家具行业季度研究报告(英文版).docx

Report On Chinese Furniture IndustryElectronic Commerce Institute of Shangyou InformationNJU Data Application GroupJuly, 2010Summary of the Research Report on the Furniture IndustryThis study aims to the participants of the Chinese furniture industry, to provide them accurate and comprehensive information of furniture industry, which would be helpful for their decision-making.This report was 27 pages long, including 1.3 million words, 5 tables and 19 charts. It has an in-depth analysis of the operating environment, financial situation, the key enterprises of the industry and the upstream and downstream industries of the second quarter in 2010, based primarily on the State Statistical Bureau, China Economic Monitoring Center, Development Research Centre of the State Council, the association of Chinese furniture industry, the General Administration of Customs, wind database, Investment Analysis System of txsec. Besides, the report also investigated problems and development trends of Chinese furniture industry and a detailed and prudent forecast was given on the Chinese furniture industry in the third quarter, which was based on the current state of development and influencing factors of the furniture industry.The research conclusion þ From January to June 2010, both production and sales of Chinese furniture industry were booming. The output was 283 million and the sales value was 153.71 billion RMB. The year on year growth rate of production and sales continued to rise and both were over 20%. The import and export also had a dramatic growth, with a growth of 47.74 % and 33% respectively, but the growth of import narrowed while that of export increased steadily, however, the former was still higher than the latter.þ From January to May 2010, the sales revenue and total profits of Chinese furniture industry were 150.54 billion RMB and 7.32 billion RMB, with a growth of 30.56% and 60.14%. In the second quarter, the solvency of the furniture industry has improved slightly, and the profitability was significantly enhanced while the inventory and accounts receivable were under effective control, besides, the development capacity has been improving over the months. So, a vigorous recovery of the whole industry is virtually assured. In particular, the wooden furniture industry excelled metal furniture industry in the solvency, operational abilities and the development capacity, but the metal furniture industry was slightly better in profitability.þ As to the three listed companies of furniture manufacturing, the S * ST Guangming was in the proceeding of restructuring while the Guangdong Yihua Timber and the United States grams had a good performance. The Guangdong Yihua Timber intended to expand its market from abroad to home, while the United States grams took efforts to build furniture chain in domestic. In strong contrast with their business, in the second quarter, affected by the sharp fall of the market, the share price of the two listed companies both declined more than 30%, underperforming the whole plate.þ The natural disasters in domestic and trade protectionism by foreign countries made the wood price go up over the past few months. As the material prices rising, the furniture industry facing a big pressure. Under pressure of the “Real Deal”, the commercial housing turnover of the first and second tier cities had a sharp decline of nearly 50%, which was probably to cause a shrinking demand of the furniture.þ The words such as "high" and "growth" were widely used to describe the furniture industry in 2010, however, in the short term, the appreciation of RMB, the increase of raw material prices and trade protectionism are the main obstacle of development, so the industry of the next quarter was predicted cautiously.CatalogThe research conclusion31. Basic Information Analysis of Furniture Manufacturing51.1 Basic Knowledge of Furniture Manufacturing51.2 Furniture Manufacturing: Environmental Analysis62. Sector Economic Operation Analysis92.1 Industry degree of Furniture Manufacturing: Ringing Up92.2 Production and Marketing of Furniture Manufacturing: continuing to grow102.3 Comparatively Rapid Growth of Furniture Import and Export132.4 Comparatively Slight Growth of Ex-factory Price153. Financial Analysis of Furniture Industry163.1 Analysis of the Solvency163.2 Analysis of the Profitability173.3 Analysis of the operation ability183.4 Analysis of the development ability194. Analysis of listed companies of the furniture industry204.1 The overall analysis of listed companies204.2 Guangdong Yihua Timber214.3 The United States grams224.4 The S * ST Guangming235. Analysis of related Industry245.1 The timber industry245.2 Real estate industry256. The main problems of China furniture industry266.1 The quality of the products should be improved urgently276.2 