项目管理双语ppt课件第六章成本管理.ppt

Resource PlanningCost EstimatingCost BudgetingCost Control,Processes required to ensure the project is completed within the approved budget,Chapter 6 Project Cost Management,Cost Management,7.1ResourcePlanning,Planning,7.3Cost Budgeting,7.4CostControl,Controlling,7.2Cost Estimating,Resource Planning,Determining physical resources needed (i.e., material, equipment, and people) and what quantities of each should be used and when they would be needed to perform project activities,Resource Planning,Inputs Scope statementWBSResource pool descriptionOrganizational policiesHistorical informationActivity durations estimates,Tools & TechniquesExpert judgmentAlternatives identificationPM software,OutputsResource requirements,Inputs,Work breakdown structure (WBS) Identifies the project elements that require resources Historical information Used to identify the types of resources that were required for similar work on previous projects Scope statement Contains project justification and the project objectives, which need to be consideredResource pool description Description of resources available, if necessary, to work on a projectOrganizational policies Of the performing organization, regarding staffing and the rental and purchase of supplies and equipmentActivity duration estimates,Resource Planning,Tools & Techniques,Expert judgment Expertise, provided by any group or individual, used to assess the inputs to this processOther units within organizationConsultantsProfessional and technical associationsIndustry groupsAlternatives identification PM software Used to organize resource pools, define resource availabilities and rates, and define resource calendars,Resource Planning,Outputs,Resource requirements Description of the types (e.g., skill levels) and numbers of resources required by each element of the WBS,Resource Planning,Cost Estimating,Difference between cost estimating and pricing:Cost estimating: Assessing how much it will cost the organization to provide the product or servicePricing: Assessing how much the organization will charge for the product or serviceCost estimating also includes identifying and considering cost alternatives,Process of developing an approximation (or estimate) for the cost of the resources necessary to complete the project activities,Cost Estimating,Inputs WBSResource requirementsResource ratesActivity duration estimatesEstimating publicationsHistorical informationChart of accountsRisks,Tools & TechniquesAnalogous estimatingParametric modelingBottom-up estimatingComputerized toolsOther cost estimating methods,OutputsCost estimatesSupporting detailCost management plan,Inputs,WBS Used to organize the cost estimates and to ensure that the cost of all identified work has been estimatedResource requirements Resource rates Unit rates for each resource Activity duration estimates Affects cost estimates if project budget includes an allowance for the cost of financing (i.e., interest)Chart of accounts Coding structure used by the organization to report financial information. Cost estimates must be assigned to the correct accounting category.,Cost Estimating,Inputs (cont.),Historical information Information on the cost of resourcesProject files Records of previous project results that are detailed enough to aid in developing cost estimatesCommercial cost-estimating databases Historical information available commerciallyProject team knowledgeEstimating publications Commercially available data on cost estimatingRisks Since risks can have a significant impact on cost, the effect of risk on the cost estimates for each activity must be considered,Cost Estimating,Tools & Techniques,Analogous estimating (Expert judgment) Used to estimate total project costs if there is a limited amount of detailed information Parametric modeling Using project characteristics (or parameters) in a mathematical model to predict costs (e.g., price per square foot)Bottom-up estimating Estimating the cost of individual work items and then rolling up the costs to arrive at a project totalComputerized tools PM software and spreadsheets,Cost Estimating,Outputs,Cost estimates Quantitative assessments of the cost of resources (e.g., units of currency or staff hours) Types of estimatesOrder of magnitude (-25% / +75%)Budget estimate (-10% / +25%)Definitive estimate(-5% / +10%)Supporting detailDescription of estimated scope of workDocumentation of the basis for the estimateDocumentation of any assumptions madeRange of possible results,Cost Estimating,Outputs (cont.),Cost management planDescribes how cost variances will be managedPart of the overall project plan,Cost Estimating,Cost Budgeting,Allocating the overall cost estimate to individual activities or work packages, in order to establish a cost baseline for measuring project performance,Cost Budgeting,Inputs Cost estimatesWBSProject scheduleRisk management plan,Tools & TechniquesCost-budgetingtools and techniques,OutputsCost baseline,Inputs,Cost estimates WBS Identifies the project elements to which the costs will be allocatedProject schedule Used to assign costs to project elements for the time period when costs will be incurredRisk management plan Often includes cost contingency, which can be determined on the basis of the expected accuracy of the estimate,Cost Budgeting,Tools & Techniques,Cost budgeting tools and techniquesAnalogous estimatingParametric modelingBottom-up estimatingComputerized tools,Cost Budgeting,Outputs,Cost baseline Time phased budget that will be used to measure and monitor the cost performance of the project,Cost Budgeting,Cost Control,Includes:Monitoring cost performance to detect variances from the planEnsuring that all appropriate changes are recordedPreventing incorrect, inappropriate, or unauthorized changesInforming the appropriate stakeholders of authorized changesAnalyzing positive and negative variances and how they affect the other control processes,Influencing the factors that create changes to the cost baseline to ensure that changes are agreed uponDetermining that the cost baseline has changedManaging the actual changes when and as they occur,Cost Control,Inputs Cost baselinePerformance reportsChange requestsCost management plan,Tools & TechniquesCost change control systemPerformance measurementEVMAdditional planningComputerized tools,OutputsRevised cost estimatesBudget updatesCorrective actionEstimate at completionProject closeoutLessons learned,Inputs,Cost baselinePerformance reports Information on cost performanceChange requests Oral or written requests to change the budgetCost management plan,Cost Control,Tools & Techniques,Cost change control system Procedures used for making changes to the cost baselinePaperworkTracking systemApproval levelsPerformance measurement Assessment of the magnitude of any variation, the cause of the variance, and the corrective action needed,Cost Control,Tools & Techniques (cont.),Additional planning Changes may require new or revised cost estimates or an analysis of alternative approachesComputerized tools Used for tracking the value of planned costs compared to actual costs and for predicting the effects of cost changesEarned Value Management Continuously measuring project performance by relating the planned value, the earned value for work accomplished, and the actual costs incurred,Cost Control,Outputs,Revised cost estimatesBudget updatesCorrective actionEstimate at completion Forecast of most likely total project costs based on project performance and risk quantificationProject closeout Processes and procedures for closing or ending a projectLessons learned Documented causes of variances,Cost Control,Earned Value (EV),A method of measuring project performance by comparing the amount of work planned with that actually accomplished, in order to determine if cost and schedule performance are as planned,Cost Control,Scheduled Work,Planned Value (PV),Budgeted Cost ofWork Scheduled (BCWS),Work Accomplished,Earned Value (EV),Budgeted Cost ofWork Performed (BCWP),Actual Cost of Work Accomplished,Actual Costs (AC),Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP),Authorized Work,Budget at Completion,Same,Forecasted Cost,Estimate at Completion,Same,Work Variance,Schedule Variance,Same,Cost Variance,Cost Variance,Same,Completion Variance,Variance at Completion,Same,Cost Control,EV Terms,Control account Level of the WBS at which a budget is assigned and a control account manager (CAM) is given responsibility for delivering the itemCreate control accounts at the level that senior management wants to track cost and scheduleUse the responsibility assignment matrix (RAM) as a tool,Establishing Control Accounts,Cost Control,RAM The integration of the WBS and the OBS of a projectProper creation of the RAM results from locating the intersection of the OBS unit that is assigned responsibility for the work and the specific WBS element that defines the work to be performed,Responsibility Assignment Matrix,Cost Control,CA #1WBS Element:OBS Element:CAM: Budget:Schedule:,Control Account Example,1.1 FrameFrame ShopMr. I. M. Smart$ 125,000Jan - Jun 00,Cost Control,Control Account Managers,Receive work authorizationDevelop work and planning packagesAssign a budget and schedule for each work and planning packageBuild a baseline by summing the planned value (PV) for each reporting period,Cost Control,Planning PackagesFuture work that has not been planned in detail as work packages; Always scheduled to occur in the future,Work PackagesDetailed, short-span tasks or material items;Required to accomplish the CA objectives; Typically for the near term,Control Account Elements,Cost Control,Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB),The plan against which actual performance can be comparedBased on budgets assigned to scheduled segments of workBuild PMB by summing the PV for all control accounts, by reporting periodBudget at completion (BAC) Equal to the cumulative PV for the total project,Cost Control,Time-Phased Budget,Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB),BAC,Cost Control,Work schedule to be accomplished,Planned Value (PV),Cost