CHINAHEALTHCARE：CHINAEDGEP109：MONTHLYDATATRACKERJANUARY0131.ppt

Buy,Date,2012,2012,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaHealth CareHealth Care,IndustryChina Healthcare,Date30 January 2013Industry UpdateJack Hu,Ph.D,China Edge P109:Monthly datatracker,January 2013Deutsche Bank monthly data tracker,January 2013Recent data suggest 1)government healthcare spending decreased 12%YoY inDecember;2)patient monitor and ultrasound exports from Shenzhen customsgrew 26%YoY in December;3)January 6-APA and 7-ACA prices were slightlylower than those in December;and 4)TCM raw material prices remain mixed.We advise investors to exercise caution when interpreting these data points.Government HC spending growth:13%YoY in 2012,the lowest since 2008Government healthcare spending was RMB117.2bn in December,representing-12%YoY and 91%MoM growth,the lowest in the last 12 months.Totalgovernment HC spending was RMB719.9bn in 2012,representing only 13%YoY growth.The significant growth deceleration supports our view thatreimbursement coverage expansion will not be the primary growth driver forthe sector anymore,while salary inflation is likely to take over.,Research Analyst(+852)2203 Companies FeaturedSihuan Pharmaceutical(0460.HK),HKD3.442011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)20.3 14.7 12.6EV/EBITDA(x)11.9 8.1 6.7Price/book(x)1.7 1.9 1.7Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Hold(2607.HK),HKD15.282010A 2011E 2012EP/E(x)17.4 16.2EV/EBITDA(x)8.3 5.6Price/book(x)0.0 1.3 1.3,Shenzhen exports:13%growth in 4Q12 vs.0%in 3Q12;recovery underwayExports of patient monitors and ultrasounds from Shenzhen customs recorded26%YoY and 51%MoM growth in December 2012,compared with3%/11%/0%YoY increases in September/October/November 2012,respectively.For 4Q12,shipments increased 13%YoY.This new data pointsuggests a modest rebound,which could be positive for Mindray in 1Q13,asshipment data is a leading indicator of international sales.,The United Laboratories(3933.HK),HKD3.71P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),Buy2011A 2012E 2013E121.2 19.3 15.419.6 8.3 7.11.1 0.9 1.0,6-APA and 7-ACA prices were slighter lower than last monthAs of January 2013,the 6-APA price was RMB180/kg and 7-ACA price wasRMB510/kg,both slightly lower than the previous month.We attribute this tocontinuous policy tightening on antibiotics usage.In the past nine months,corn prices increased 1%.We remain cautious on the long-term pricing trendfor 6-APA and 7-ACA.TCM raw material prices:QKL and Shen Mai ingredients mixedSince the National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines torelease stock and lower prices in July 2011,we have seen a steep decline inprices.The prices of honeysuckle and indigowoad root(the main ingredientsused in Shineways flagship product,Qing Kai Ling)fell 2%MoM andincreased 3%MoM in January 2013,respectively.Shen Mais mainingredients,ophiopogon root and gadix ginseng,were down 8%and up 11%.,Mindray Medical(MR.N),USD38.60 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)16.8 21.6 19.1EV/EBITDA(x)11.5 14.5 12.5Price/book(x)2.6 3.4 3.0WuXi PharmaTech(WX.N),USD16.10 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)12.0 11.8 10.8EV/EBITDA(x)7.0 6.2 5.0Price/book(x)1.5 1.9 1.5China Shineway(2877.HK),HKD14.00 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)13.9 13.1 11.3EV/EBITDA(x)8.8 7.7 6.5,We prefer multiples-based valuation;risks relate mainly to policy/regulations,Price/book(x),2.1,2.2,2.0,We use a multiples-based valuation approach in light of the sustainable growth,that we expect from the sector.Industry risks relate mainly to government,Related recent research,policies and regulatory changes in China,in