Product homogeneity and lack of brand building276.3 Lots of trade barriers276.4 The second-hand furniture market is not perfect286.5 Difference of the business background is the main brake on more merger activity287. The trend and forecasting of Chinese furniture industry in late 2010287.1 The development trend of furniture manufacturing of the second half of 2010287.2 Forecast of Chinese furniture industry in the third quarter of 2010298. Events of the Industry30Catalog of charts and tablesFigure 1: Share of the world furniture production7Figure 2: Boom index of Furniture Manufacturing9Figure 3: Output and Growth rate of Furniture Manufacturing10Figure 4: Comparative growth of different kinds of furniture products11Figure 5: Regional distribution of furniture production from January-April of 201011Figure 6: Monthly & Accumulative Sales Value of Furniture Manufacturing12Figure 7: Output value of furniture from January- April of 2010（according to variety）13Figure 8: Monthly export of furniture Manufacturing13Figure 9: Monthly import of furniture manufacturing14Figure 10: PPI、CPI & price index of furniture industry（the same period last year=100）15Figure 11: Retail price index in cities and rural areas16Figure 12: assets and liabilities rateof furniture industry16Figure 13: deficit range of furniture industry17Figure 14: Receivable growth of furniture industry on year-on-year basis19Figure 15: Revenue growth of furniture industry on year-on-year basis19Figure 16: Profit growth of furniture industry on year-on-year basis19Figure 17: The stock price of furniture industry in Q2 200721Figure 18: Monthly imports of wood from Jan, 2009-Apri, 201024Figure 19:National Housing boom index from Frb,2009-Jun,2010（the same period last year=100）25Table 1: Development review of Chinese furniture industry6Table 2: Chinas major export destinations of furniture14Table 3: Pre-tax profit margin of furniture industry18Table 4: The indicators of listed companies of furniture industry in Q1 201020Table 5: Forecast of furniture market in Q3 2010301. Basic Information Analysis of Furniture Manufacturing 1.1 Basic Knowledge of Furniture Manufacturing1.1.1 Definition & Major ProductsAccording to the definition in “National Economy Classification Of Occupation”, Furniture Manufacturing, as this article mentions, includes all the fabrication of distinct furniture which is made of woods, metals, plastics, bamboos and rattans, and can be applied in houses, hotels, offices, schools, restaurants, hospitals, theaters, gardens, planes, and automotive vehicle, for the function of sitting, lying, leaning, storing, and spacing. Due to different raw materials, Furniture Manufacturing is divided into Wooden Furniture Manufacturing, Metal Furniture Manufacturing, Bamboo & Rattan Furniture Manufacturing, Plastic Furniture Manufacturing and other kinds of Furniture Manufacturing. 1.1.2. Development ReviewIn the past few years, furniture production in China tends to develop rapidly. In 2002, the total was 46.83 billion RMB, and it reached to 340.91 billion RMB in 2009, the annual developing rate of which was 32.8%, far faster than the GDP development. At the same time, import and export trade shared the similar developing trend. Table 1: Development review of Chinese furniture industryYearValue ofProductionYear on year growth rate of Production ValueExport Valueyear on year growth rate of Export ValueImports Valueyear on year growth rate of Import Value（billion RMB）（%）(billion dollars)(%)（10000 dollars）（%）2002468.3119.0254.17351.42-5.742003664.9323.6673.3335.45.7537.112004947.1933.59103.5339.37.2626.2820051,386.3728.14137.6732.986.84-5.7420061,850.8727.09174.6526.888.0217.1420072,416.0127.81226.1729.511.0437.6820082,921.0220.51275.8321.9412.2210.720093,409.1113.5259.58-5.9812.976.222010, 1-51,571.2529.5129.5926.16.3647.741.2 Furniture Manufacturing: Environmental Analysis1.2.1 General Political Environment(1) Tax-refund Policy: Ensuring Competitiveness of Furniture ManufacturingTo solve the negative influence of financial crisis, Chinese government has released a series of policies, aiming to support the stable development of foreign trade. From August, 2008 to June, 2009, it raised the export tax rebate rate of some commodities seven times, among which tax rebate rate of furniture has rose to 15% for the previous 9%; and the policy was trying to stop the rapid decline in foreign trade because of international financial crisis, the essential principle of which was assisting export enterprises to reduce cost and ensure their international market share.(2) Building materials to rural areas: triggering new growth powerAt the outset of 2010, “building materials to rural areas” was written in “Central No. 1 Document”, which was one of important measures conducted by Chinese government concerning to increase domestic demand after the policies of “home appliances to the countryside” and “car to the countryside”. As some statistics show, “building materials to rural areas” might increase consumption demand about 1 hundred billion RMB in the rural.(3) New policies of property market: probably harming Furniture Manufacturing From April, 16, 2010, Chinese government has unveiled several new policies on housing successively, which is designed to keep down the overhigh housing price in some cities. Under the combined policies, homebuyers with rigid demand may be beneficial. However, if Real Estate was slumping or even crashed, Furniture Manufacturing, as the downstream industry, might suffer a lot.(4). Restriction policy to Resource-based enterprisesOn the grounds of “Commodity Catalogue Prohibited for Processing Trade” which is unveiled by Commerce Department, General Customs Administration, state environmental protection administration (SEPA) and other four departments, boards, and furniture made of domestic wood are prohibited to be exported. It would be good for controlling furniture export, upgrading furniture manufacturing, and the further healthy development of furniture export. But it might make the furniture enterprise fall into the difficult position.1.2.2. International MarketFigure 1: Share of the world furniture productionThe total value of furniture output in 2009 was 376 billion dollars, seven main industrialized countries (ranked in accordance with the furniture production value: America, Italy, Germany, Japan, France, Canada, and Britain) shared 42.3% of the whole value; high-income countries held 58%; low and middle income countries occupied 42%. Furniture production value in China, Poland and Vietnam improved swiftly, among which China shared 20% of the total value, ranking the first in the world.The world imports and exports of furniture has following characteristics: total export volume of major exporting countries of furniture, Italy, China, Germany, Poland, and Canada, takes up about 32% of the world furniture export; American, European Union(EU), and Japan are major importing countries, whose importing quantum takes up about 57% of the whole.In the competition of world furniture market, Chinese furniture products face the direct rivalry from developed furniture manufacturing countries, like Italy, Germany, and Canada. Compared to those countries, product design and quality of Chinese furniture products exists heavy disparity, but the price of Chinese furniture is much lower.In the future international market, Chinese furniture will confront more competition from developing countries like Poland, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico. Those countries not only have abundant forest resource, but enjoy the same cheap labor resource like China. In the competition of global furniture market, those countries will be powerful rivals of Chinese furniture manufacturing, by introducing foreign capital and self-development accumulation.1.2.3. Domestic Market EnvironmentAccording to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), it was preliminary calculated that GDP was 17283.98 billion RMB in the first half of this year, which nominally increased by 16.7% compared to that of 2009. Calculated at comparable price, GDP raised by 11.1% from a year ago, 3.7% faster than that of last year. Hereinto, value added of primary industry was 1336.7 billion RMB, increased by 3.6%; secondary industry was 8583 billion RMB, increased by 13.2%; tertiary industry was 7364.28 billion RMB, increased by 9.6%. Statistics shows that upward trend of national economy is gradually enhancing, and the overall situation is positive and satisfied. Since 2008, financial crisis and debt crisis emerged successively, and appreciations of RMB and trade protectionism were on the rise. Because of those factors, furniture export enterprise suffered a serious defeat. Some of them ended up in bankrupt, and some seized the lifeblood of domestic market.With a series of stimulating economic policies, domestic market of furniture manufacturing maintained steady growth.2. Sector Economic Operation AnalysisIn 2009, Chinese furniture market was subjected to the damage of inflation, financial downturn, and property market swing, so both of its export and domestic market slid backward. In 2009, China is in post-crisis era. From kinds of indicators in the first half of this year, furniture manufacturing is recovering gradually, and operating stably.2.1 Industry degree of Furniture Manufacturing: Ringing UpFigure 2: Boom index of Furniture ManufacturingIn the second quarter of 2010, national enterprise booming index was 135.9, 3 higher than the first quarter; industrial enterprise booming index was 133.6, 3.5 higher than last quarter. Since the fourth quarter of 2009, booming index of