingle contact book,SecurityIntegration of external equipmentsNetwork identification and customer localization,28,Best NetworkSeveral access networksHold sessions through different access networksHandover between access networksHandover with session continuityAutomatic selection of access network“Best”network is automatically selected and usedHandover between the Access Points of a WLAN networkHandover between the different APs of the same WLAN network,Single Customer ExperienceSingle handsetWhatever access networkSingle numberSame number used to be called/reached or that is transmitted(CLI)Single authenticationAutomatic transfer of identity during handoverSingle set of services from the operatorSame services available with same interfaces whatever access networkSingle contact bookWhatever access network,Seamless Mobility Marketing Requirements(more details),SecurityNo reduction of security level for customers data networkSecurity level clearly demonstrated to customersIntegration of external equipmentsOperator can cooperate and use 3rd partys equipment,eg private WLAN coverage or private mobility management systemNetwork identification and customer localization,29,SM Hype-MessagingEnabling Technologies&Devices-Messaging,30,SM Hype-MessagingEnabling Technologies&Devices-Messaging,“Ericsson Mobility World”,Filling the Mobile Internet with irresistible content.End-to-end provider and integrator,Managed Services,31,The PlayersEnabling Technologies&Devices Not complete,32,WIFI,Cellular,WIFI,WIFI,WIFI,WIFI,SERVICE CONVERGENCE,802.16,Seamless Mobility User PerspectiveA Day in Life of One Device,Part IIITechnology Roadmap,Core&RAN Network Evolution Handset Evolution Technological Development Competitive Landscape,34,Introduction,This section presents the under laying technologies which are driving Seamless MobilityThis section reviews:New Access Technologies Core Network EvolutionHandset EvolutionNew Protocols,or technologies breakthrough The strongest playersObjective:understanding how seamless mobility is made technically possible,and how it will evolve,35,Enabling TechnologiesThe components,Enterprise Services,Wireless BroadbandWiMax/WLAN,Bluetooth,NetworkManagement-EMS,Site Routers,Customer Backhaul Transmission,SIP-Based Softswitch-IP Multimedia Sub-systemMedia Gateways,Wireless Gateways,Network Controller(UNC),ProvisioningAAA,Charging&Billing,Central Routers,CellularGSM/CDMA/UMTS,Wired Data/Voice,Laptop PCsWiFi/WiMax,PDAsWiFi/BT,BluetoothDevices,Customer care,Devices formerly known as mobile phonesWiFi/Bluetooth/GSM/UMTS/CDMA,Access Network,Transport,Management,Applications,End-User,Every box provides a piece of enabling technology for Seamless Mobility,36,Voice Core,Voice Core,Packet Core,Time,802.11b,802.11a/g,802.16,802.20,802.11b,802.11a/g,802.16,802.20,xDSL,DVB,DOCSIS,Network EvolutionAccess&Transport IP Convergence,37,Enabling TechnologiesNew Concepts enabling Seamless Mobility,VoIP:Voice Over IPSIP:Session Internet ProtocolBluetooth/WiFi/Wimax:Wireless Access TechnologiesIMS:IP Multimedia Sub-systemCTP:Cordless Telephony ProfileUMA:Unlicensed Mobile Architecture,There is a strong emphasis on SIP/WiFi solutions for providing Voice IP services in WiFi environment,38,Enabling TechnologiesVoIP,VoIP as an enabler of convergenceVoIP and applications convergenceVoIP enables new entrants to compete aggressivelyVoIP will help fixed telcos fight against substitution,Skype Technologies ties Wi-Fi and free VoIP callsSkype Technologies has introduced free mobile-PDA software called PocketSkype that lets users of Microsoft PocketPC-based handhelds connect to Wi-Fi access points and make free VoIP calls to other PocketSkype users.The current version is beta,indicating that it will be updated later.The PDA version has the same core features as the established desktop version,including instant messaging,directory access,contact lists,and free worldwide calling.Skype reckon that the market for the product will develop slowly as more PDAs become Wi-Fi enabled,and are interested in the Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset market.,Navini Networks to sell Net2Phone service In the first deal of its kind,a broadband equipment maker,Navini Networks,will begin selling Net2Phones VoIP technology to its broadband provider customers in the next three months.It is predicted that broadband providers will begin selling VoIP phone services by EO2004.,News,News,39,5 Steps Towards VoIP/WLAN Convergence,Handset AvailabilityStandardsCoverage vs.CapacityQoSRoaming,40,Enabling TechnologiesSIP(Session Internet Protocol),BridgePorts Networks Convergence Gateway BridgePort Networks has announced that it has completed the GSM testing of its NomadicONE solution,claimed to be the worlds first Networks Convergence Gateway(NCG).The NCG has now been successfully tested on both CDMA and GSM mobile networks.Based on an open systems architecture,NomadicONE allows a variety of IP-based devices,such as Session Initiation Protocol(SIP)phones for residential wireline replacement and forthcoming dual-mode mobile and Wi-Fi handsets for subscribers,to receive mobile services over IP networks.,What is SIP?Protocol to provide Real-time services on IP SIP is end-to-end,client-server session signalling protocol SIPs primarily provides presence and mobility Protocol primitives:Session setup,termination,changes,SIP Features SIP is not limited to Internet telephony SIP messages can convey arbitrary signalling payload:session description,instant messages,JPEGs Suitable for applications having a notion of session distributed virtual reality systems,Network games,video conferencing,etc.Applications may leverage SIP infrastructure(Call Processing,User Location,Authentication)Instant Messaging and Presence,News,41,Enabling TechnologiesBluetooth/WiFi,Single 802.11 chips ideal for mobile phonesAtheros Communications has started shipping what it claims is the first 802/11g single chip on the market.Single-chip systems help reduce the power consumption of 802.11 systems and are crucial for batt