香港第三次整体交通规划(英文).docx

1.INTRODUCTION1.1 In the past 10 years (1988-98), Hong Kong's population has increased from 5.7 million to 6.8 million and GDP per capita has increased by 20% in real terms. This socio-economic growth, together with the rapid expansion of Hong Kong's port and airport facilities and increase in cross boundary traffic, have placed tremendous demands on transport infrastructure. Despite this, transport systems of Hong Kong have coped remarkably well with such demands. The majority of the population enjoy high levels of mobility and traffic speeds in most areas are at acceptable levels. 1.2 This success has been achieved through improving transport infrastructure, expanding and improving public transport, and managing road use. These principles, coupled with proper land-use planning, have formed the foundation of Hong Kong's transport policy and have been applied in response to changing opportunities and constraints. The First and Second Comprehensive Transport Studies, completed in 1976 and 1989 respectively, have formed the backbone of Hong Kong's transport infrastructure and policy development. 1.3 However, Hong Kong is a dynamic city, with continuous changes in economic growth and development, technology, public demands and aspirations. Population is forecast to continue growing at a fast pace and cross boundary activity is also expected to increase. These developments will continue to place further pressure on Hong Kong's transport infrastructure. If mobility is to be maintained, these demands need to be accommodated in some way. However, new infrastructure is becoming increasingly expensive and difficult to construct in Hong Kong's unique geographic situation. 1.4 Recent years have seen greater public awareness and concern over the deteriorating environmental conditions, which have accompanied the growth over the past decade. Although transport is only one of the contributing factors of environmental pollution, there is an increasing need for transport policy and planning to better reflect this concern. 1.5 As a result, the Third Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-3) was commissioned in August 1997, with the objective of formulating a transport development framework that would contribute to more sustainable development in Hong Kong. In the transport context, this objective requires the balancing of a system that maintains and improves mobility with the adverse impacts this can have on the environment, and allows continued economic and social development. By emphasising the use of public transport, in particular railway, enhancing the integration of different transport modes, and making use of new technologies, a framework has been developed that provides mobility in a sustainable development context. Providing mobility in a sustainable development context 1.6 As with previous CTS studies, CTS-3 has developed transport policies together with a set of infrastructure requirements and associated programmes for implementation. In addition, CTS-3 has recommended to develop a review system to ensure that the need, timing, scope and priorities of the relevant highway projects are re-assessed before implementation in light of the latest development. 2. BACKGROUND TO CTS-3Developments since CTS-22.1 CTS-3 is the third comprehensive transport study. The first study, which was completed in 1976, resulted in the decision to construct the MTR system and the realisation that it would be necessary to restrain private car travel. In 1986-89, the Second Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-2) formulated a transport framework for the territory up to the year 2001 for a population forecast of 6.3 million. In view of the considerable uncertainties of transport planning at the time, in particular the future location of the territory's airport, the study recommended that the implementation of the strategy should be monitored and updated on a regular basis. Accordingly, from 1990 to 1993, the Updating of the Second Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-2 Update) was undertaken to review the CTS-2 framework taking into account the relocation of the airport to Chek Lap Kok, Metroplan, and various reclamation studies. The planning horizon was also extended to 2011 for a population forecast of 6.6 million. 2.2 CTS-2 was a key study in the development of Hong Kong's transport policy and systems. Its recommendations formed the basis of the 1990 White Paper "Moving into the 21st Century". Many of the road and rail infrastructure recommendations of the White Paper have now been implemented, as shown in Table 2.1. The broad policy directions have also been generally maintained. Table 2.1 Progress on Major Infrastructure Recommendations of 1990 White Paper   Recommendation   Progress   Highway Projects    North Lantau Expressway and Lantau Fixed CrossingRoute 9 from Tsing Yi to Chek Lap Kok completed and open to traffic in 1997.Route 3 to provide a major north-south link between the boundary and Hong Kong Island Completed and open to traffic in phases between 1997 and 1998.Hung Hom BypassOpened in 1999.Route 7 Kennedy Town to Aberdeen Land unavailable planned completion date 2010.Central Wan Chai Bypass and Island Eastern Corridor LinkLand unavailable planned completion date 2010.Route 16 between Sha Tin and West Kowloon Now part of Route 9. Detailed design currently in progress with construction expected to be completed by 2005.Railway Projects   Airport Railway/Tung Chung LineCompleted in 1998.MTR Tseung Kwan O ExtensionUnder construction, due to be completed in 2002.West Rail (Phase I) connecting NWNT and Tsuen WanUnder construction, due to be completed in 2003.2.3 CTS-2 and the subsequent 1990 White Paper laid out broad transport policy directions which have helped keep Hong Kong moving. However, Hong Kong has developed more rapidly than was envisaged in CTS-2. For example, the population forecast for 2001 at the time of CTS-2 was 6.3 million. This figure was actually reached in 1996 and the forecast for 2001 is now close to 7 million. The upper limit of population tested during CTS-3 is 10.1 million in 2016. To plan for a higher population, several major planning studies have been carried out in recent years. The most important of these is the Territorial Development Strategy Review (TDSR), which was completed in 1996. Other key studies include the First and Second Railway Development Studies (RDS), and the Crosslinks Further Study1. (Note: 1. The Study is formally known as Feasibility Study for Additional Cross-border Links)2.4 To cope with these changes in our future development, we need a comprehensive transport study to help produce a cohesive and comprehensive transport plan. CTS-3 extends the planning horizon to 2016, taking into account a wider range of considerations to meet the changing aspirations of society, especially the effect of transport on the environment and the need to integrate land-use, transport and environmental planning. It aims to produce a framework for developing a strategy that not only meets the traditional objective of maintaining mobility but does so in an environmentally acceptable and sustainable way. Existing Situation2.5 CTS-3 adopted 1997 as the base year to which future conditions are compared. Despite rapid development, average 1997 traffic speeds are comparable to those 10 years ago (about 26-30 km/h in heavily urbanised areas and 32 km/h elsewhere in the peak hour), testimony to the success of Hong Kong's transport planning and an expanding infrastructure programme. Furthermore, there have been considerable improvements to public transport services, including a more comprehensive railway network and provision of parking at railway stations. (Public transport is estimated to carry around 90% of all person trips in 1997. The number of observed public transport boardings is about 11 million per day). However, due to the lack of progress on some of the projects recommended by CTS-2, and because of faster than expected population and economic growth, some areas suffer from severe congestion (e.g. Central, Wan Chai, Causeway Bay, Lion Rock Tunnel and the Cross Harbour Tunnel). Sections of the MTR system also suffer from overcrowding at peak times (e.g. along the Nathan Road Corridor before opening of Tung Chung Line in 1998). Assumptions and Forecasts2.6 The demand for transport services is closely related to Hong Kong's development pattern. As development types or intensities change, transport system improvements may be needed to better link areas of growth with the remainder of the region. CTS-3 uses estimation procedures refined from CTS-2 and its Update that determine passenger and goods travel demands based on the distribution of development types and intensities within the region, taking into consideration the changed trip making behaviour observed in the course of validation of the transport model against 1997 traffic conditions. 2.7 The future is driven by too many variables to be accurately predicted. It is difficult to foresee events that will occur or conditions that will exist in 15-20 years time. CTS-3 has therefore adopted an approach different from CTS-2. Instead of relying on historical trends, CTS-3 examined a wide range of development scenarios incorporating assumptions defining the key determinants of future travel demand. The value of using different scenarios is the contrasting pictures they paint and the diverse implications they suggest. The intention was to address an envelope of assumptions and identify alternative (related to low, medium and high travel demand growth) combinations of infrastructure investments and demand management policies. As Hong Kong moves forward, and levels of economic and other developments are better determined, Government can use the scenarios and packages to build a robust and flexible strategy that best meets transport mobility, economic, financial, budgetary, social, environmental and public acceptance objectives. 