particular healthcare reforms,which could negatively affect pricing.Additional risks generally relate to risingraw material costs and overexposure to the EDL(Essential Drug List)and RDL(Reimbursement Drug List).,China Edge P92:Monthly datatracker,September 2012China Edge P94:Monthly datatracker,October 2012China Edge P99:Monthly datatracker,November 2012China Edge P101:Monthly datatracker,December 2012,27 September01 November28 November201203 January2013,_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,May-07,May-08,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Jan-07,Mar-07,Jan-08,Mar-08,Nov-07,Nov-08,Jan-09,Mar-09,Jan-10,Mar-10,Nov-09,Jan-11,Mar-11,Nov-10,Jan-12,Mar-12,Nov-11,Jul-12,Nov-12,Sep-07,Sep-08,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Sep-12,in,49.2,55.1,30 January 2013Health CareChina HealthcareDecember healthcarespending declined 12%YoY12%YoY decrease in DecemberAfter strong growth of 21%YoY in 3Q12,government spending growth dropped to-6%YoY in 4Q12.In 2012,total government spending was RMB719.9bn,representing only13%YoY growth.In December,growth decelerated to-12%YoY.This breaks down to,16%/14%/31%/2%/2%/-12%,YoY,July/August/September/October/November/,December 2012,respectively.See Figure 4 for details on monthly spending.We remind investors that 2012 budgets for fiscal spending represent 14.1%growth,vs.2012 actual spending growth of 13%,the first year of under-delivery since 2008.Thesedata points confirm our projection of constraints in local government financing forhealthcare spending,as mentioned in our report 2012 Outlook:A year of stabilization,published 12 December 2011.,Figure 1:Monthly government spending on healthcare(January 2007 to December 2012),Figure 2:Annual government spending on healthcare(2000 to 2012),RMB bn,Monthly,YoY%,RMB bn,150,143.0,90%,800,720,125,118.6,133.2,117.2,70%,700,637,600,25%CAGR(2000-12),100,50%,500,475,80.8,75,57.1,58.1,66.056.2,60.254.4,75.371.166.861.357.2 56.2,30%,400,399,50,46.4 47.4 46.8,49.3,47.9,10%,300,276,250,17.0,25.2,28.5,31.2,-10%-30%,200100,49,57,64,78,85,104,132,199,0,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC;January and February 2011 data was extrapolated from YTD April 2011 data,as both monthswere not provided by the governmentPage2,Source:CEIC,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,1Q07,2Q07,3Q07,4Q07,1Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,30 January 2013Health CareChina HealthcareFigure 3:Quarterly government spending on healthcare(1Q07 to 4Q12),RMB bn250,Quarterly spending(LHS),YOY growth(RHS)240.2,80%,226.4211.0,200,195.1,181.8 82.4,60%,168.6,150,124.9,151.1,129.3,40%,111.5102.7,100500Source:CEIC,88.0,76.9,20%0%-20%,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page3,30 January 2013Health CareChina HealthcareFigure 4:Monthly government spending on healthcare(January 2008 to November 2012),RMB bnJan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12,Monthly9.48.015.015.817.023.118.219.025.220.523.680.812.112.821.624.624.233.626.920.128.521.031.0143.011.713.424.332.332.238.228.535.547.434.258.1118.618.518.539.946.456.266.047.449.254.446.860.2133.231.231.266.849.357.275.355.156.271.147.961.3117.2,MOM%-84%-15%89%5%8%36%-21%5%32%-19%15%243%-85%6%68%14%-2%39%-20%-25%42%-26%47%361%-92%14%81%33%0%19%-25%24%34%-28%70%104%-84%0%115%16%21%17%-28%4%11%-14%29%121%-77%0%114%-26%16%32%-27%2%27%-33%28%91%,YOY%61%15%46%8%73%33%28%28%48%54%34%42%28%61%43%56%42%45%48%6%13%3%31%77%-3%5%13%31%33%14%6%77%66%63%88%-17%58%38%64%44%75%73%66%39%15%37%4%12%69%69%68%6%2%14%16%14%31%2%2%-12%,Annual