中国房地产：海外上市房产股选股调整；绿城房产龙湖地产进入强力买入名单(摘要)1023.ppt

,2012 年 10 月 22 日中国：房地产证券研究报告海外上市房产股选股调整；绿城房产/龙湖地产进入强力买入名单(摘要)市场前景稳定有望推动四季度销售强劲,我们认为今年以来开发商的强劲销售势头将延续至四季度，且 9 月份销售的环比,我们研究范围内的海外上市房地产股的潜在上行/下行空间,下降并不意味着需求下降。相反，我们认为 9 月份交易量下滑是比较基数较高以及主要城市销售趋势季节性走低所致。总体来看，不同地区的销量已出现分化，一线城市仍处于 2008 年以来的低点，而大部分其它城市接近或处于历史区间中,18/OctOffshore listedGreentown,Rating LCYB*HK$,12-M TPPotentialupside/downside12.91 45%,Bull-casevaluationVariancevs.currentshare15.68 76%,Bear-casevaluationVariancevs.currentshare7.98-10%,点。,Sunac BPoly Property(H)B,HK$HK$,5.556.10,39%37%,6.156.93,54%56%,3.193.56,-20%-20%,EvergrandeLongforCountry Garden,BB*B,HK$HK$HK$,4.4616.874.12,34%33%29%,5.1920.864.44,56%64%39%,2.6811.482.79,-19%-9%-13%,股市已计入积极的销量；房价上涨是推动股价进一步上行的前提今年以来，我们所覆盖的海外上市房地产股平均上涨了 35%，而同期 MSCI 中国指数的涨幅为 9%。由于市场担忧房价反弹后政府将实施新一轮调控，目前股价已自 7 月份峰值回落，但我们认为我们研究范围内的海外上市房地产股已基本计入了销量的强劲复苏。在我们看来，房价持续上涨是股价进一步上涨的前提，鉴于目前政府放松调控的可预见性较低，我们认为房价持续上涨的可能性不大。,CRLKWGE-HouseSOHOR&FAgileFranshionCOGOShui On LandSino OceanShimaoCOLIYanlordPCRTOffshore average,BNNNNNNNNNNNSS,HK$HK$US$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$S$S$,21.205.504.916.1411.0610.052.758.983.545.2413.6819.431.230.45,23%22%21%18%17%16%15%9%8%7%-4%-5%-6%-10%17%,24.906.306.006.4412.7612.143.0910.633.985.9515.4124.081.510.54,45%40%48%24%35%40%29%29%21%21%8%18%16%8%36%,15.023.553.504.807.447.131.946.502.393.569.2715.340.800.35,-13%-21%-14%-8%-21%-18%-19%-21%-27%-28%-35%-25%-39%-31%-21%,注：*该股位于我们的亚太地区强力买入名单；,房产税构成短期风险，但长期利好我们认为房产税是房地产行业调控政策正常化，即取代限购令的一个选择，因此在中长期有积极意义，但不排除某一阶段政府可能会同时实行限购令和房产税政策，从而对我们的销量预测构成下行风险。重新评估风险回报；调整选股建议我们调整了 2012-14 年盈利预测和基于净资产价值的 12 个月目标价格（调整幅度为-28%-+17%）以反映每家开发商的合同销售、销售均价和近期土地收购情况。随后，我们基于目标价格以及最新的乐观和悲观净资产价值预测所面临的风险回报调整了海外房地产股选股建议。我们将龙湖地产和绿城房产加入强力买入名单；将碧桂园评级从中性上调至买入；将雅居乐房产和远洋地产评级从买入下调至中性；并将鹏瑞利和仁恒置地评级从中性下调至卖出。我们还重申对融创中国、华润置地、恒大地产和保利置业的买入评级，以及对其余股票的中性评级。风险：上行：调控政策意外放松推动房价反弹强于预期；下行：政府调控进一步收紧和/或宏观硬着陆。*全文翻译将随后提供,资料来源：DataStream、高华证券研究预测相关研究2012年7月8日：中国：房地产：保持对行业中期乐观；但短期政策压房价风险上升可加剧板块波动2012 年3月8日：A股开发商：破茧之旅-上调目标价格；强力买入中南建设和鲁商置业研究范围变动我们将方兴地产、绿城房产和瑞安房地产的研究从王逸转至李薇名下，将易居中国的研究从王逸转至杜茜名下。我们将雅居乐和碧桂园的研究从孙贤兵转至王逸名下，并将合景泰富和保利置业的研究从孙贤兵转至李薇名下。,王逸,CFA 执业证书编号:S1420510120004+86(21)2401-8930 北京高华证券有限责任公司李薇 执业证书编号:S1420510120012+86(21)2401-8926 北京高华证券有限责任公司杜茜 执业证书编号:S1420511100001+86(10)6627-3147 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司,北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。投资研究,3,5,13,14,15,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,32,2,2012 年 10 月 22 日Table of contentsSummary of rating and target price changesIndustry trends:Sales strong,inventory trend mixedProperty tax a double-edged swordnear term risk,long-term boonLimited scope for sector outperformance;price growth visibility keySummary of underlying EPS changes and target NAV discountsGreentown:Operational resilience and attractive valuation;CL-BuyLongfor:Opportune land banking drives stronger growth;CL-BuyCountry Garden:Solid growth,attractive valuation;up to BuyAgile:Overhang from Chairman creates uncertainty;to NeutralSino-Ocean:Valuation less attractive;downgrade to NeutralYanlord:Weakened brand affecting its high-end focus;down to SellPerennial:Ability to manage asset operations unproven;to SellAppendix:GFA,Contract sales,Presale ASP,Lock in ratios,GearingDisclosure AppendixThe prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of October 18,2012,unless otherwise specified.The author would like to thank Olivia Xiao for her contribution to this report.Exhibit 1:Summary of our rating,NAV and target price changes,中国：房地产36,Rating chg,NAV chg,TP chg,Potential upside/downside,Ticker,LCY,New,Old,New,Old Chg(%),New,Old Chg(%),Share price as ofOct 18,Upside/downside,Offshore coverage,GreentownSunacPoly Property(H)EvergrandeLongforCountry GardenCRLKWGE-houseSOHOR&FAgileFranshionCOGOShui On LandSino OceanShimaoCOLIYanlordPerennial,3900.HK1918.HK0119.HK3333.HK0960.HK2007.HK1109.HK1813.HKEJ0410.HK2777.HK3383.HK0817.HK0081.HK0272.HK3377.HK0813.HK0688.HKYNLG.SIPCRT.SI,(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(US$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(S$)(S$),Buy*BuyBuyBuyBuy*BuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralSellSell,BuyBuyBuyBuyBuyNeutralBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral,21.5211.1012.208.9324.105.8926.509.16n.a.10.2318.4316.753.9311.237.0810.4722.8024.292.050.64,19.219.4812.008.9324.005.3625.487.43n.a.10.2920.1618.723.7910.367.9910.4721.9023.402.550.78,121720010423n.m.-1-9-1148-11044-19-18,12.915.556.104.4616.874.1221.205.504.916.1411.0610.052.758.983.545.2413.6819.431.230.45,11.534.746.004.4616.803.7520.385.206.806.1712.0913.102.658.294.005.2413.1418.721.530.55,12172001046-28-1-9-2348-11044-19-18,8.914.004.453.3312.683.2017.184.504.065.219.448.682.408.223.294.9114.2420.351.310.50,45%39%37%34%33%29%23%22%21%18%17%16%15%9%8%7%-4%-5%-6%-10%,Offshore average,1,-2,17%,Note:Rating changes are in bold;*This stock is on our regional Conviction List.Source:Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.高华证券投资研究,3,2012 年 10 月 22 日,中国：房地产,Summary of rating and target price changesWe revise our 2012E-2014E earnings and NAV estimates to factor in each companyscontract sales,ASP performance,and new land bank acquisitions in recent months(seeAppendix for details).Underlying earnings change on average in a range of minus 1%to plus 3%and our 2012 NAV estimates by minus 19%to plus 23%.On the back of this,we restack our preferences among our offshore coverage based on ouranalysis of the risk-reward to our target prices,and our bull and bear case NAV valuations.Weadd Greentown and Longfor to our Conviction Buy list and upgrade Country Garden toBuy.We also adjust other stock ratings,shown in brief below(detailed later).Summary of rating changesGreentown:Add to Asia Pacific Conviction Buy list.We expect mean reversion ofGreentowns valuation on its earnings/margin normalization after the repair of its balance sheet.Longfor:Add to Asia Pacific Conviction Buy list.We expect Longfor to deliver stronger-than-peer contract sales growth in 2013 among our coverage universe on its opportune land bankingsince 2Q12,strong brand equity,and execution ability.Country Garden:Upgrade to Buy from Neutral on solid growth with attractive valuation.Agile:downgrade to Neutral from Buy as we see an overhang from the arrest of thecompanys Chairman,as it may affect operational performance.Sino-Ocean:downgrade to Neutral from Buy on less attractive valuation after recent strongshare price performance.Yanlord:downgrade to Sell from Neutral as we see the companys high-end focus willcontinue to expose it to policy uncertainties and due to the recent impairment of its brand imagedue to quality issues at its high-profile project in Shanghai.Perennial CRT:downgrade to Sell from Neutral as we see worse-than-expected execution onmanaging asset performance and a challenging outlook to achieving a turnaround in the near-term.Summary of offshore coverage transfersWe transfer coverage of Franshion,Greentown and Shui On Land to Vicky Li and E-House toJacqueline Du from Yi Wang.We transfer coverage of Agile and Country Garden to Yi Wang,andKWG and Poly Property(H)to Vicky Li from Jason Sun.Primary coverage for offshore property names is as follows:Yi Wang:Agile,COLI,CRL,Country Garden,Evergrande,R&F,Longfor,Shimao,Sino Ocean,SOHO and Yanlord.Vicky Li:COGO,Franshion,Greentown,KWG,Poly Property(H),Shui On Land,Sunac andPCRT.Jacqueline Du:E-House.In addition,we are terminating coverage of Fantasia(1777.HK),Powerlong(1238.HK),andShenzhen Investment(0604.HK)to better focus our resources.Please see the companion noteon these stocks,dated October 22,2012,“Termination of coverage”.高华证券投资研究,2012年10月22日,中,tor offshore coverage valuation comparisons,Dividend yield,Price as of,12 mthPrice,Potentialupside/downside,Targetpricedisc.to,End-12 NAV scenario analysisShr priceShr price(disc)/prem(disc)/prem,Shr price(disc)/prem,FD Core P/E(x),P/B(x),(%),Rating,18/Oct/12,target,(%),NAV,Base-case,to NAV,Bull-case,to NAV Bear-case,to NAV,12E,13E,12E,13E,12E,13E,0,Neutral,8.7(HK$),10.05,16,-40%,16.75,(48),20.24,(57),11.9,(27),6.0,5.6,1.1,0.9,3.6,3.5,4,Neutral,8.2(HK$),8.98,9,-20%,11.23,(27),13.29,(38),8.1,1,9.1,7.9,2.4,1.9,1.2,2.7,3,Neutral,20.4(HK$),19.43,(5),-20%,24.29,(16),30.10,(32),19.2,6,10.8,11.5,1.9,1.7,1.9,1.6,8,Buy,17.2(HK$),21.20,23,-20%,26.50,(35),31.13,(45),18.8,(9),14.3,12.2,1.5,1.4,1.9,2.2,2,Buy,3.2(HK$),4.12,29,-30%,5.89,(46),6.35,(50),4.0,(20),7.6,6.6,1.4,1.2,4.6,5.3,5,Buy,3.3(HK$),4.46,34,-50%,8.93,(63),10.37,(68),5.4,(38),4.8,4.9,1.0,0.9,5.2,4.2,8,Neutral,2.4(HK$),2.75,15,-30%,3.93,(39),4.41,(46),2.8,(13),11.1,9.7,0.9,0.8,2.0,1.5,9,Buy*,8.9(HK$),12.91,45,-40%,21.52,(59),26.14,(66),13.3,(33),3.2,2.9,0.8,0.7,3.1,3.5,9,Neutral,9.4(HK$),11.06,17,-40%,18.43,(49),21.27,(56),12.4,(24),6.1,6.2,1.0,0.9,5.8,5.6,7,Neutral,4.5(HK$),5.50,22,-40%,9.16,(51),10.51,(57),5.9,(24),5.5,5.2,0.7,0.6,3.9,3.8,4,Buy*,12.7(HK$),16.87,33,-30%,24.10,(47),29.80,(57),16.4,(23),9.9,8.6,1.9,1.6,1.6,1.6,Buy,4.5(HK$),6.10,37,-50%,12.20,(64),13.86,(68),7.1,(38),7.4,6.8,0.6,0.6,3.0,3.0,4,Neutral,14.2(HK$),13.68,(4),-40%,22.80,(38),25.68,(45),15.4,(8),7.6,8.0,1.1,1.0,3.9,3.7,5,Neutral,3.3(HK$),3.54,8,-50%,7.08,(54),7.97,(59),4.8,(31),15.8,14.8,0.5,0.5,1.7,1.0,6,Neutral,4.9(HK$),5.24,7,-50%,10.47,(53),11.90,(59),7.1,(31),9.1,9.6,0.8,0.8,3.8,3.6,8,Neutral,5.2(HK$),6.14,18,-40%,10.23,(49),10.74,(51),8.0,(35),7.6,7.5,0.9,0.9,5.9,5.9,5,Buy,4.0(HK$),5.55,39,-50%,11.10,(64),12.30,(67),6.4,(37),4.0,3.5,1.0,0.8,2.0,2.1,20,(47),(54),(22),8.2,7.7,1.1,1.0,3.3,3.2,0,Sell,1.3(S$),1.23,(6),-40%,2.1,(36),2.5,(48),1.3,(2),12.6,14.4,0.8,0.7,0.6,0.4,4,Sell,0.5(S$),0.45,(10),-30%,0.6,(22),0.8,(35),0.5,1,73.7,43.3,0.6,0.6,7.7,7.0,3,Neutral,4.1(US$),4.91,21,n.a.,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,29.6,10.1,0.7,0.7,0.0,0.0,17,(45),(53),(20),8.5,8.1,1.1,1.0,3.1,3.1,gional Conviction List.2)Our 12-month target prices are based on end-2012E NAV for developers and a 2012E P/E multiple for E-House.3)Base-case:We assume prices are down,followed by 15%appreciation in 2H13.Bull-case:We expect the physical market only see a mild price decline(10%)in 1H12 and then recover by about 20%before end-2013E.,will decline to the last trough level(late 2008/early 2009),or about 40%below the current level.,o Hua Securities Research estimates.,5,2012 年 10 月 22 日,中国：房地产,Industry trends:Sales strong,inventory trend mixedStrong sales in first nine months;4Q outlook remains stableMonthly vol in first nine months of 2012 already at 2010 levels in primary marketThe average monthly volume of primary market sales in the first nine months of 2012 in tier-1 andselected tier-2 cities is back to levels registered in 2010,ahead of the traditionally seasonallystronger 4Q(see Exhibit 3).However,the average monthly volume in the secondary marketremains below the 2010 level,and is similar to the more depressed levels of 2011 Exhibit 4.,Exhibit 3:Volume performance in first nine months islower only than 2009 for primary market salesMonthly average volume in first 9 months of 2012 vs.2008-2011primary market,Exhibit 4:but average secondary market monthlyvolumes are comparable to first nine months of 2011Monthly average volume in first 9 months of 2012 vs.past yearsin secondary market,(mn sqm),Monthly average volume,Monthly average volume Jan-Sep,(mn sqm),Monthly average volume,Monthly average volume Jan-Sep,18161412,8765,104836,420,210,2008,2009,2010,2011,Jan-Sep 12,2008,2009,2010,2011,Jan-Sep 12,Note:The cities captured in this analysis include Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Shenzhen,Nanjing,Chengdu,Fuzhou,Changsha,Nanchang,Suzhou,Qingdao,Xiamen,Dalian,Dongguan,Baotou,Chongqing,Hangzhou and Xian.Source:CIA/Soufun,Gao Hua Securities Research.,Note:The cities captured in this analysis include Shanghai,Beijing,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Chengdu and Tianjin.Source:Centaline,Gao Hua Securities Research.,September sales not weak;we see volume seasonality fading.The sequential decline in sales in September has ignited concerns that pent-up demand may bepetering out.We do not think September sales indicate this,however,for these reasons:We believe the comparison base this summer might be too high.For example,June wasabnormally strong for sales this year(Exhibit 6).We note the fading seasonality of sales in major cities since 2008(Exhibit 5).Our analysisshows that September sales have not been notably stronger in tier-1 cities and select tier-2/-3 cities than sales in July and August(except for 2010).This pattern does not hold true fornationwide sales,where September remains a stronger month.高华证券投资研究,6,2012 年 10 月 22 日,中国：房地产Exhibit 5:Seasonal September strength over July Sept transaction vs.average July&August,2008-2012,100%,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,Avg July&Aug vs.June(%),Sept vs.avg July&Aug(%),Tier 1,Tier 2,Tier 3,National,Tier 1,Tier 2,Tier 3,National,Note:Tier 1 cities refer to Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen and Guangzhou;Tier 2 cities refer to Tianjin,Nanjing,Chengdu,Changsha,Suzhou,Qingdao,Xiamen,Dalian,Chongqing,Hangzhou,Wuhan,and Xian;Tier 3 cities refer to Fuzhou,Nanchang,Sanya,Guiyang,Dongguan,Huizhou,Wenzhou,Baotou,Changchun,Hefei,Haikou,Kunming,Harbin,Ningbo,Shantou,Xuzhou,Yangzhou,Lianyungang and Bengbu.Source:CIA/Soufun,NBS,Gao Hua Securities Research.Exhibit 6:June 2012 contract sales accounted for an average of 15%of listed developers2012 sales target vs.10%last yearSales comparison in June,July&Aug,Sept for listed developers,Company,Ticker,Monthly contract sales comparison,Avg July&Aug vs.June(%),Sept vs.June(%),June as%of sales/target,2011,2012,2011,2012,2011,2012,AgileCOLICRLCGEvergrandeGreentownR&FKWGLongforPoly Property(H)ShimaoSino OceanSunacSimple average,3383.HK0688.HK1109.HK2007.HK3333.HK3900.HK2777.HK1813.HK0960.HK0119.HK0813.HK3377.HK1918.HK,2%-49%-19%12%4%-36%-1%-8%29%-40%4%-37%49%-7%,-31%-39%-25%-6%-6%-42%-7%-11%-27%-51%-33%-45%-23%-27%,27%-46%0%-27%7%-53%18%-19%90%-46%12%25%4%-1%,-25%-42%-46%-16%-1%-25%-10%3%-12%-59%-15%-44%-9%-23%,7%14%11%9%11%10%8%9%6%15%10%10%9%10%,10%15%18%10%10%20%9%10%12%27%20%22%11%15%,Source:Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,1,2,1,2,7,2012 年 10 月 22 日,中国：房地产Volume in tier-1 cities still at lows since 2008;most others at themid-pointWe compare average monthly sales volumes for the first eight months of 2012 vs.averageannual(12-month)levels over 2008-2011.For most cities,the low-end was in 2008 and the high-end was in 2009 or 2010.However,performances diverge between cities and regions.The keyfindings are as follows:All tier-1 cities are below/at the low-end of their 2008-2011 historical range,particularly Shanghai,in which vol is even below its 2008 average level,a record low.This isalso true for some tier-2/-3 cities such as Ningbo,Wenzhou(at record low)in the YangtzeRiver Delta region;Tianjin,Dalian,Qingdao and Changchun in the Pan Bohai Rim;Kunming,Nanning,Hohhot,Urumqi,Yinchuan,Lanzhou,Xining and Beihai in Central Bohai Rim&Northern China is still at low end of their respective range.The key cities in Central&Western China(Chongqing,Chengdu,Changsha,Wuhan)ha