德国银行买方分析.ppt
Session 39The“Buy side”Perspective An Analysts View of Financial Disclosure,Wayde Bendus,Vice President,Deutsche Bank,Why are pensions still a relevant concern for the street?,Underlying growth in pension benefit liabilities has been approximately 4.25%,before consideration for changes in discount ratesFunded positions have very likely deteriorated in 2004Despite the recent rise in short-term rates,long-term rates have stabilized over the past yearLabor unions are aggressive protectors of benefits,even in highly distressed industriesHeath care and wage inflation have been far outpacing overall inflation,increasing the burden of OPEB liabilitiesBenefit pay outs are growing and have a significant impact on plan asset levelsbleed rate have been a significant offset to recent asset returns and employer contributionsMany companies have yet to address under funded pensions on a global basisdiffering rules on funding requirementsPotential changes in accounting and ERISA rules could impact how companies manage their pension plansAsset allocation is highly geared towards equity investments,which will result in significant volatility in funding positions,Average S&P 500 pension plan,Pension plan assets improved due to on average 19%market returns and higher employer contributions in 2003Pension liabilities increased due to accumulation of new benefits and lower discount rates,Source:DB,Company reports,FactSet,Average PBO and FVA for the S&P 500,Average Funding for the S&P 500,Average Assumption Used for the S&P 500,Average S&P 500 pension plan(contd),Aggregate pension funding improved moderately in 2003 to approximately 87%from 82%in 2002Under funded plans improved to 82%from 78%The aggregated under funded position for the S&P 500 was approximately$170bnunder funded plans were approximately$192bn,Source:DB,Company reports,FactSet,Aggregate and Under FundedFunding Position for the S&P 500,Year over Year Change in Distribution of Funding Levels for the S&P 500,Aggregate and Under FundedFunding Level for the S&P 500,GM Case Study,GMs US pension plans were fully funded following its$18.6bn debt financed fundingNon-US plans were under funded by$7.5bnOPEBs represented a very large liability and grew by over$20.9bn in 2003,GM Case Study(contd),(1)US plans only,Asset returns and employer contributions on pension plans totaled$33.2bn yet the under funded status was only reduced by$18.0bnLower discount rates and higher benefit pay outs eroded a significant portion of the gainsHigh benefit pay outs,strong labor unions and rising benefit costs,in a market environment that is producing limited returns,will very likely take their toll on equity valuations for companies like GM over the longer term,Funding Strategies,Funding with company stock Valuation analysis,Assumptions:Shares outstanding:100mmCurrent Stk Price:$50Current EPS:$5.00Expected return:8.50%Tax Rate:40.0%Cost of funds:0.00%Contribution:$100mm,Valuation analysis:,Pension Contribution:_Expected Return:_EBIT_Interest Cost_PBT_Book Taxes_Net Income_Total New Shares:_Total New Net Income:_New EPS:_New Stock Price:_,Funding with cash Valuation analysis,Assumptions:Shares outstanding:100mmCurrent Stk Price:$50Current EPS:$5.00Expected return:8.50%Tax Rate:40.0%Cost of funds:6.00%Contribution:$100mm,Valuation analysis:,Pension Contribution:_Expected Return:_EBIT_Interest Cost_PBT_Book Taxes_Net Income_Total Shares out:_Total New Net Income:_New EPS:_New Stock Price:_,Funding with company stock Valuation analysis,Assumptions:Shares outstanding:100mmCurrent Stk Price:$50Current EPS:$5.00Expected return:8.50%Tax Rate:40.0%Cost of funds:0.00%Contribution:$100mm,Valuation analysis:,Pension Contribution:_Expected Return:_EBIT_Interest Cost_PBT_Book Taxes_Net Income_Total New Shares:_Total New Net Income:_New EPS:_New Stock Price:_,$100.00mm,8.50,8.50,0.00,8.50,-3.40,5.10mm,102.0mm,$505.1mm,$4.95,$49.50,Funding with cash Valuation analysis,Assumptions:Shares outstanding:100mmCurrent Stk Price:$50Current EPS:$5.00Expected return:8.50%Tax Rate:40.0%Cost of funds:6.00%Contribution:$100mm,Valuation analysis:,Pension Contribution:_Expected Return:_EBIT_Interest Cost_PBT_Book Taxes_Net Income_Total Shares out:_Total New Net Income:_New EPS:_New Stock Price:_,$100.00mm,8.50,8.50,-6.00,2.50,-1.00,1.50mm,100.0mm,$501.5mm,$5.02,$50.15,