total275.7399.4474.5636.7719.9,YOY%39%45%19%34%13%,YTD9.417.432.448.265.288.4106.6125.6150.8171.3194.9275.712.124.946.471.095.2128.8155.7175.8204.4225.4256.4399.411.725.149.481.7113.8152.1180.6216.1263.5297.8355.9474.518.537.076.9123.3179.5245.5292.9342.1396.5443.3503.5636.731.262.5129.3178.6235.8311.1366.2422.4493.5541.4602.7719.9,YOY%61%36%41%28%37%36%35%34%36%38%37%39%28%43%43%47%46%46%46%40%36%32%32%45%-3%1%6%15%20%18%16%23%29%32%39%19%58%47%56%51%58%61%62%58%50%49%41%34%69%69%68%45%31%27%25%23%24%22%20%13%,%of annual3%3%5%6%6%8%7%7%9%7%9%29%3%3%5%6%6%8%7%5%7%5%8%36%2%3%5%7%7%8%6%7%10%7%12%25%3%3%6%7%9%10%7%8%9%7%9%21%4%4%9%7%8%10%8%8%10%7%9%16%,Source:CEIC;January and February 2011 data was extrapolated from YTD April 2011 data,as both months were not provided by the government,Page4,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,May-08,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Jan-08,Mar-08,Jan-09,Mar-09,Jan-10,Mar-10,Jan-11,Mar-11,Jan-12,Mar-12,Nov-08,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,Jul-12,Nov-12,Sep-08,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Sep-12,30 January 2013Health CareChina HealthcareShenzhen customs data onequipment exports26%YoY growth in December 2012In this section,we track monthly and quarterly export shipments(the total of black andwhite ultrasound,color ultrasound and patient monitors)from the Shenzhen customsdata.Shenzhen is a tier-one city in Guangdong,Chinas southernmost province,and theclosest Chinese city to Hong Kong.Annual growth was 26%in 2009,28%in 2010,22%in 2011 and 10%in 2012.The dataare seasonal,as 1Q typically represents about 20%of annual shipments,while 4Qtypically represents about 30%.Ultrasound and patient monitor shipments of USD61.0m were recorded in December2012,an increase of 26%YoY and 51%MoM vs.0%YoY and 21%MoM in November2012.On a rolling three-month basis from October to December 2012,growth was 13%YoY,lower than the 23%YoY increase from October to December 2011.13%YoY growth in 4Q12 Shenzhen shipment data4Q12 saw a 13%YoY increase compared with 0%YoY in 3Q12,a 19%YoY increase in2Q12 and 8%YoY in 1Q12(see Figure 7 for quarterly details).We note that 4Q11,whichsaw 23%YoY growth,served as a strong base of comparison for 4Q12.,Figure 5:Monthly Shenzhen customs export data(as ofDecember 2012),Figure 6:Annual Shenzhen customs export data(as ofDecember 2012),US m70,Monthly export(LHS),YOY growth(RHS),80%,(USD mn),500,60,60%,450,403.8,444.7,40050,40,40%20%,350300,257.5,330.1,3020,0%,250200150,204.3,100,-20%-40%,100500,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:Shenzhen custom statistics(the total of black&white ultrasound,color ultrasound and patientmonitors)Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Source:Shenzhen custom statistics(the total of black&white ultrasound,color ultrasound and patientmonitors)Page5,0%,-4%,30 January 2013Health CareChina HealthcareFigure 7:Monthly and quarterly Shenzhen customs export data(as of December 2012)Mon thl y data,US$m20082009201020112012,Jan13.613.720.131.123.3,Feb8.714.219.019.630.0,Mar16.118.230.936.140.7,Apr17.919.623.528.835.4,May16.416.727.925.930.7,Ju n18.722.732.435.541.2,Ju l14.221.824.935.534.3,Au g15.121.928.832.632.9,Se p23.825.225.940.041.4,Oct14.822.128.430.233.4,Nov18.828.830.940.240.3,Dec26.132.637.348.261.0,T otal2 04.32 57.53 30.14 03.84 44.7,Mon thl y:Ye ar-ov e r-ye ar grow th,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Ju n,Ju l,Au g,Se p,Oct,Nov,Dec,T otal,2009201020112012,0%47%55%-25%,63%34%3%53%,13%70%17%13%,10%19%23%23%,2%68%-7%19%,22%43%10%16%,53%14%42%-3%,45%31%13%1%,6%3%54%3%,49%29%6%11%,53%7%30%0%,25%14%29%26%,26%28%22%,Qu arte rl y data,Qu arte rly:Ye ar-ov e r-year grow th,US$m,1Q,2Q,3Q,4Q,T otal,1Q,2Q,3Q,4Q,T otal,20082009201020112012,38.546.069.986.794.0,52.959.083.890.2107.4,53.269.079.7108.1108.6,59.783.596.7118.7134.7,2 