央行应推行结构性改革应对全球通胀.docx

小企业的税收优惠政策解读我们正面临90年来规模最大的经济衰退和几十年来最强的经济反弹。在世界大部分地区，通货膨胀现处于数十年来的高位，增长预测正在迅速下调。经济形势的突然转变,给央行等部门带来了巨大挑战。我们该从哪里着手应对这些挑战呢？央行首先要关注通胀轨迹。大部分地区的通货膨胀仍会长期处于高位。其次,持续的高通胀增加了从制度转换的风险。其他的结构性变化则增加了体系转换的风险。全球价值链正在发生重组和去全球化。短期内，财政政策仍有望缓冲物价上涨。但长期来看，财政将更加紧张，造成通胀进一步上升。央行要清醒地认识到风险的存在并明确控制通胀的目标。许多新兴国家央行去年开始提高政策利率，发达国家现在也开始提高利率以减缓通胀压力。目前，大宗商品的价格出现大幅上涨。关键产品的供应中断，导致全球产量降低并增加价格压力。全球经济能否实现软着陆呢？目前的通胀率比以前大多数紧缩周期开始时都要高，提高利率变得更加困难。如果供应链冲击迅速减缓，再加上适度的货币紧缩，就可以抑制需求，降低通胀。如果供应链冲击持续存在，需求依然保持高位，则需要加大紧缩。发达国家资产价格的大幅下跌可能引发急剧的衰退和金融压力。新兴市场可能面临更大的风险。央行要准备好应对长期的挑战。央行需要保持独立性,减少对总需求管理的依赖，制定有利于增长的财政政策和推行广泛的结构改革。可持续发展目标可能是重振经济的一个重要机会。同时央行需要建立未来的货币体系。未来的货币体系中，央行占有核心地位，并由私营部门组成丰富的生态系统，帮助用户满足经济需求。总而言之，解决高通胀问题是中央银行最紧迫和重要的任务。经济放缓是不可避免的，金融条件的收紧可能会带来意想不到的溢出效应。央行需要谨慎和渐进地制定政策，减少对财政和货币政策的依赖，并充分利用结构性政策。最后,中央银行在打造未来的货币体系中应发挥积极作用。来源:BIS作者：奥古斯丁卡斯滕斯，国际清算银行总裁以下为英文原文：Inflationisback,challengingcentralbanksSpeechbyAgustinCarstens,GeneralManager,BankforInternationalSettlementsOntheoccasionoftheBank,sAnnualGeneralMeetinginBaselon26June2022LadiesandgentlemenWelcometothepresentationofour92ndBISAnnualEconomicReport.Iamverygladthatwecanmeetinpersonagainaftertwoyearsinavirtualformat.Theextraordinarytimesmakeitallthemoreimportant.WhydoIsayextraordinarytimes?Well,letmetakeamomenttorecapwhathashappenedinthepastfewyears.Strongestglobalreboundindecades,surprisinginflationInmyremarksatthiseventin2019,Imadeseveralreferencestoinflationandinterestrates.Atthattime,thedebatecentredonhowtobringinflationbackuptotarget,andhowtosustainablyraisepolicyratesfromverylowlevelstobuildbuffersagainsttheeffectivelowerbound.Sincethen,wehavelivedthroughthemostsevereglobalpandemicinacentury,thelargesteconomiccontractionin90yearsandthestrongesteconomicreboundindecades.Inthespaceofafewmonths,wewentfromfearsofmassunemploymentandawaveofbusinessbankruptciestoarapid,albeituneven,recovery.Supplychainsthathadcollapsedasfirmscancelledordersweresuddenlyunabletomeetdemand.Bottlenecksemerged,particularlyfordurablegoods.Afterbreachingmulti-decadelows,manycommoditypricestouchedrecordhighs.Andconcernsaboutdeflationgavewaytosurprisinginflation.Amidstthisalreadyturbulentenvironment,theRussianinvasionofUkraineaddedtotheinflationarypressures,particularlythroughitseffectsonfoodandenergymarkets.Inmuchoftheworld,inflationisnowatmulti-decadehighs.Atthesametime,growthprojections,whichwererosyjustafewmonthsago,arequicklybeingdowngraded.Thesuddenshiftsineconomicmomentumhavenaturallyposedhugechallengesforcentralbanksandfiscalauthorities.Policysettingsdesignedtocombatthesharpdownturnsof2020tooktimetounwindasconditionsimproved.Inthemeantime,theyaddedimpetustotheinflationaryrise.Mostcentralbankshavenowfirmlycommitted-throughwordsand,increasingly,throughactions-tobringinginflationbackdowntomoreacceptablelevels.Thus,in2022wearestilldiscussinginflationandinterestrates.Butinaverydifferentsenseandcontextthanin2019.Sowheredowegofromhere?Themosturgentconcernforcentralbanksisthetrajectoryofinflation.Theoutlookisuncertain.Butthemostlikelyscenarioisthatinflationsubstantiallyovershootsmostjurisdictions,targetsforsometime.Thefactorsthatraisedinflationarestillatwork:thepass-throughofhighercommodityprices,stronggoodsdemandandrelatedstrainonsupplychains,sanctionsandbottlenecksinkeyinputs,robustgrowthinmanyadvancedeconomiessupportedbystillnegativerealinterestrates,andverytightlabourmarkets.Withtheprospectofhigherwagesasworkerslooktomakeupforthepurchasingpowertheylost,inflationcouldbehighforlong.Ofparticularconcern,persistentlyhighinflationincreasestheriskofashiftfromalow-toahigh-inflationregime,asanalysedindetailinChapterIIoftheReport.Low-inflationregimestendtohaveself-equilibratingproperties.Wheninflationislow,pricechanges,includingthoseof"salient”itemssuchasenergy,foodandhousing,tendtoleaveonlyatemporaryimprint.Economy-wideinflationislessnoticeable,butalsolessrelevant.Incontrast,inhigh-inflationregimes,householdsandfirmspaymoreattentiontoindividualpriceincreases,especiallyofsalientitems.Atthesametime,thepricechangesofindividualitemsbecomemorerepresentativeofoverallpricepressures.Importantly,transitionsfromlow-tohigh-inflationregimesareself-reinforcing.Asinflationrises,priceincreasescomeintosharperfocus,andmoveoutofthezoneof“rationalinattentionn.Employeesexertmoreefforttorecouplostpurchasingpower,bothactualandprospective.Andfirmsseektoprotectthemselvesfromprofitsqueezes.Thiscombinationcanleadtowage-pricespiralsandmakeatransitiontoahigh-inflationregimemorelikely.Nowthelightsareflashingred.Wagegrowthisalreadyonanupwardtrajectoryinsomecountries.Inmany,thebulkofwagerenegotiationsarestilltocome.Demandsforcompensationforpastlosses,indexationandareturntocentralisedwagebargaininghavealreadysurfaced.Similarly,firmsarefindingiteasiertotranslatehigherwagesintohigherpricesgivenhowgeneralisedpricepressuresareandhowresilienteconomicactivityhasbeen.Other,morestructural,developmentsincreasetheriskofaregimeswitch.Thepandemicandthewarraisetheprospectofnewmodesofoperation,areorganisationofglobalvaluechainsanddeglobalisation.Thismeanslessseculardownwardpressureonprices.Fiscalpolicyisstillexpectedtocushiontheimpactofpriceshocksforessentialitems,atleastintheshortrun.Butintheprocess,theadjustmenttohigherpricesisjustpostponed,andpublicfinancesarestrainedfurther.Ifgrowthslows,fiscaldeficitswillremainhigh,furtherincreasingpublicdebt,withassociatedrisksofhigherinflationdowntheroad.CentralbanksareawaketotherisksInemergingmarketeconomies,tosteminflationandlimitcurrencydepreciations,manycentralbanksstartedraisingpolicyrateslastyear.Advancedeconomiesarequicklycatchingup.Eventually,tighterpolicywillreduceaggregatedemandandsloweconomicgrowth,therebyeasingpricepressures.Buttimeisoftheessence.Inflation-adjusted(real)short-terminterestratesarestillfallingasinflationhaspickedupmorethanpolicyrates.Toavoidentrenchedhighinflation,itwillbeimportanttoheedthelessonsofthe1970s.Theaftermathoftheoilcrisesof1973and1979sawpersistentlyhighinflationandloweconomicgrowth(Graph1).Today,theoilpriceincreaseisrelativelysmallerandtheenergyintensityofGDPmuchless.Atthesametime,amuchbroaderrangeofenergysourcesandagriculturalcommoditieshaveseensharppriceincreases.Andsupplydisruptionsforkeyproducts,suchasfertilisersandmetals,couldlowerfutureglobaloutput,addingtopricepressures.Thekeypositivedevelopmentsincethe1970sisnodoubtimprovedmonetarypolicyframeworks.Monetarygoalsandinstrumentsarenowmuchbetterdefined.Institutionalsetupsaremorerobust.Andcredibilityisstronger.Toavoidtheriskofaregimeswitch,centralbanksneedtocommunicateclearlyandwellthefinalgoal:tobringinflationquicklybacktotarget.Andneedlesstosay,theyhavetoactinconsequence.Experienceshowsthatshorterandfront-loadedtighteningcyclestendtomakesoftlandingsmorelikelythanshallower,butmoredrawnout,tightenings.Cantheglobaleconomyachieveasoftlanding?Thestartingconditionsarechallenging.Inflationtodayishigherthanatthestartofmostprevioustighteningcycles.Publicdebtisalsoatahistoricalhighinmanycountries.Thismakesithardertoraiseinterestrateswithouttriggeringmarketdysfunction.Housepricesandhouseholddebtaregenerallyelevated.Corporateexposureshavegrowninmanyeconomiestoo.Thereisapathahead,butitisnarrow.Inpart,itdependsonwhethersupplyshocksdissipatequickly.Combinedwithamoderatemonetarytightening,thiscouldtemperdemandandlowerinflationwithoutamajoreconomiccontraction.However,iftheadverseshockspersistandaggregatedemanddoesnotslowdownenoughtoalleviatepricepressures,moretighteningwillbenecessaryandaddedpainwillbeunavoidable.Thekeybalancingactincalibratingthepolicyresponsecentresonthefinancialsector-realeconomynexus,withdebtandassetpricesascruciallevers.Oneriskforadvancedeconomiesisthatlargedropsinassetpricescouldtriggerasharprecessionandfinancialstresses.Relatedfinancialstabilityriskscanmanifestthemselvesinunexpectedplaces,notablyamongno-banksandthroughhiddenleverageandliquiditymismatches.Non-bankshavegrownfast.Buttheyaremuchlesstransparentandlesscloselyregulatedthantheirbankingcounterparts.Emergingmarketsmaybeespeciallyatrisk.Theywillfacetighterglobalfinancialconditionsagainstabackdropofsignificantvulnerabilities.Shouldthedollarappreciatefurther,pressureswillmountformany.Despitehavingmovedearlierandbeingbetterplacedthaninpasttighteningepisodes,someemergingmarketshavenochoicebuttoraiseratesfurther,alsoastheirrealratesarestillnegative.Tacklinglonger-termchallengesItisworthmentioningthatoverthepasttwoyears,bothmonetaryandfiscalpoliciesplayedapivotalroleinhelpingeconomiesnavigatethroughtheunprecedentedchallengesthatpresentedthemselves.Evenwithdebtatahistoricalpeak,publicdebtservicingwaseasy,asrealinterestratesweregenerallynegativeandgrowthrateshigher.Butthesupportrandownthealreadylimitedpolicyspaceandaddedtoconcernsaboutfiscalsustainability.Intheshortrun,highinflationhaslowereddebt-to-GDPratios.Butasmonetarypolicytightens,tensionswithfiscalpolicywillemerge.Asmonetarynormalisationgatherspace,growthrateswillprobablybeclosertoorevenbelowinterestrates.Consolidatedfiscalbalanceswillquicklydeteriorate.Achievingfiscalsustainabilityisessential,notleasttorestorebuffersinadvanceoffutureshocksandrecessions.Maintainingcentralbankindependencewillalsobecritical,asmanywillmakelossesintheadjustmentprocess,raisingpoliticaleconomyconcerns.Boostinggrowthiscriticaltoamelioratethesetensions.Itcallsforrelyinglessonaggregatedemandmanagementandemphasisinggrowth-friend1yfiscalactionsandbroadstructuralreforms.Suchmeasureshavebeenabsentformanyyears.Butthesearemoreimportantthanever,withfiscalandmonetarypolicieshavingdepletedmuchoftheirpowertopropupGDP.Amidsignsthatglobalisationmaygointoreverse,avoidingrealandfinancialfragmentationisalsoessential.Theactivepursuitofsharedsustainabilitygoalscouldrepresentanimportantopportunitytoreinvigorategrowth.BuildingthefuturemonetarysystemLetmenowshiftgears.Anothermajorchallengethatcentralbankshavefacedduringrecentyearsisthevigorousbutchaoticeruptionofcryptoassets,stablecoinsandtheirevolutionintodecentralisedfinance(DeFi).Wemeetatatimeofturmoilforcrypto.TherecentTerraLUNAcollapseisonlythemostspectacularoneinthecryptoworld.Manylesser-knowncoinshaveseenpriceslumpsofmorethan90%fromtheirpeakslastyear.However,focusingonpricesalonewoulddivertattentionawayfromdeeperlessonsforthefuturemonetarysystem.Therearemanyfundamentalstructuralflawswithcrypto.Theprevalenceofstablecoinsindicatesapervasiveneedtopiggybackonthecredibilityoffiatcurrencies.Italsohighlightscrypto,slackofthenominalanchorthatonlycentralbankmoneycanprovide.Cryptohasalsoquicklyrediscoveredaneedfortheunitofaccountfunctionofcentralbankmoney.Theproliferationofcoinshighlightsthefragmentationofthecryptoecosystem,withmanyincompatiblesettlementlayersjostlingforaplaceinthelimelight.Nevertheless,weneedtotakenoteofthefeaturesofcryptothathavecapturedthepopularimagination.Inspiteofitsfundamentalflaws,cryptoofferstantalisingglimpsesofpotentiallyusefultechnicalfeatures.Thesecouldexpandthecapabilitiesofthecurrentmonetarysystem.ThevisionforthefuturemonetarysystemlaidoutinChapterIIIfusestheseenhancedtechnicalcapabilitiesaroundthecoreofthetrustprovidedbycentralbankmoney.Welayoutametaphorforthefuturemonetarysystemasatree.Itssolidtrunkisthecentralbank.Butitboastsarichandvibrantecosystemofprivatesectorprovidershelpinguserstofulfiltheireconomicneeds.Inthistree,theecosystemisrooted,figurativelyspeaking,inthesettlementonthecentralbank,sbalancesheet.Someelementsofthepictureofthefuturemonetarysystementailaleapintermsoftheinstitutionsandarrangementsthatgoverntoday,smonetarysystem.Theirusecaseswouldneedtobetestedagainstthecurrentsystem.However,thepathtothefuturemonetarysystemisalongone.Ifwearetomakeprogress,weneedtotakethefirststepsnow.So,whilethesoundandfuryofcollapsingcryptopricesgrabsalltheattention,itisincumbentonusinthecentralbankcommunitytolookaheadtotheselonger-termgoals.ConclusionLetmeconclude.Therearenottwowaysaboutit.Today,tacklinghighinflationisthemosturgentandimportanttaskforcentralbanks.Insomeways,monetarypolicyisinunchartedterritory.Comingafteralongperiodoflowinterestratesandoutofthepandemic,households,firmsandpolicymakersmustrelearntransmissionchannelsandassesshowtheglobaleconomyadjuststonewdemandconfigurationsandsupplyshocks.Whilesomeeconomicslowdownisinevitableandindeeddesirable,unexpectedlylargespillbacksmayfollowfromtighterglobalfinancialconditions.Lackingclearvisionaboutthefuturemaycounselforcautionandgradualism,aspolicytrade-offsarelargerthaninthepast.Butthepremiumisontimelyanddecisive,yetflexible,action.Astheriskofaregimeswitchininflationandrelatedstagflationloomslarge,forcefulactionbycentralbankstodayisoftheessence.Weshouldalsoaccepttherealitythatifwewanttohaveresilient,acceleratedandsustainablemoreeconomicgrowthinthefuture,withopportunitiesforeveryone,weneedtodependlessonthehealingpowersoffiscalandmonetarypolicies.Asfiscalandmonetarypolicyspacehasbeendepleted,thebatonneedstobepassedtostructuralpolicies.Thesepoliciesarehardertoimplement,bothpoliticallyandtechnically.Butthecanshouldnotbekickedforwardforever.Finally,itisuptocentralbankstoplayanactiveroleinforgingthefuturemonetarysystem.Thisisespeciallysobecauseitshouldhaveaskeycomponentscentralbankmoneyandtheinstitutionalandoperationalinfrastructurethatcentralbanksprovide.Thefightagainstinflationandtheforgingofafuturemonetarysystemrepresentdeeplyintertwinedchallenges.Bothissuesaddresscentralbanks'mostfundamentalfunction-topreservethevalueofandtrustintheunitofaccount.Thisiswhatcentralbanksweresetuptodo,andthisiswhatsocietyexpectsfromus.Iamsurewewilldeliver.