2.8 Several areas of uncertainty exist that were considered in defining an envelope of study assumptions. These include growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, private vehicle fleet, goods vehicle fleet and cross boundary traffic. 2.9 Gross Domestic Product - GDP growth provides an indication of the increase that can be expected in private vehicle ownership and goods/commercial vehicle movements. GDP forecasts also indirectly affect several of the other variables used in the demand forecasting process. When real increases in GDP are experienced personal incomes increase. These increases have an effect on the transportation choices people make in meeting their day to day travel needs. 2.10 Three GDP growth scenarios were developed. These are illustrated in Figure 2.1. These scenarios were based on the best possible estimations available and with Government inputs. Future growth rates will likely fall within the envelope of these estimations. The low scenario represents a 'what-if' very low growth rate assumption. The medium reflects the central assumption of likely GDP growth, based on past trends and future economic outlook. The high estimate is based on past trends with only short term adjustment in response to the current economic down turn. However, it must be recognised that long term GDP growth rate is difficult to forecast. 2.11 The forecasts range from an average annual (from 1997-2016) growth rate of 2.4% for the low scenario, 4.4% for the medium scenario to 4.9% in the high scenario. Average household income (in real terms) is forecast to remain constant (to 1997 levels) under the low GDP growth assumption. Under the medium and high assumptions household incomes would increase above 30% by year 2016. 2.12 Population - Growth in population translates directly to an increase in transport demand. The related increases in employment and students result in more trips to and from work and school. Shopping and recreational trips also increase. 2.13 As shown in Figure 2.2, CTS-3 considered three scenarios with 2016 populations ranging from 8.2 to 10.1 million, with the land-use planning data prepared by the Planning Department. The low development assumptions (identified as Scenario I) were prepared based on projections developed by the Census and Statistics Department and assume a 2016 population of about 8.2 million. Under the study's medium development assumptions (identified as Scenario II) population is expected to grow to about 8.9 million by 2016 and takes into account the estimated capacity of the existing, known and planned sites for meeting Government's housing target. The high population forecast of 10.1 million (identified as Scenario III) is intended to represent a long term development scenario for Hong Kong which may eventually materialise beyond 2016. 2.14 Ownership and Use of Private Vehicles - A key determinant of travel demand (particularly road usage) is the extent to which Hong Kong people own and use private vehicles. People with access to private vehicles make more trips and are less likely to use public transport. Both of these car ownership effects increase road usage. 2.15 Stated simply, private vehicle ownership and usage increases produce an increased level of road congestion, a greater need for new road infrastructure and an increased burden of air pollutants on the environment. However, private cars often provide a higher level of travel comfort and convenience that the public finds desirable and valuable. As incomes increase more families will find car ownership affordable and will choose to use their disposable income to purchase cars. 2.16 Apart from the uncertainties in long term GDP (and therefore household income), there are also other constraints on private vehicle ownership (related to environmental issues for instance) that may cause Government to manage the ownership and use of private vehicles. 2.17 CTS-3 considered three alternative private vehicle growth rate assumptions. The high scenario relates private vehicle growth to GDP and ownership costs, a methodology which has been generally well-proven worldwide, and was found to perform well in Hong Kong in estimating private vehicle fleet size in the past two decades. This scenario represents the possible fleet sizes if no additional restraints are placed on car ownership and if economic growth extends through the planning horizon. The medium scenario was taken from the TDSR and it reflects a possible fleet size considering the geographic constraints of Hong Kong. The low scenario assumes that private vehicles increase at the same rate as population. Figure 2.3 shows the estimated fleet sizes under these three growth scenarios. 2.18 Goods Vehicle Usage - The ongoing restructuring of Hong Kong's industrial and commercial base imposes an additional degree of uncertainty on forecasting of goods vehicle usage, over and