宏观经济学第二章ppt课件.ppt

The Data of Macroeconomics,2,Part B,2. Consumer Price Index (CPI),A measure of the overall level of pricesThe cost of livingUses: tracks changes in the typical households cost of livingadjusts many contracts for inflationallows comparisons of dollar amounts over time,CPI: China,Hong Kong,Macao,大陆：居民消费价格指数（CPI）数据来自中国统计年鉴2010；香港：数据来自香港政府统计处网站http:/www.censtatd.gov.hk ；澳门：数据来自澳门统计暨普查局网站 http:/www.dsec.gov.mo,思考美国,2.1 How to construct the CPI,1.Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumers “basket” of goods.2.Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basket3.CPI in any month equals,Exercise: Compute the CPI,Basket contains 20 pizzas and 10 compact discs.,prices:pizzaCDs2002$10$152003$11$152004$12$162005$13$15,For each year, computethe cost of the basketthe CPI (use 2002 as the base year)the inflation rate from the preceding year,Cost of Inflationbasket CPIrate2002$350100.0n.a.2003 370105.75.7%2004 400114.38.1%2005 410117.12.5%,Answers:,20 pizza 10 CDs cost2002$10 $15 $350 2003$11 $15 $370 2004$12 $16 $400 2005$13 $15 $410,Understanding the CPI,Example with 3 goods For good i = 1, 2, 3Ci = the amount of good i in the CPIs basketPit = the price of good i in month tEt = the cost of the CPI basket in month tEb = the cost of the basket in the base period,Understanding the CPI,The CPI is a weighted average of prices change. The weight on each price change reflects that goods relative importance in the CPIs basket. Note that the weights remain fixed over time., U.S.A.: The composition of the CPIs “basket”, Knowledge: the CPI of China,我国居民消费价格指数按用途划分为8大类：即食品、烟酒、衣着、家庭设备用品及维修服务、医疗保健和个人用品、交通和通信、娱乐教育文化用品及服务、居住。根据近13万户城乡居民家庭（城镇近6万户农村近7万户）的消费习惯和支出构成，在这8大类中选择了262个基本分类。每个基本分类下设置一定数量的代表规格品，目前全国有600多种商品和服务项目的代表规格品，作为经常性调查项目。CPI的权重，是依据居民消费支出的比重确定的。,摘自国家统计局网站（2011，9，14）,近年来我国政府统计部门根据居民消费结构的演变调整代表规格品，增加了：汽车、汽油、移动电话、电脑及家庭服务收费、车辆购买使用维修费、电话月租费、有线电视费、非义务教育收费、健身活动收费、物业管理费用、自有住房需缴税费、旅游收费、上网费、物业管理费、教育软件开支等。,2.2 Reasons why the CPI may overstate inflation,Substitution bias: The CPI uses fixed weights, so it cannot reflect consumers ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.Introduction of new goods: The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights.Unmeasured changes in quality: Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured., Knowledge,来自国家统计局城市司（2011,6）的观点：CPI是一个平均的综合指标，而老百姓对物价上涨的感受往往是对单一或几种商品价格变化的感受 普通居民关注的是“吃穿用住行”等与日常生活紧密相关的商品和服务项目,而CPI调查的范围更加广泛CPI涵盖了全国城乡居民消费的商品和服务项目，但对某一个人或某一群体来说，可能其中的部分商品（服务）并不是经常性的消费项目篮子内的权数的确定是一个地方总体消费结构所决定的，和个人的消费结构可能很不一致,摘自国家统计局网站,对比基期的差异。普通居民感受价格变化，对比的基期可能是3、5年前，甚至10年前。而CPI主要公布的是同比、环比指数，对比期分别为上年、上月。 个人承受能力的差异。