0 4.32 5 7.53 3 0.14 0 3.84 4 4.7,20082009201020112012,n/a20%52%24%8%,n/a11%42%8%19%,n/a30%16%36%0%,n/a40%16%23%13%,n/a26%28%22%10%,Source:Shenzhen custom statistics(the total of black&white ultrasound,color ultrasound and patient monitors)Data directionally correlates to Mindray international sales growthDecember data indicate moderate rebound in Mindrays international revenue growthThe historical trend shows that actual reported growth is directionally correlated toShenzhen data.In 1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12 and 3Q12,MR reportedinternational revenue growth of 30%,18%,26%,21%,17%,21%,and 12%,comparedwith Shenzhens export growth of 24%,8%,36%,23%,8%,19%,and 0%,respectively(see Figure 8).Based on the December data point,there could be a rebound inMindrays international sales growth in 4Q12Figure 8:Shenzhens customs export growth vs.Mindray Medicals internationalrevenue growth,70%,Shenzhen expor ts,Mi ndr ay s i nter nati onal,60%50%,61%,52%,40%,40%,42%,36%,30%20%10%,20%,11%,30%,6%,17%,27%,18%16%,20%16%,30%24%,18%8%,26%,23%15%,17%8%,21%19%,12%13%,0%-1%1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12-10%Source:Shenzhen custom statistics(the total of black Mindray Medical company data,Deutsche Bankestimates,Page6,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Oct-07,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Apr-07,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jan-12,May-10,May-11,May-12,Jan-10,Jan-11,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Sep-10,Sep-11,Sep-12,Nov-10,Nov-11,Nov-12,30 January 2013Health CareChina HealthcareActive pharmaceuticalingredient(API)pricingBoth 7-ACA and 6-APA prices rebounded from a two-year nadir6-APA(aminopenicillanic acid)is the core active pharmaceutical ingredient(API)used inpenicillin antibiotics.It is a byproduct of corn.7-ACA(aminocephalosporanic acid)is thecore API used in cephalosporins antibiotics.For a description of these antibiotics,refer toour reinstating coverage report on The United Laboratories(3933.HK),published on 18November 2010.6-APA price declined slightly in January 2013Currently,the 6-APA price is RMB180/kg,showing a slight decline from RMB185/kg inDecember 2012 and near the bottom of historical levels of RMB163-350/kg.Pricesdeclined 29%in 2011 and continue to decline MoM;however,there has been a 16%rebound from the trough of RMB160/kg in 2H11.The range between January 2010 and December 2011 was RMB163/kg(December2011)to RMB230/kg(November to December 2010).The current prices are near two-year lows.Outlook for 2013The prices of 6-APA in China were relatively sluggish during 1H10 and reached troughlevels of RMB175/kg in April 2010.Subsequently,there were signs of recovery,asprices peaked at RMB230/kg in December 2010,about 8%lower and 41%higher thanthe 2009 peak and trough levels of RMB250/kg and RMB163/kg,respectively,as shownin Figure 9 and Figure 10.The price of 6-APA was relatively stable with a slight upwardtrend in 2012.We expect volumes to pick up in 1H13,given the deceleration of inflationand a lower base in 1H12 amid the implementation of restrictions on the use ofantibiotics.,Figure 9:6-APA(January 2007 to January 2013)(RMB/kg)5004003002001000Source:HDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Figure 10:6-APA(January 2010 to January 2013)(RMB/kg)5004003002001000Source:H,Page7,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-07,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12,Jan-13,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Apr-07,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jul-12,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,May-10,May-11,May-12,Mar