全球旅游业发展趋势（英文版） .ppt

ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2010/2011,prepared by IPK International on behalf of ITB Berlin THE WORLDS LEADING TRAVEL TRADE SHOW,www.itb-,ON OF,ESENTATI,LIVE PR,at ITB F,9,2011 rogram,ventio,ITB BERLIN,CONVENTION 2011,WTTR REPORT:uture Day,March,itb-con,Official Partner Country,ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT December 2010Copyright 2010 Messe Berlin GmbH,All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted,provided the source is givenaccurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full or in part is permitted for own orinternal use only.,The presentation of material in this publication and the designations employed do not imply theexpression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of Messe Berlin or any of its components oragents.,Prepared on behalf of ITB Berlin by:,IPK International,Gottfried-Keller Strasse 20D-81245 MunichGermany,Contact:Barbara Postel,Senior ConsultantTel.:+49 89 8292 370Fax:+49 89 8292 3726,Website:Email:,Published and printed by:,Messe Berlin GmbHMessedamm 22D-14055 BerlinGermany,Contact:Astrid Ehring,Press OfficerTel.:+49 30 3038 2275Fax:+49 30 3038 2141,Website:www.messe-berlin.deEmail:ehringmesse-berlin.de,www.itb-,Printed on environmentally-friendly paper,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011ITB World Travel Trends Report 2010/2011IntroductionThis World Travel Trends Report presents the major trends,statistics and forecasts aswell as key industry issues and potential future developments discussed at the WorldTravel Monitor Forum,held in Pisa in November 2010.At the annual event,organised byIPK International and sponsored by ITB Berlin,some 50 tourism experts and researchersfrom around the world present the latest statistics and trends in international travel andtourism.ContentsPage Section,37101315192325,A:B:C:D:E:F:G:H:,World trends-Strong recovery in 2010 and back to growth in 2011Europe recovers despite turbulenceAsia shakes off recession with dynamic growthNorthern strain but Southern comfort in the AmericasEmerging markets heat up the tourism industryTechnology-Tourists get social and mobileLohas The new premium tourism customers?Smart hotels and interactive customers,1,-,-,-,-,-,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011,Executive Summary,“The global crisis is over”,Strong recovery in world tourism in 2010New record figure for international tripsBoom in emerging markets,Good outlook for growth in 2011,World tourism is recovering strongly in 2010 from the recession and is firmly back onthe growth path.A new record figure for international trips will be set this year,whilespending is recovering well from a heavy slump last year.Growth is being driven byemerging markets such as Asia and South America while mature markets are seeing lowgrowth.Those were some of the key messages at the 18th World Travel Monitor Forumheld in Pisa on November 4-5,2010.The worlds international travel industry is backand now even more dynamic,and this year has underlined its role as one of themainstays of the global economy,declared Rolf Freitag,president of tourismconsultancy IPK International and founder of IPKs World Travel Monitor.,Key figures on global overnight travel(2010 changes compared to2009 changes):,All domestic and outbound trips:9.8 billion(+5%vs-1%-new all-time high),-Outbound trips:0.935 billion(+7%vs-4%-new all-time high),-Outbound nights:5 billion(+5%vs-7%-new all time high expected for 2011)-Outbound spending:781 billion(+7%vs-9%-new all time high expected,for 2011),Key trends 2010:,General:more trips but shorter length of stay and careful spendingEurope:low growth outbound&inbound,North America:low growth outbound;high single-digit inboundAsia:double-digit growth outbound;high single-digit inbound,South America:double-digit growth outbound;high single-digit inbound,Outlook&forecasts 2011:,IPK International:+4%(overnight outbound trips)UNWTO:+4-5%(international arrivals),Note:the figures and forecasts within this report are based on the world macro-economic situation as of early November 2010.Subsequent developments may impacton the outlook.,2,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011Section A:World travel trendsStrong recovery in 2010 and back to growth in 2011World travel has bounced back strongly in 2010 from the downturn of 2009 and looksset to return to the growth path in 2011 driven by improving world economic conditionsand higher consumer spending.International tourism will already hit a new all-time highthis year and is heading for further growth in the 3-5%range in 2011,according toexperts.World outbound tourism slumped in 2009,In 2009,the tourism sector was heavily hit by the,2009,2010,worldwide economic recession.The total numberof outbound trips fell 4%,the number ofoutbound room nights declined 7%and thesectors outbound turnover dropped 9%as pricesand rates tumbled,according to IPK figures.Revenue per hotel room,for example,slumped by26%in Asia and by 19%in Europe and NorthAmerica.International tourism declined with a4.2%fall to 880 million arrivals worldwide and a,All tripsOutbound tripsOutboundnightsOutboundspending in Intl arrivalsIntl spending,-1%-4%-7%-9%-4.2%-5.7%,+5%+7%+5%+7%+6-7%n/a,5.7%drop in spending to$852 billion(611billion),World Tourism Organization(UNWTO),Sources:World Travel Monitor,UNWTO,statistics show.but makes a strong comeback in 2010But the world tourism industry has proven its resilience with an unexpectedly strongcomeback this year.The global tourism sector will grow some 5%in 2010,according toIPKs World Travel Monitor.International travel spending will grow slightly faster by 7%to 781 billion while the much larger domestic travel market will also grow well bysome 4%,the latest World Travel Monitor trends for January-September 2010 show.This years recovery is being powered by emerging markets such as Asia,South Americaand the Middle East which all have double-digit growth rates.The large mature marketsof Europe and North America,in contrast,are showing only moderate growth this year.(The regional results will be examined in more detail in the following sections of thisreport.)New record for international visitor numbersThe number of international tourists will reach a new all-time high in 2010,according toIPK and UNWTO.“There will be a new world arrival record this year,”IPK president RolfFreitag declared.International arrivals are expected to increase by 6-7%to a new recordof 935 million trips,according to the World Travel Monitor.Perhaps more importantly,this represents a 2%increase on the previous record year of 2008,thus demonstratingthat international tourism has not only recovered from the 2009 slump but is alreadygrowing again in real terms in the first post-crisis year.3,12%,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011,This forecast is supported by the UNWTOslatest World Tourism Barometer which predictsa 5-6%rise in international tourist arrivals thisyear.This more than compensates for last years4%fall and will make 2010 into a new recordyear for international tourism in terms of visitornumbers.“The recovery that started at the endof 2009 will generate a good growth figure forthis year,”UNWTO executive director MrcioFavilla told Pisa participants.,RegionWorldEuropeAsia PacificN.AmericaS.AmericaM.East,2009-4%-6%-2%-6%-3%-5%,2010+5-6%+1-3%+9-11%0-2%+11-13%+10-,At a regional level,Asia Pacific,South America,and the Middle East are expected to see the,Source:UNWTO,strongest growth in inbound tourists this year.Africa will also have good growth rates.While all these regions will probably return to or exceed 2008 levels,Europe and NorthAmerica will only see a partial recovery,according to UNWTO predictions.Amongindividual destinations this years winners will be South Korea(28%),China(+23%),Germany(+11%),Croatia(+7%)and Mexico(+5%),according to IPKs Outlook 2010.But Spain(0%)and Greece(-5%)might fall back.The overall positive outlook was supported during the Pisa meeting by Boeing whichpredicts a 7%rise in the number of international air travellers this year.While short-haulair travel remains very price-sensitive,there is a comeback for the premium long-haulmarket.Air travel accounts nearly half of global international travel in terms of means oftransportation,according to the World Travel Monitor.Tourists count their Euros and dollarsTourists around the world are still being careful with their money,however.Totalspending by international travellers is expected to increase by 7%to 781 billion thisyear,the World Travel Monitor found.Given the 9%spending decline in 2009,thisrepresents a good recovery but leaves the 2010 figure still below the 2008 record of800 billion.Average spending per night is expected to be 107 while spending per tripwill be 1,141.Big spenders this year in terms of international tourism expenditure include China(+22%),the Russia Federation(+26%)and Brazil(+54%),according to UNWTO figures.Among the ten largest source markets,there are positive but modest increases fromGermany(+1.5%),the USA(+2.5%),France(+2%),Italy(+3%)and Japan(+8%).More hotel guests but rates still under pressureThe worlds hotels and accommodation industry will see a good recovery this year involume terms but not quite return to growth yet,the World Travel Monitor resultsshowed.After a 7%drop in total room nights in 2009,volumes will rise 5%this year to5.7 billion nights.The key trend is that people are travelling again but taking shortertrips.Hotel prices are rising again as demand returns strongly but trends are verydivergent around the world,according hospitality research company STR Global.Roomyields(revenue per available room)are rising in Asia and improving in Europe after a 4,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011,sharp drop over the last two years,Konstanze Auernheimer,director of marketing&analysis,commented at the World Travel Monitor Forum.,Tourism to benefit from improving world economy in 2011,Looking ahead to 2011,good prospects for the world economy next year and beyondwill be a major driver of growth for tourism.The world economy will grow 4.8%thisyear followed by 4.2%in 2011 and 4.7%in 2012,according to Germanys respectedIFO Institute.“The world economy is on the brink of a consolidated upswing,”DrGernot Nerb,IFOs director of industry research,told Pisa participants.,World economic growth is being driven by Asia(mostly China and India)and LatinAmerica,the economics expert said.“Emerging countries will contribute about twothirds of world economic growth this year,”Nerb said.In contrast,US GDP will grow2.7%this year but slow to 1.9%in 2011,according to the Q3,2010 IFO forecasts.“Western Europe is improving but there are big differences from country to country,”he noted.Germany is“a front-runner”with 3.7%GDP growth this year and a further2.2%next year.“I hope Germany can be a small locomotive alongside China as the biglocomotive,”Nerb commented.The German outbound travel market should profit“over-proportionately”from higher private consumption levels in 2011 thanks to thesustained upturn,lower unemployment and less job insecurity,he predicted.In contrast,the UK and France might see only very low growth in 2010 and 2011,Nerb predicted.International tourism growth of 3-5%in 2011,International tourism is now predicted to increase in the 3-5%range next year,according to IPKs World Travel Monitor and UNWTO forecasts.IPKs Global TravelConfidence Indicator lies at 103 points for 2011,indicating 3%to 5%growth in worldoutbound travel.The main drivers will be the improving world economy and low faresfrom budget airlines while safety and environmental concerns are not expected toimpact significantly.Similarly,the UNWTO now forecasts growth of 4-5%ininternational arrivals for 2011,which would put the sector back at the long-termgrowth rate of 4%recorded between 2000 and 2009.Air passenger volumes,according to Boeing,are likely to rise about 5%in 2011.,5,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011,The World Travel Monitor,based on half a million representative interviews a year,covers 61 leading outbound markets that represent 85%of the worlds travel to alldestinations worldwide.The World Travel Monitor is composed of the European TravelMonitor,the Arabian Travel Monitor,the Asian Travel Monitor and the American TravelMonitor,and is produced by IPK International,with headquarters in Munich.,6,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011Section B:European travel trendsEurope recovers despite turbulenceEuropeans have dusted off the Icelandic ash cloud and are travelling again this year.Butthey are shortening their trips and cutting down on spending.There are wide variationsboth between individual source markets and among European destinations,however.A year of stabilisationThe number of trips taken by Europeans rose 1%from January to August this year butthe numbers of room nights dropped 2%and spending was 3%lower,according to theEuropean Travel Monitor.Thanks to slightly higher growth expected this autumn,IPKpredicts growth of 1-2%for the European outbound market for the full year,making2010 into“a year of stabilisation”.Short-haul travel to European destinations isstagnating but long-haul travel is growing well at 5%.This is reflected in a 2%drop incar-based travel but a 2%rise in air travel.Water-based travel is continuing to boomwith a 10%rise for cruise and other ships.At the same time,Europeans are taking shorter trips,IPK figures for the first eightmonths of the year show.The average length of stay declined 7%to 8 nights,with a10%rise in the number of short trips(1-3 nights).In parallel,Europeans are spendingless on their holidays.Spending per trip dropped 4%to 874.Total travel spending byEuropeans will thus be lower this year than in 2009.Ups and downs for outbound marketsThere are wide variations in terms of major outbound markets,however,the EuropeanTravel Monitor showed.The British market is trailing badly with a 6%decline andGermany is stagnating with 0%growth.France,Spain and Italy have low growth of 2-4%but the Nordic markets are stronger with 5-8%growth.Destination winners with growth of over 8%from Europe include Germany,Netherlands,Egypt and China but countries with stagnantor lower European visitor numbers include theUK,Spain,Greece and the USA.Reflecting thisyears uncertain market,late bookings soaredthis year,with a 25%increase in bookingsmade less than one week before departure.,The number of Europeans booking travel onthe internet rose 17%and is now approachingthe 50%level,according to the survey.,The European Travel Monitor Trend Survey 1-8/2010,based on 100,000 representative interviews,covers 12major markets that represent 65%of European outbound,Mixed outlook for 2011Looking ahead to 2011,the IPK Travel Confidence Index lies at 101 points for Europe,indicating 1%to 2%growth next year.Most optimistic for 2011 are Russians,Austrian,Swedes and Belgians while Germans and British are the least confident among major 7,WorldTravelTrendsReport2010/2011,outbound markets.The financial crisis will continue to impact the travel behaviour of65%of Europeans next year.The largest proportion(44%)p