低收入家庭对食品和水电气等生活必需品敏感；高收入人群对必需品相对不敏感，而他们购买的轿车、手机、电脑、液晶电视等价格又多呈现降价趋势 指数涨幅高并不意味绝对价格也高居民对价格变化的比较是即时的，而物价指数是一个滞后的统计指标,2.3 CPI vs. GDP Deflator,prices of capital goodsincluded in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)excluded from CPIprices of imported consumer goodsincluded in CPIexcluded from GDP deflatorthe basket of goodsCPI: fixed basketGDP deflator: changing basket,拉斯拜尔指数（Laspeyres index）,帕氏指数（Paasche index）,Exercise: Laspeyres index & Paasche index,Consider an economy as following table： Please compute the Laspeyres index & Paasche index of 2011 respectively,Laspeyres indexPaasche index,将2010年的消费组合固定下来计算,2011年名义支出,按2010年价格计算的2011年实际支出,2010年和2011年，均花费了同样的10元来满足效用，但价格指数却反映出了不同的生活成本改变,Two measures of inflation in the U.S.,Percentage change from 12 months earlier,Exercises,说明以下事件对（中国大陆的）CPI和GDP平减指数的影响饭堂提高了饭菜的价格CPI与GDP平减指数都上升万科地产提高了房子的出售价格CPI不变， GDP平减指数上升按国际惯例，CPI不包含购房价格（但为满足国情，现在的CPI中，已经包括了租房和水电气热等方面的价格 ）,19,Exercises,说明以下事件对（中国大陆的）CPI和GDP平减指数的影响由于金融危机，温州打火机出口企业降低了出口产品的价格CPI不变，GDP平减指数下降（假设出口数量不变）台湾果农提高了向大陆出口水果的价格CPI上升，GDP平减指数不变,20,练习：在生活中运用价格指数来思考,1998年珠海某著名IT企业本科毕业生起薪：2200元若仅按工资衡量，今天大学毕业生的生活是更好了还是更差了？2200*536.1/ 438.4=26902200* 2058.9/ 651.2=6956, other price index,PPI，producer price index生产者物价指数衡量企业而不是家庭购买的典型的一篮子产品的价格特殊产品的物价指数食物住房能源,反映一定时期内房地产价格变动趋势和程度的相对数，包括房屋销售价格指数、房屋租赁价格指数、土地交易价格指数和物业管理价格指数。,（上年=100）,（上年=100）,3. Unemployment,大陆：城镇登记失业率数据来自中国统计摘要2010 ；香港：数据来自香港政府统计处网站http:/www.censtatd.gov.hk ；澳门：数据来自澳门统计暨普查局网站 http:/www.dsec.gov.mo,Mainland,Hong Kong,Macao,3.1 Categories of the population,employed working at a paid job unemployed not employed but looking for a job labor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services; all employed plus unemployed persons not in the labor force not employed, not looking for work,Two important labor force concepts,unemployment rate percentage of the labor force that is unemployedlabor force participation rate the fraction of the adult population that “participates” in the labor force, U.S.A. : Population,China : Population,中国统计年鉴,经济活动人口：指在16周岁及以上，有劳动能力，参加或要求参加社会经济活动的人口。包括就业人员和失业人员。,就业人员：指在16周岁及以上，从事一定社会劳动并取得劳动报酬或经营收入的人员。,China: Provincial Unemployment,城镇登记失业率：城镇登记失业人员与城镇单位就业人员(扣除使用的农村劳动力、聘用的离退休人员、港澳台及外方人员)、城镇单位中的不在岗职工、城镇私营业主、个体户主、城镇私营企业和个体就业人员、城镇登记失业人员之和的比。,城镇登记失业人员：指有非农业户口，在一定的劳动年龄内(16周岁至退休年龄)，有劳动能力，无业而要求就业，并在当地就业服务机构进行求职登记的人员。,U.S.A.: Unemployment,Chapter Summary,1.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures both total income and total expenditure on the economys output of goods real GDP values output at constant prices. Changes in output affect both measures, but changes in prices only affect nominal GDP. 3.GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports.,slide 35,CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics,Chapter Summary,4.The overall level of prices can be measured by eitherthe Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of a fixed basket of goods purchased by the typical consumer, orthe GDP deflator, the ratio of nominal to real GDP5.The unemployment rate is the fraction of the labor force that is not employed.,slide 36,CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics,