synovateAPP调研建议书.ppt

,Proposal:Photocopy Paper Market Profile(China),APPSynovate Business Consulting Oct 9th,2004,Synovate is one of the worlds leading research firms,having over 4,000 employees in 84 offices across 52 countries.Synovate Business Consulting is the business intelligence and strategy consulting division of Synovate,providing intelligence-based strategic advice to major corporate clients,with 16 offices across Asia.Synovate Business Consulting is driven by an experienced team of over 60 full-time professionals across 16 major Asia-Pacific markets,supported by a network of highly qualified Researchers in each country,all of whom have local industry knowledge and expertise.The philosophy of Synovate Business Consulting is to provide cost-effective services with the highest degree of customisation.Services include:,Market opportunity analysisMarket profiles and sizingCompetitive intelligenceCorporate intelligenceProduct intelligence,Competitor trackingMarket feasibility&market entry strategyProduct launchPartner evaluation&selectionDistribution&value chain consulting,Synovate Business Consulting,Project background,APP,a global leading paper industry player is now seeking to Better understand Greater Shanghai(Shanghai,Jiangsu&Zhejiang)Photocopy Paper market&trend,Identify key competitors market shares&competitive advantages/disadvantagesIdentify opportunities for future developmentSynovate Business Consulting specializes in market profiles concentrating on market sizing/forecasting,competitive analysis,distribution analysis and strategic recommendations,with a focus on Chinas hardware and industrial materials industryIn the following proposal Synovate Business Consulting aims to clearly outline the approach,methodology,deliverables,timing and fees of this project:,Project scope,Geographic coverage ShanghaiZhejiang,focusing onHangzhouNingboWenzhouJiangsu,focusing on NanjingWuxi,Customers CoverageCustomer by channels(TBD):Direct salesHypermarketSuper marketOther retail storesOnline/tele suppliersOther,Timeframe2001-2003Forecasting 2004-2007,Proposed subject areasPhotocopy Paper High endMid endLow end,Research methodology,Analysis by Synovate Business Consulting,Executive interviews with:Key competitorsDistributorsRetailersCustomersTrade organizations and industry experts,Primary research:In-depth business interviews,Secondary research,Competitors websitesIndustry publicationsStatistical yearbooksBusiness newsBusiness directoriesSynovate BC databasesAny published paper products reports,10-15%of data,80-85%of data,Available data and information from APP,5%of data,Research methodology(Full resource coverage),Primary research(80-85%data),Synovatedatabase,Official statistics,3rd party data providers,Secondary research（1015data）,Achieve sales information of main competitors,which represent most market share,and data on market sizes by product segment,customer segment,distribution channel&,geographic market are coveredAchieve customer behavior information from customer interviews to verify supply side dataAchieve quantitative/qualitative information from industry associations/distributors e.g.key competitors sales,customer demand&distribution channel share,etc,Achieve macro economic data(e.g.customer Number/distribution,etc.),main competitors background information,market trend,etc,Competitor,Customers,Distributor/association,Secondary research,Competitor information,Customer segmentation,Distribution,Macro data,Main source,Secondarysource,Non-source,Legend:,Customer behavior,Research methodology(Primary research),1-Senior officials of industry organizations We would suggest conducting approximately n=3-5 interviewsExamples include:China Paper Association,2-Competitor interviews We would suggest conducting approximately n=30-35 interviews with managers and key staff of major foreign and local competitors,In-depth executives interviews with:,Analysis and recommendations by Synovate Business Consultants,4-Commercial Customer interviews We would suggest conducting approx n=20 interviews with commercial customers,3-Distributor/retailer interviewWe would suggest conducting approx n=60-65 interviews with distributors/retailers,5-Commercial customers interviewsWe would suggest conducting approx n=1,200 telephone interviews with commercial customers,Research methodology telephone interview sample,School,Other,By size(employee number),By Industry,To determine sample size/allocation,followings factors are taken into consideration:Industry,main impact demand on photocopy paperSize,main impact-purchasing patternOwnership,-which may have different purchasing pattern6 cities will be covered in this research Shanghai,Hangzhou,Ningbo,Wenzhou,Nanjing&Wuxi,Large,Medium,Small,Government,Bank,Trading&service,Non sub-segmentation,Non sub-segmentation,Research methodology telephone interview sample(Cont),ShanghaiHangzhouNingboWenzhouNanjingWuxi,Samples will be allocated evenly in each city for comparison purposeBank&government are not segmented by size Schools are segmented by elementary schools,middle schools&universities,Total 1,200 interviews,We estimate at least 110 executive-level interviews&1,200(customer)telephone interviews across the Greater Shanghai region(covering Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang)are needed to obtain the required competitor,customer and marketplace insights,for a complete and comprehensive analysis.Synovate Business Consulting does not quote its fees or structure the research process based on a sample size.The number of interviews presented in the previous page only provides an indication of the amount of time and effort required to obtain the necessary information for analysis.The actual number of interviews may increase depending on the level of difficulty of information collection and the accuracy of findings.,Face-to-Face Interviews,Face-to-face interviews with industry experts would be conducted by our Synovate staff.A semi-structured discussion format will be used to encourage interviewees to talk around the subject,rather than answering yes/no questions to elicit detailed qualitative information and insight.The purpose of the industry interviews is for our consultants to have discussions with the full spectrum of persons and organisations involved in the photocopy paper and associated industries,who have information that would help us to compile our analysis of the market.In-depth interviews would be conducted with relevant market players,industry experts,customers,and government officials to yield insights for strategy development.This phase will generate the bulk of information feeding into market size estimates,segmentation,competitor intelligence,and insights on market direction.,Finding and Talking to the Right People is the key,for example:COMPETITOR INTERVIEWSGeneral ManagersSales,Marketing&Purchasing ManagersSuppliers,INDUSTRY INTERVIEWSDistributorsHypermarket&other retailersCommercial customers,THIRD PARTY INTERVIEWSIndustry Associations,Face-to-Face Interviews(Cont.),The methodology below will be applied to determine the list of companies to be interviewedSelection of interviewees is based on:Types of companies-top players in each product segment,as defined by volume and value.Interview targets within those companies-more than one person may be interviewed in each company,to secure and cross-check information required.,1.Identify universe of suppliers in each product segment,2.Preliminary research to shortlist key players,3.Interview with senior management in key companies,4.1 Additional interview with other personnel in the same company,5.Counter-check claims with third-party interviews,Identification,shortlist and verification of interviewees,4.2 Identify new interview targets,e.g.other major players,Interviewee Selection Methodology,Interview skills,Synovate has systematic internal interview skill trainingSecuring interviewsDirect setting up interviews mainly for customer/distributor interviewsDummy report mainly for competitor/distributor/association interviewsThird party reference mainly for competitor/distributor/association interviewsOversea confirmation Use Synovate oversea office to help set up interviewsMultiple interviews targets in one single organization E.g.Sales/marketing/planning Mngr.Elicitation skillIndirect questions avoid sensitive questionsInformation exchange touch in-depth topics and get sensitive information without questions“Stupid questions/obvious wrong comments”Induce interviewees to defend with sensitive information(always sales figure/market share/growth rates)Other psychological No break questioningFatigue tacticsNon project related information sharingOther,Desk research conducted within China,would be used to gather background information and to develop preliminary knowledge of market size,market structure,segmentation,growth rates,competitors,distribution and value chains,etc.It will also be used to identify face-to-face interviews amongst appropriate organizations in each region.All primary research reports and other information and data purchased by Synovate for the purpose of this project will be made available to APP.Sources used will include(not exhaustive):Local and international business news mediaSpecialized press,such as sports industry journalsPublished industry reportsStatistical reports and other government publications,such as establishment census or surveyCompany annual reports and other publicity materialsReports from banks and financial analysts,Desk Research,Environmental Scan&Market Analysis,Environmental Scan&Market Analysis-this stage involves the assessment of Greater Shanghais photocopy paper industry,Market OverviewDetermine market&technology overview&trends such as:Growth drivers,new product or product substitutionMarket SizeIdentify 2003 Photocopy Paper market size(Value$and volume)By region&cityBy price range,also by city/region(details TBD after the preliminary research)High end Mid endLow endBy distribution analysis(refer to distribution analysis)By customer segment(refer to customer analysis)Key brands identificationIdentify key brands(those with more than 15 metric tons sales monthly)in each city(approximately 10 brands in each city)Identify basic paper supplier of each brandIdentify(estimated)net price&retail sales price of key brandsIdentify key distributors of key brandsIdentify market shares(Value&volume)of key brands,Environmental Scan&Market Analysis,Market sizing methodology(sample),Add up TOP players revenue/volume/Market share,C,B,A,D,E,G,F,H,I,Identify TOP players in each segment,Source:Competitor interviews;Customer interviews;Distributor interviews;Industry associations;Secondary research,Collect TOP player data,Revenue:XXXSales Vol.:Market Share:XX%Growth Rate:XX%Segment share:XX%,However,market share is always very difficult for interviewee to estimate,especially for fragmented segment.Following techniques are applied:Cross check/double check(by multi interviews)Share external information with interviews to help make exact estimation(during interview)Logic check(during interview),XX%,Virgin Pulp,Grass Pulp,Mixed Pulp,Other,Total size model(Cover 4 customer segments),XX%,Each segment size model(e.g.Virgin Pulp),Each competitors total revenue,Each competitors single segment revenue,Size,Market sizing by supply side(covering product segment/customer segment/forecast),XX%,Forecast model,Each competitors new added volume/value,(Market share of TOP players),(Market share of TOP players),(A+B+C+D)/XX%,Size,(A+B+C+D)/XX%,Forecast,(A+B+C+D)/total revenue of top players,(Market share of TOP players),Market sizing methodology(sample),Market sizing by demand side(covering product segment/forecast,and second tier city market sizes will be mainly figured out from demand side supporting by competitor information),Key:Meaningful segmentation according to industry structure(different customer types and sizes)based on expert interviews+representative sampling of budget/expenditure.E.g.(Average customer spend within each segment X Total estimated universe of customers in each segment)+(Estimated size of other segments),Estimated total spend(per annum)US$12.8m,Interviews with key customers per tier/class/type,Interviews emphasis will be on Tier III and II customers that generate high value,All figures here are hypothetical numbers,Market size model,Forecast model,Key:Growth of total estimated universe of customers in each segment&change of average customer spend(customer behavior)will draw the market growth,Product Manager,Source E:Over$X;about$Y.”Average credibility from top-of-mind response.,Marketing Manager,Source F:$XAverage credibility from top-of-mind response.,Marketing Manager,Source F:$XAverage credibility from top-of-mind response.,Manager,Marketing Department,Source A:$XUnsure estimate with low credibility.,Industry Publication,Source B:Market size value:$X;Above average credibility as methodologies are based on trade association interviews,trade press,company research,trade interviews and estimates.,Final estimate:US$12.8 m*,US$m,Chairman,Source D:$X,based on data on import/export/local production and manufacturer sales.High credibility as industry expert.,Senior Manager,Source C:Total market size:$X-Y,based on in-house research.High credibility as estimates are verified with Source Cs own sales figures.,Business Development Manager,Source G:$XAverage credibility,since the company is believed to have under-reported(for tax evasion)sales.,Source A Source BSource C Source DSource E Source F Source G Source H,*Hypothetical numbers,Note:Breadth of column indicates relative credibility between respondents estimates,Market sizing methodology(sample),Market sizing by executive opinion(Inputs from various sources are compared and a consensus reached to determine the final figures.),Market sizing methodology&approach(Cont.),Market sizing by supply model,Market sizing by demand model,GAP analysis&adjustment(covering product segment/forecast),US$150 M,US$170 M,GAP:US$20 M,Some customers consider low end customers as high end products even if after instructionSome regional players are missed for they are only selling products in relative developing areas,Gap analysis(Sample),Adjustment(Sample),US$161 M,Note:Forecast gap will also be processed in the same way,Market sizing by executive opinion,US$165 M,Report Structure Market Sizing,Grass pulp,Mixed pulp,Virgin pulp,Market sizing by product segment,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%,60%,70%,80%,90%,100%,2,297,555,373,348,211,378,240,Proportion of Sales Value(000 US$),Sample output,A4,A3,B4,B5,8K,16K,Other,Report Structure Market Sizing,High end,Mid end,Low end,Market sizing by price,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%,60%,70%,80%,90%,100%,A4,2,297,555,373,348,211,378,240,Proportion of Sales Value(000 US$),Sample output,A3,B4,B5,8K,16K,Other,Report Structure Market Sizing,Market size forecast by product,Market size forecast by distribution,Unit:Million USD,Unit:Million USD,Sample output,Report Structure Market share,Brand C,Brand