Control,Budgeted value of completed or in-process work,Performance Measurement Baseline,0,10000,20000,30000,40000,50000,60000,70000,80000,JANUARY,FEBRUARY,MARCH,APRIL,MAY,JUNE,JULY,CURRENT,EV,PV,PV,EV,JANUARY,0,0,FEBRUARY,2500,3600,MARCH,8000,8000,APRIL,13000,10000,MAY,42000,38000,JUNE,62000,JULY,70700,Earned Value,Cost Control,Actual Costs (AC),Actual expenditures for completed or in-process work,Cost Control,PV,EV,AC,JANUARY,0,0,0,FEBRUARY,2500,3600,6000,MARCH,8000,8000,8000,APRIL,13000,10000,8000,MAY,42000,38000,48000,JUNE,62000,JULY,70700,Schedule Variance,Comparing the EV, the amount originally budgeted for the work that has been completed or is in-process, to the PV, the amount budgeted for the work that was planned to have been accomplishedSV = EV PVA negative result means less work has been performed than was planned,Cost Control,SV Example,PV = $42,000EV = $38,000AC = $48,000SV = EV PV = $38,000 $42,000 = - $4,000 SV% = SV / PV =- $4000 / $42,000 = - 0.095 = - 9.5%,Cost Control,Cost Variance,Comparing the amount originally budgeted for the work completed or in-process, the EV, to the actual costs of that work, the ACCV = EV ACA negative CV means more dollars were spent to accomplish the work than was planned,Cost Control,Cost Variance Example,PV = $42,000EV = $38,000AC = $48,000CV = EV - AC= $38,000 $48,000 = - $10,000 CV% = CV / EV= - $10,000 / $38,000= - 26%,Cost Control,Performance Indices,Dfn: Cost- and schedule-performance efficiency calculations; expressed in $Cost Performance Index (CPI) CPI = EV/ACSchedule Performance Index (SPI) SPI = EV/PV,Cost Control,CPI Example,PV = $42,000EV = $38,000AC = $48,000CPI = EV / AC= $38,000 / $48,000 = 0.79$0.79 worth of work was actually done for each $1.00 spent,Cost Control,SPI Example,PV = $42,000EV = $38,000AC = $48,000SPI = EV / PV= $38,000 / $42,000 = 0.90$0.90 worth of work has been done for each $1.00 worth of work that was planned to be done,Cost Control,Estimate at Completion (EAC),Dfn: The managements assessment of the cost of the project at completion After variance analysis, the estimated cost at completion is determined,Cost Control,EAC Example,One methodology: EAC = BAC / CPIBAC = $80,000CPI = 0.79EAC = $80,000 / 0.79 = $101,265,Cost Control,Variance at Completion,BAC = $80,000 EAC = $101,265VAC = BAC EAC = $80,000 $101,265 = -$21,265Based on past performance, project will exceed planned budget by $21,265,Cost Control,To Complete Performance Index (TCPI),Work Remaining / Cost RemainingTCPI = (BAC EV) / (EAC AC)= ($ 80,000 $ 38,000) / ($ 101,265 $ 48,000)= $ 42,000 / $ 53,265= .79,Cost Control,Earned Value Examples,PVEVAC$1$1$1On scheduleOn cost$2$2$1On scheduleUnder cost$1$1$2On scheduleOver cost$1$2$2Ahead of scheduleOn cost$1$2$3Ahead of scheduleOver cost$1$2$1Ahead of scheduleUnder cost$3$2$1Behind scheduleUnder cost$2$1$3Behind scheduleOver cost$2$1$1Behind scheduleOn cost,Cost Control,Example,PVEV ACEAC BAC 100125 75600 560125100 100850 800 75 75 75700560100 75 100570 600,Cost Control,Sample Cost Problem,BAC = $ 40kEV = $ 20kPV = $ 28kAC = $ 26k,Calculate% of Work Scheduled% of Budget Spent% of Work AccomplishedCost VarianceSchedule Variance,Cost Control,Sample Solution,Calculate% of Work ScheduledPV / BAC = $ 28K / $ 40K = 70 % of Budget SpentAC / BAC = $ 26K / $ 40K = 65 % of Work Accomplished EV / BAC = $ 20K / $ 40K = 50 %Cost VarianceEV AC = $ 20K $ 26K = - $ 6KSchedule Variance EV PV = $ 20K $ 28K = - $ 8K,Cost Control,Summary,Review Questions,Case 1,PV = $ 1,860EV = $ 1,860AC = $ 1,860,This is the ideal situation, where everything goes according to plan.,Case 2,PV = $ 1,900AC = $ 1,700,In this Case, without Earned Value measurements, it appears were in good shape. Expenditures are less than planned.,Spending Variance = - $ 200,Case 2,PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,700,But with EV measurements, we see.$400 worth of work is behind schedule in being completed; i.e., we are 21 percent behind where we planned to be.,SV = EV PV = - $ 400SV % = SV / PV x 100 = - 21 %,Case 2,PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,700,In addition, we can see.“Actuals” exceed “Value Earned” (EV), i.e., $1,500 worth of work was accomplished but it cost $1,700 to do so. We have a $200 cost overrun (i.e., 13% over budget) .,CV = EV AC = - $ 200CV % = CV / EV x 100 = - 13 %,Case 2,PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,700,This means only 79 cents worth of work was done for each $1.00 worth of work planned to be done. And, only 88 cents worth of work was actually done for each $1.00 spent,SPI = EV / PV = $ 0.79CPI = EV / AC = $ 0.88,Case 2,PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,700,This is the worst kind of scenario, where all performance indicators are negative.,SV = - $ 400; SPI = 0.79CV = - $ 200; CPI = 0.88,PV = $ 2,600EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200,In this case there is bad news and good news.,Case 3,PV = $ 2,600EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200,The bad news is that our work efficiency is a bit low; were gett